How to win an AFL Premiership

The Swans are a pretty good example Stewie. Do you think it took Roos until the twilight of his coaching tenure to utilise the draft as a key tool to future success? Post Jude Bolton and pre Garry Rohan they traded away a number of high draft picks and 50 game players to top up with recycled names (many of which you have suggested to be successful). Their terrific culture probably aided in this but Roos and the Swans were criticised for not planning too far ahead until the likes of Rohan, Jetta, Reid, Hannerberry, Johnson, Parker and Mitchell (f/s) were brought in. They look a good crop to carry on the team's success in the medium term.

Ha ha, no probs, was just curious.. didnt recall the Tigers wining a flag anytime since 1980 :-)

Well, the Cats certainly do know how to win a premiership, with what I reckon was impeccable list management.

As good as that win against Geelong was late in 2011 the Swans were not able to back it up. The Cats just powered on after that. McVeigh's daughter was one of the saddest stories I've read in awhile. It was a great win on heart.

Again, neglecting the Swans. Culture: The Bloods culture of everyone putting in 100%, without relying on excessive starpower. Look at the 2005 GF. The Swans won, but Judd won the Norm Smith. Tick Drafting and developing talent: The Swans have done a remarkable job in recycling players (Mumford, Josh Kennedy, Mattner, Teddy Richards, Everitt, Benny McGlynn, Mark Seaby, Matt Spangher, with Morton and Walsh on the sidelines), as well as getting some great talent. Tommy Mitchell will tear it up in 5 years time, and Lewy Jetta is fast developing into a superstar, being 5th on the Coleman playing on the wing/half-forward. Tick Provide leadership: Between 2006-2012, we have always had 2 or more captains (Hall, Barry, Kirk, Craig Bolton, Goodes and McVeigh), so there is no lack of depth in our leadership stocks. And if you need another example, look at Jarrad McVeigh last year, when he led the Swans to beat Geelong at Skilled Stadium in a classic, not long after the tragic death of his infant daughter. Tick

I wonder if you know how Geelong's football department spending compares to other clubs? And Hawthorn's as well? The reason I ask is that I'm not as much of a believer as other people in the theory that money buys flags. Since 2000, while Collingwood, WCE & Essendon all won flags, none won multiple flags. On the other hand, Port won a flag, Sydney won a flag and came close to winning a second, Brisbane won three flags, and St Kilda was unlucky not to have a flag, and possibly two. Where does Geelong and Hawthorn fit in? My assumption is that both are 'upper-middle class', but neither are powerhouses, or at least Hawthorn wasn't when it claimed its flag. Which is interesting, for if Hawthorn only became a powerhouse after 2008, then they have certainly shown that money is just one part of the puzzle.

I'm sick of people bashing clubs and calling them 'crap' for no good reason. The last thing North should have done was hire Fevola. I love Fev. I think he was a fantastic player, and I will forever stand by my view that he, along with Ben Cousins, was one of the two most unfairly demonized Australian sportsmen of the past decade. I will forever defend him against those who attack him, just as I will forever regard the AFL's decision to deregister Cousins to be deplorable. However, the last thing a club should do is make a footballing decision for financial reasons. It never works. Sydney made one when they brought back Lockett in 2002. He went on to kick 3 goals in 3 games, and harmed a forward line that had Barry Hall at Full Forward. Fev might have kicked a lot of goals, but he was admittedly one-dimensional, and so he might not have fit into North's game plan. Their decision not to recruit him, from a purely footballing perspective, may very have been the right one. As much as I hate to admit it, it may be argued that Carlton are better off without him, as they aren't as dependent on a single goal-kicker. Still, he was great. :D If he was the right fit, football-wise, then I would agree that they absolutely should have recruited him. They could have hired him for minimum money on a one-year deal, and if issues arose that they weren't comfortable with (although IMO his issues were highly overstated), then they simply could have chosen not to renew his contract. However, seeing as he was probably not the right fit, to suggest that they should have hired him to 'get bums on seats' is absurd. It's almost as absurd as calling them 'crap', which is also just plain offensive.

Blatant throw from Dawes? I just watched the last few minutes of the drawn grand final and it looked like a handball to me.

Yeah, I agree with you in some ways. I believe the key to winning the premiership is contingent on a number of factors: Culture, coaching, performance, ability, financial situation and in some cases even luck. There are many variables that can determine what happens in an AFL season. Hawthorn would almostly certainly beat GWS this season however things could change that notion such as injuries, differing game plans, etc. In a game involving say, Collingwood and Geelong, any result is possible. There is luck in the draft. Poor old Richard Tambling gets a bit of a hard time for being taken before Buddy Franklin, but sometimes those things work for one team and not so for another. Nothing is set in stone, but overall a combination of a winning culture, talent, good coaching staff, enough cash to throw around and good teamwork should ensure a club success.

Saints are cursed mate too many good sides and players for one flag.

You're right Pickles, it was Steven (Hocking) on the Cats coaching panel. Garry was part time at Essedon briefly with Barnsey.

St Kilda lucked out for sure and may well be cursed. However Lyons made them trust in the defensive game plan, when they needed to take risks. Another thing with Lyons is he concentrated on a small number of goalkickers so his less practiced secondary players such as Dempster dished off, looked for Schnieder, Neek and Milne or missed gettable goals. 22 leaders is essential and a truckload of talent as well.

Luck, karma, fate, a curse? Who knows what separated the saints from one or two flags. Was it the Geelong fan who found himself umpiring the 2009 flag and not actually blowing the blatant free kick to Schneider at the death, despite putting the whistle to his lips. Subconsciously couldn't bring himself to seal the cats second loss in as many years! Was it fate that gave him the opportunity? Or was fate when schneider earlier that year hand clapped an ump sarcastically and put himself offside with officials forever after? Was it the fluky toe poke from Scarlett to ablett after Dawson did so well to leave his man and thump the ball downfield? Was it the goal ump awarding a goal to the clear poster from Hawkins intercept of Dawson's kick out? Or was it karma for Ross Lyon ignoring the saints motto of fidelity and leaving a champion loyal player (hudghton) out for his last game and possible flag medallion, and replacing him with a sick Dawson. Or karma for the coach's personal spat with Luke Ball responsible for leaving a damaging midfielder sitting on the pine for the last hard fought quarter? Or was it fate that the weather gods determined they would favor Geelong and force the saints to play in the rain - something all too common down in Geelong, and never seen at a closed etihad. And again in 2010. The blatant throw from Dawes to Cloke to give the pies that one point lead after the saints had fought back so well to take the lead? Again with the ump in plain sight. And of course the famous bounce from Lenny's kick, just not sitting for Milne to take it on the run and kick the winner? Fate, karma, luck, coincidence, poor umpiring, biased umpiring, or a curse?

Hi Strummer, Tambling at Geelong in the mid 2000s would have been in a better environment (i.e. professionalism, culture, sports science) for him to produce his best as a player. Those names you mention are all premiership players who have also developed their leadership skills in condusive environments. Who knows what would have happened if they played at the Bulldogs but the likes of Smorgan, Eade, West, Grant, Cameron and Johnson have also generated a great club culture.

Hi Lroy, I meant Brendon "Lade"

So, basically 'Shooter' (can we please use real names) you are saying that if the Western Bulldogs had drafted Franklin, Swan, Goodes, Ablett, Judd, Mumford, Scarlett et al there is NO WAY they would have won a premiership without culture and leadership? I am "guessing" that your answer will be "but those players are good examples of leadership etc" which is a bit of a cop out. Do you really believe Richard Tambling would have been a star player had he been drafted to Geelong? I agree that all your key factors are important, maybe, but how about Luck? Luck is a subject few discuss in Aussie Rules. It exists, and luck can build momentum or destroy teams. I would suggest it is a key factor in any algorithm to determine what makes a good side. Personally, I would prefer an article examining Brownian Motion (or Brownlownian Motion) and the innumerous variables of outcomes between a centre bounce and the final siren of a grand final.

"Wayne Campbell and premiership players Justin Leppitsch and Brendan Gale" Dude, when did Brendan Gale play in a premiership side?? I thought he played all his games at Richmond??

It's telling that Bluey was a favourite son at WCE but they didn't want him on the coaching panel. And the Pies didn't seem devastated to lose him either. They've got plenty of work to do.

Winston money comes from crowds and members, perhaps if poor clubs too risks to get bums on seats they could get better coaches? Ie north needs goals an money, who better to deliver both than Fevola? Did they take a risk? NO how about play majak daw for the punters? NO if you take no risks you get no reward I'm sick of winging crap clubs!!!!!!!!!! -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.

All very valid reasons that would strengthen a tilt at a premiership. Money doesn't hurt but I don't think aids in a premiership stoush. North were examples of that in the 90's. No money but built a culture and had talent on the field to win. I think Carlton is an interesting one to throw in the mix. Ratten has been coaching since 07. In this time they have built a strong culture and powerful leadership base, with Kernahan and Ratten as Carlton greats. The likes of Alan Richardson, Gavin Brown and Paul Williams all arch rival collingwood folk but with terrific knowledge of our great game and culture. Since 07 Carlton have drafted names like Kreuzer, Armfield, Ellard, Yarren, Garlett, Robinson, Tuohy, Lucas, Duigan and Curnow. All players consistently in their 22. Judd as an onfiled leader and face of the club is a clear strength but at this point show no sign of a premiership flag playing poor football. Yes injuries have hurt but it all comes back to no structure. The pies are decimated with injury but their structure allows for people to step in and fill a roll and execute a plan. Carlton rely on talent to get them over the line. For me, coaches and their structure to get their team to play 23 rounds of good football and back up for finals is what wins you premierships. No structure = no premiership.