Brumbies vs Reds: a lesson for the other provinces

All Australian rugby folk should be tuned in to the Brumbies vs Reds match at Bruce Stadium on Saturday night. These two teams have both been poor in recent years but have turned themselves around to be the jewels in the crown of Aussie rugby.

They have done it without poaching established talent from other states, rather picking up a couple of discards in Mowen and Robinson and identifying young talent and helping them grow. In both instances, they went and found very experienced coaches to guide their young teams.

The Brumbies, although top of the Aussie conference, are yet to beat a banner side this year. Their best credentialed win has been against the Highlanders. They don’t play the Stormers or Crusaders in the regular season and after narrow losses to the other top sides the Chiefs and Bulls away from home – this game looms as a season defining one.

Neutral observers will not regard them as a finals threat if they cannot beat a strong team performing well and this is their last chance to do so before the finals. Their remaining games are against the Rebels, Force, Waratahs and Blues.

The Reds meanwhile had an implosion in the early stages of the season after losing all their 5/8’s. Their forward pack hardly fired a shot but the return of Quade Cooper, Ben Lucas and Mike Harris along with a lift in form from the pack and halfback sees the Reds on the rise.

The match against the Chiefs stands as their exclamation mark on the season so far and leaves most observers in little doubt that the reigning champions will do more than make up the numbers if they can make it into the top six.

Is the run being left too late though? Overall for Aussie rugby a Queensland win gives the greatest chance for two Aussie teams to make the finals. There will be no quarter given though as the Brumbies need to build momentum and this stands as their main chance to do it.

This match is season defining for both sides. If the Wallabies are picked on form it is hard to think the majority of players won’t come from these two sides and there is great competition across the park.

Ewen McKenzie has named a squad of 23 at the time of writing but overall the match ups should look something like this:

Ben Alexander v James Slipper – both are established Wallabies who have their positions under threat. They’ll each be trying to push their causes in this test. Alexander is up against Benn Robinson and Greg Holmes for selection. While Slipper is challenged by Dan Palmer and Sekope Kepu. Slipper in particular will be seeking to exert pressure at scrum time against Alexander who has struggled in this facet of late.

Stephen Moore v Saia Faingaa/James Hanson – Moore is the anointed best hooker in the country, despite the issues with his lineout throwing. He’ll be looking to dominate the two younger rakes who have both tasted Wallaby representation without establishing themselves.

Dan Palmer v Ben Daly/Greg Holmes – Palmer and Holmes I’ve mentioned above. Daly is an interesting case, his scrummaging has been under fire for two seasons now. If he plays against Palmer it will be interesting to see the result. Palmer will be looking to prove he can dominate a weaker opponent.

Sam Carter v Dan Simmons – the incumbent Wallaby lineout leader against a very similar young player. These two are both young and looking to make a name for themselves. The lineout battle should be instructive. Both are mobile but tending to get out muscled in contact, I’m curious to see what happens when they collide as the stronger of the two will be looked at favourably.

Scott Fardy v James Horwill – These are the two second rowers I think should be in the Wallabies next month. 27 year old Fardy has impressed all year and here he gets to face off against the Wallaby captain to show that he is worthy of being brought on for higher honours. He has a chance to force the selectors hand in this game.

Peter Kimlin/Ita Vaea v Jake Schatz/Beau Robinson – I’m surprised Kimlin has been chosen. Fotu Auelua got injured and rather than bringing in a similar strong ball runner in Vaea they have gone with the second row cum backrow Kimlin.

Kimlin will provide an aerial threat at lineout time and a big body around the field. Lately Schatz has been starting for the heavier opening exchanges before being replaced by Robinson.

Beau is building a great partnership with Gill – both will get significant minutes. White may counter the introduction of Robinson with Vaea who has spent time at 7 this year. If Vaea and Robinson are on the field at the same time as Hooper and Gill then watch the breakdown erupt. It may slow the game down and the team that adapts best will have a huge advantage.

Michael Hooper v Liam Gill – this head to head is worth the price of admission alone. Which of these two young openside breakaways will walk away with the edge? Although they are likely playing off to back up David Pocock this season. That won’t be the case soon with all three putting in excellent performances.

Scott Higginbotham v Ben Mowen – Higginbotham is the form forward in Australian rugby, Mowen has his fans and how he fares against his more dynamic opponent will be a signal to whether he deserves a chance at higher honours.

Nic White v Will Genia – Genia has refound form in recent weeks, speeding up his service and scoring some long range tries with his running game. White is probably the second most influential field kicker in Aussie rugby after Mark Gerrard, he controls territory strongly and will want to show up well against a top Wallaby.

Zac Holmes v Quade Cooper – Both are one game into the season, Cooper is established at this level and just working to prove his fitness and regain combinations. Holmes was spoken of glowingly after his debut last week but really needs to bring his backline into the match this week. McCabe only touched the ball three times last week, needs to receive more ball in this match.

Joe Tomane v Digby Ioane – another master v apprentice match up. Tomane has been great ball in hand, can he shut down one of the best runners in Aussie rugby?

Pat McCabe v Michael Harris – McCabe as mentioned will want more ball this week, can he dominate a player most feel is mainly there for his kicking? Harris was good last year with some very direct running he needs to bring that back into his game this season.

Andrew Smith v Anthony Faingaa – another junior Brumby up against a Wallaby. With the Wallaby centre berths some of the most wide open selection decisions to be made these two will both be seeking to stake a claim.

Henry Speight/Tevita Kuridrani v Dom Shipperley/Chris F’Sautia – young speedsters one and all, plenty to get excited about.

Jesse Mogg v Luke Morahan – Mogg has been fading through the season after starting brightly, Morahan has been building after starting slow. Mogg in particular has a huge boot and is an outstanding runner there is plenty to like in this match up.

Steve Walshe is the referee and he is suited to a big game like this. I’m a neutral but cannot wait for kick off.