We entered round 13 with premiership chances being given to many teams and the oft-quoted ‘most even season in recent memory’. After watching the Sydney-Geelong game at the SCG on Friday night, we can confidently cross both teams off that list.
The Swans burst out of the blocks with a scintillating seven goal opening quarter against a Geelong outfit containing more purring kittens than ferocious Cats. But as has been their way this year, they once more fell asleep at the wheel, being comfortably outplayed for the last three quarters, and were lucky to escape with a six point victory.
Sydney’s best is as good as any team when on song. When in full flight, Josh Kennedy, Jude Bolton and Keiran Jack dominate in tight, winning multiple clearances in a row, Lewis Jetta sizzles on the outside, and they hit the scoreboard quickly with a spread of goalkickers the envy of most, a league-high eight players having topped double figures so far this year.
But when the Swans aren’t getting the game played on their terms they are staggering vulnerable, and very quickly revert back to the stodgy Sydney of old. As Tom Hawkins showed on Friday night, Heath Grundy, Alex Johnson and Ted Richards can be ill-equipped to handle power forwards getting quick supply.
And what Lewis Roberts-Thompson is doing in the side as a forward is a question for Solomon, especially when he is not acting as the second ruck. There has to be more to getting a game than simply being a good bloke and great club man.
In fact, despite sitting second on the ladder and being something of media darling who love ‘rating’ an ‘underrated’ team, Sydney have won all four quarters in a match only twice this year, with those being against the lowly GWS and Melbourne.
And despite being the most miserly defensive team in 2012, on ten occasions they’ve let through five goals or more in a quarter. Richmond and St Kilda, in particular, made them look extremely ordinary for long periods in dominant victories, and neither of these sides will be finishing in the upper echelons of the ladder.
What the win over Geelong did for Sydney was lock in a home final of some description. But, unfortunately for their supporters, they’ve proven they can’t play consistent football for an entire game. This will be costly in September, and they’ll come unstuck at the pointy end.
Football fans have been waiting for the Geelong empire to crumble, many for long enough to start penning a sequel to Samuel Beckett’s Waiting for Godot.
While I’m not convinced that the empire is crumbling, Geelong won’t be making the top four, and from what we’ve seen this year, couldn’t possibly win the four finals in a row against quality opposition that they’ll need to in order to hold aloft the premiership cup once more.
The Cats are now at least two wins and over twenty percent behind all sides currently holding the top-four positions, with fixtures still to come against Collingwood, Essendon, Adelaide, Hawthorn, West Coast, and Sydney again in their remaining ten games – the top six teams on the ladder.
Geelong are clearly struggling, and in truth have done so all year, with most of their matches following the same formula. They have been outplayed early by an opposition that is harder around the contest, but have gathered themselves and clawed their way back. Ultimately, they’ve either won through courage, class and experience, or just failed to get there against an opposition eager to claim the scalp of the reigning premier.
Consider the Cats record in eight matches against teams currently ranked 12th or higher on the ladder – only twice this year have they been up at quarter time, only once at half time, and only once again at three quarter time. Take out the round four win over Richmond, where they led at every change, and these statistics paint an even bleaker picture.
Their overall record against these teams is 3-5, yet more evidence of a team that won’t be figuring at the business end of the year.
Plenty wrote off Geelong at the start of 2011, only to end up with egg on their face when the Cats claimed the flag.
Because of this, no one wants to make the same mistake halfway through this year. Fear not, because the Cats, just like they were against the Swans, have been too poor early, and have found themselves too far back with too much to do.
Sydney and Geelong fought an engrossing contest on Friday night at the SCG, and each displayed enough reasons to show why they are rated as dangerous contenders.
But for mine, the negatives of both were starkly apparent too, and while both teams might win a final, or perhaps even two, they’ll have no business on the same stage as the likes of Collingwood and West Coast on the last Saturday in September.
Nigel
Guest
At the end of the day the cats lst by 6 points and a late run by the swans. If the result was reversed what would people be saying? I still think right off the cats at your own peril as this team is still capable and experienced and could damage some premiership aspirations come September, bit I agree maybe not win it. Go cats!
tonyb
Guest
I've never heard so much shortsighted opinion in my life! I played the game at a high level and let me tell you all, it doesn't take much to turn things around. The fact that the Swans were TWICE headed in the last quarter against the Cats, and TWICE came back to regain the lead, proves they have character and belief. So to say you can cross them off the list is a perilously premature opinion.
Poohdini
Guest
Not sure why you are having a go for. That article was 9 weeks ago. Everybody wrote off Collingwood. Everyone crossed the bridge & stormed the castle. You are only as good as your current form and the Pies were 1 win from 3 games. These guys who write articles write from a current perspective they can only predict & give an opionion. This article isn't gospel. You don't have to agree nor do you have to read. All the so called experts in the papers said that Carlton & Hawthorn were going to play off in the grand final. Should they stand down as AFL experts? Go Pies! Poohdini Out!
Lroy
Guest
Well written blog sir. I support West Coast and have been saying that to my Victorian buddies for a while now. Not saying the Eagles are the best side in the league or premiership favorites, but given what you have noted, its going to take a good side to beat them :-)
me, I like football
Guest
If the swans are not far off it neither are Geelong who only lost by a goal at the SCG.
Strummer Jones
Guest
How many "holding the ball" frees did Bird get?I didnt think he received any. I looked back on the VCR of this game and stand by my "observation": Bird and McVeigh are struggling. Bird should have held that mark in the dying minutes of the game. Instead he dropped the mark. This is the sort of thing I mean. He only plays well against WEAK opposition . McVeigh is a good player, but his form has dropped badly this year. I just don't seem him do enough in the big games.
pope paul v11
Guest
Geelong certainly have work to do and top 4 looks too far away. Syd certainly good enough to finish top 2, home finals then voila! GF. Pesky WC, ESS, ADE all relatively inexperienced, so experienced Collies best placed to be clear on top for a GF and win. Hawthorn could make top 4 but who cares because North Melbourne are on the way back.
Stewie
Guest
Bird has the most tackles in the team as of 13th June. He's definitely doing something right. Also, as much of a Swan fan as I am, I do see a gap between us and the Pies and WC. However, if we start playing as well in the fourth quarter as in the first (in the last 5 rounds, Swans have kicked 32 goals, averaging 6.4 goals through each of those games), we are unstoppable. Mumford and Goodes are not up to match fitness yet, and will improve. There's my optimism coming through :)
Matt
Guest
I went to the game, on Saturday night and like you say it was a cracking game. After seeing it I now think that the eagles are the real deal. Unspectacular but tough back half, Glorious ruck division, Great inside players Kerr and Pridis, Great Outside runners Gaff, Shuey and to a lesser extent Masten. The one issue they are facing is the loss of Kennerdy, LeCras and Nicoski. They may struggle to kick a winning score against a fully function defence. But writing the Pies off when they didn't have there best player (Pendlebury) and they had three of there best player underdone in Reid, Shaw and Toovey (Who is a lot more important then given credit for). I think that you do so at you peril, the have two gaping holes right now run off half back (Shaw, who wont play in the wing when Pendlebury is in the team and possibly Ben Johnson) and a second key forward ( Dawes just seems to pat the ball instead of mark it). For me the thing that holds Collingwood back right now is the Second Forward / Ruck Position. I actually wouldn't might seeing Tarrant playing forward when he returns as at least he comnads the ball and would run different lines to Cloke, the issue then is who plays second ruck which shows how important Leigh Brown has been the two years prior.
Lachlan
Roar Guru
They talk us down, we rise to the ocassion by becoming victorious. They try to pull us down, we win some more. They try to force us down, and yep, you guessed it, we win again. Don't ever underestimate the "Blood Stained Angels", it's time the haters, start respecting our abilities on the field and off the field.
Strummer Jones
Guest
"...and frankly it makes me sick". Brilliant. Reminds me of Year of the Dogs line "You blokes just make me wanna THROW UP!"
Strummer Jones
Guest
I think they will beat Collingwood at the H, but then some other "the Roar" writer/punter will come along and say they can't win the GF because LRT is still an unreliable player up forward, or some other odd comment. The Swans players I struggle with are actually McVeigh (yes, he is the co-captain) and Bird. It seems that these blokes don't really do much week in week out, or is it just me? You can read the stats all you like - I actually watch the game and I think these guys are struggling.
Redb
Roar Guru
Collingwood fans often lament missed chances to justify their team not playing well. Anzac Day worried them as as kept on coming. I think they struggle with constant pressure.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I will admit to being a humane writer, not willing to risk the lives of my readers. It seems that you've read something else into that statement. They do say that perception is in the eye of the beholder. I will concede that I could have worded my point better, perhaps something along the lines of "I wouldn't risk anyone's life in suggesting that Collingwood can't win the premership, but they are struggling at the moment, and will need to turn around their form. If they do this, they can be a legitimate threat once more." Yes, that's better.
Redb
Roar Guru
Re Bombers, I had us 4-5th at the start of the season. BUT, my top 4 included Carlton and Hawthorn, now the Hawks might still make it, but with Adelaide faltering I think the Dons have every chance as long we win bank the wins we should win. Saints, Doggies, Port, North all should wins. Coll, Haw,Adel & West Coast all potential losses. We beat Carlton, Richmond & Geelong that could be enough. Its going to be close. If we are good enough the draw doesn't matter as you have to play these teams in September anyway.
The Oudsman
Guest
"Are they a premiership threat this year? In the words of ex-Magpie assistant coach Mark Neeld recently, albeit to a different question – not on your life" Sound familiar? Changing your mind is not disallowed, but how can you claim any degree of Expertness when you can throw around such definitive statements, week after week? I do hope the Pies do not win the flag, for your sake, assuming that it is 'your life' you are staking their premiership threat status on. For the world to lose an Expert of such standing at such a tender age... the horror, the horror.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I suppose the point of writing an opinion based on the weekend's matches is to provide some interesting reading for football fans, and perhaps offer some information that they may not otherwise be aware. Oftentimes I will write about matches that were only covered on Foxtel, which some members of the football-watching public don't have. Now I know that you, as a self-proclaimed 'Expert' would have pay TV and probably watch 4-6 matches a week, as well as shows like AFL360 and On the Couch, but not everyone has that luxury. The beauty of football, and indeed all sport, is that it is ever-evolving, and all of us are right and wrong at various points, and a change of mind isn't disallowed. Unless of course you are the one person who correctly tips the outcome of every game each week?
die manschaft
Guest
i agree I still rate collingwood as the team to beat this season (always have) when they kicked the first five goals of the 3rd qtr I thought they'd cruise to an 8+ win, collingwood of 2010 and majority of 2011 would've. But WC, rallied and imo if not some lack of polish in the last 5 mins would've won. the only top side they've comfortably beaten this year is adelaide (who yes have improved but have been flattered by their draw) they could've easily lost to ess, geel and wc.
The Oudsman
Guest
Ah, yes, the standard response. Unfortunately, no one remembers the 'predictions' all you Experts make. There is no accountability in this industry, and frankly it makes me sick. Let me tell you, Cameron Rose, I will hold you to account. You and all the other Experts out there. I too am an Expert, but just don't have it emblazoned on a quasi-banner adorning my face. Didn't you earlier write off Collingwood?
Cameron Rose
Expert
The beauty of ruling a side out is that you won't have any evidence to prove i'm wrong until 5.30pm on September 29 in the unlikely event that Sydney or Geelong win the flag. Of course, neither team will be playing on that day, so i'll be proven right at least a week earlier.