There has been a lot made of the Geelong Cats’ chances, or lack thereof, of defending their flag come the last Saturday in September.
Media personalities such as Mark McClure and Luke Darcy have both come out and said that despite their apprehension at writing off the champion club, the time has finally come for the AFL world to accept that the ‘greatest team of all’, are no longer ‘contenders’, at least for 2012 anyway.
One of the main reasons the Cats’ knockers give for this view is their tough run home, and therefore their likelihood of making the top four is pretty low. We all know how tough it is to win the flag from anywhere but there.
The Cats run home is easy, not by any stretch of the imagination, but compared to the other ‘contenders’ it really is not that much harder.
Considering the ‘experts’ have touted everyone from 1st-9th as genuine premiership contenders at some point throughout the year, I have compared these sides’ runs home. What you’ll see is that the Cats aren’t that much worse off than everyone else. Except the Crows.
The ‘pride of South Australia’, on current form, should only drop two games from here on in, these being West Coast at home which is definitely winnable and then Geelong away, which many people would have them as favourites for.
Below is the current Top 9’s run home, with the amount of games they have against fellow Top nine teams in brackets.
COLLINGWOOD (7): Freo (H), Carlt (H), Geel (A), Hawks (H), GWS (A), St K (H), Swans (A), Nth (H), WCE (A), Ess (A)
SYDNEY (6): GWS (H), B.L (H), WCE (A), St K (H), G.C (A), Carl (A), Coll (H), W.B (A), Haw (H), Geel (A)
ESSENDON (6): W.B (H), St K (A), Port (A), Geel (A), Haw (H), Adel (A), Nth (H), Carl (H), Rich (A), Coll (H)
WEST COAST (5): G.C (H), Nth (A), Syd (H), Adel (A), B.L (H), Freo (A), Geel (H), Port (A), Coll (H), Haw (A)
ADELAIDE (3): Rich (H), Port (A), GWS (A), WCE (H), Geel (A), Ess (H), Freo (H), B.L (A), Mel (A), G.C. (H)
HAWTHORN (6): Carl (A), GWS (H), W.B (A), Coll (A), Ess (A), Geel (H), Port (H), G.C (H), Syd (A), WCE (H)
GEELONG (7): Port (H), G.C (A), Coll (H), Ess (H), Adel (H), Haw (A), WCE (A), St K (H), W.B (H), Syd (H)
ST KILDA (5): Nth (H), Ess (H), B.L (A), Syd (A), W.B (H), Coll (A), Melb (H), Geel (A), GWS (H), Carl (A)
CARLTON (5): Haw (H), COLL (A), Nth (A), W.B (A), Rich (H), Syd (H), B.L (H), Ess (A), G.C (A), St K (H)
The Cats, along with Collingwood have the most games of anyone against other top sides. However, what you would have noticed from the fixtures above, everyone on the top half of the ladder (except Adelaide) have pretty tough runs home.
The good news for us fans is, we have a plethora of huge games coming up over the next couple of months with so many of the top teams coming up against each other.
Now, I agree with much of the media that the make up of the eight looks pretty concrete at this stage with probably only eighth spot up for grabs. However, where each of the Top 8 sides finish is anyone’s guess with the amount of blockbusters we are in store for.
Chris Scott has said all year that the Cats, like they always do, are aiming to play their best footy at the business end of the year. With their next two games being gimmes against Port Adelaide and Gold Coast, they will then hit two massive games against the ‘Pies and ‘Dons.
Even if they lose both of these, they then have three of the remaining seven games at Kardinia Park, and games against West Coast at Subi, against their bunnies the Hawks at the ‘G and then St Kilda at Etihad.
At this stage, I think they will drop the games to West Coast and Collingwood and therefore finish on 15 wins, probably placing them fifth or sixth on the ladder post-Round 23. However, if they can knock off Collingwood they should be in the top four.
Wherever they finish and whoever they play in September, whether it be in Week One or Week Four, their opposition will be cursing their luck.
If Geelong can avoid a do or die match in Perth in the first two weeks of the finals, in my opinion they will be playing in the preliminary final week. Considering they have won four of these in five years you’d have to back them to win one again.
On top of this, if the Cats do make the top four it means they are well and truly flying after a huge final 10 weeks to the home and away season and would be close to flag favourites at the start of September.
We all know finals are a different kettle of fish, and those that have been there and done it before are priceless in the big moments. Although the Cats have lost a couple of these players since last year, they still have them in abundance, and very good ones at that.
Mark McClure said as hard and sad as it to say, the best of the Cats is now well and truly behind us. Maybe it is, but even if they can be just 90% of the quality of the side who has won three of the past five flags, then they will give it a big shake in September.
I, for one, have not written them off and think they’ll clip the Eagles wings on the biggest stage of all, hopefully taking the Pies’ scalp with them along the way!
swannies05
Roar Pro
WC, the real question for you is, can WCE win on the biggest stage of all. If you can get a Top 2 finish then you should be in the GF, but if I'm right, will you beat those Cats in Melbourne?
TomC
Roar Guru
50/50 to make the eight from here, I'd have thought.
WC
Guest
For mine, the big question is how the Cats, Pies and Swans all fair over at Subi.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Swannie for god'ssake don't think, not when it comes to the Swans? Do you think Grundy thinks? Actually while we are on it Hannebury should think because he is a nightmare at delivering when he has people in the clear. I should explain I've followed North forever and they remain the ultimate but having Sydneysided since Capper was in short pants I follow the swans avidly. I'm actually partial to Collingwood by marriage. In general terms GWS and GCS are great fun as underdogs but the rest can all get nicked, no matter how good they are, so stuff WCE XII as well.
Stats Man
Guest
Change the figures to see who plays the top 5 (normally should be top 4, but include Adelaide due to equal points) teams and it looks a little more interesting.
swannies05
Roar Pro
Haha, I like your attitude Pope. And believe me I love supporting the Swans because we are never out of the contest and almost always play to our potential (look at our success of making the 8 since '96). I also wish I was swannies0506, but beating that West Coast side in '05 then almost again in '06 is proof that we take it up to the best teams in the comp, their midfield had to be one of the best of all time (Cox, Cousins, Judd, Kerr, Braun, Embley), We also knocked off the mighty Cats down at The Cattery last year, the first team to do so in years so my heart says we can do it again come Rd 23 but my head tells me differently unfortunately.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Well put but come on Swannies05 it's this sort of high regard for the opposition that's the reason you're not called Swannies0506. Your boys are in the box seat to take spot one or two and you're willing to concede to Geelong, a likely opponent? For god sake don't give them any extra oxygen. Looking at your excellently compiled list, expect Essendon to slide and North and Richmond to oust St K and Carlton.
swannies05
Roar Pro
Thanks Turnover. Only time will tell if I'm right, but your right about Carlton only having the 5 games against top teams, if they play anything like they did in the first few rounds of the year, then I think St Kilda will definitely be the unlucky ones who miss out.
Turnover
Roar Guru
Strong analysis. It's clear that the run home for the whole top 8 (minus Adelaide) is tough. It probably is worth noting that the two teams below Geelong only have 5 top 8 games to go though as opposed to Geelong's 7. But as shown, one of those games for St Kilda is away against Geelong. Well researched. If anything, this article shows that we are in for some good footy and given everyones run home, i agree, it would be unwise to discount the cats.
Good Old Collingwood 4eva
Guest
Pies will win the flag this year. You heard it here first.
swannies05
Roar Pro
It's a good point Keagan, but as the draw shows, all of the sides have a tough run home so I don't think any of the sides in this year's comp can have the luxury that the Cats and Pies had last year, even West Coast and Collingwood who have been so hamstrung by their injury list. If the Cats get there, they will be just as fresh as anyone else, except those bloody Crows!!
Keagan Ryan
Roar Guru
Even if Geelong pull one out of the hat and make top 4, they would've expelled too much energy doing so. The reason they knocked off the Pies last year was because they rotated and rested everyone. Enabling them to stay fresh in September. This year they won't be afforded that luxury. Another huge problem is the lack of Brad Ottens.