And so it has come down to this. After all the talk, all the press, and all the mind games, we head to Brisbane for the deciding match of the 2012 State of Origin series.
The pinnacle of the rugby league calendar has lived up to expectations yet again. While you could argue that the quality of attacking football hasn’t been the very best we’ve seen at this level, the defence has been exceptional. And the tension, the drama, the intensity and the passion have all been of the highest standard.
The New South Wales team has improved tremendously, and shortened the gap between them and Queensland. But they must win in Brisbane, or everything positive they’ve done in the series, and the ground they’ve made up on Queensland, will be completely forgotten.
Meanwhile, Queensland will be buoyed by playing in front of their home crowd, and motivated to farewell Maroons legend Petero Civoniceva in style. There is also the small point of them chasing a seventh consecutive series win.
So, who’s going to actually win the match, and the series? Let’s analyse the key question for each team:
Do NSW know how to win?
It’s a fairly broad and loaded question. However, it’s quite evident to me that the Blues have forgotten how to win. And while that may be understandable given the last six years of Origin football, it won’t be an excuse should they lose game three.
The Maroons were completely out on their feet in the last quarter of game one, but the Blues couldn’t land the killer punch. They were extremely hesitant in attack, a fact best illustrated by Gallen’s decision to kick for goal forty metres out, despite his kicker, Carney, looking rattled all night.
In game two, the Blues should have won by 20 points, but they allowed a soft try on halftime, and though they weathered the expected late onslaught from the Maroons, they could have easily lost a game that they had dominated.
And in both games, the Blues fifth tackle options have been terrible. There has been a lack of variety in their kicking, with bombs the predominant weapon of choice, though often kicked right down a Maroon throat.
It all indicates that the Blues are a team that has forgotten what it takes to win.
Two key ingredients to winning Origin football are mental toughness and execution. NSW will be tested heavily in Brisbane on both of these qualities.
The Maroons will be fired up to play in front of their home ground, and to send Petero Civoniceva out of the Origin arena as a winner. The crowd will be baying for Blues blood. The refs will favour the home team. The environment will as hostile and intimidating as anything the NSW players have ever faced.
In that cauldron atmosphere, with pressure at its absolute highest, will NSW keep their composure and execute their game plan? In essence, do the Blues know how to win?
Is Queensland’s form thus far an indicator, or an aberration?
The Maroons have not played well in the series. It’s a credit to their talent and their heart that they head to Suncorp Stadium still favoured to win their seventh series in a row.
So, are Queensland due for a big game? Or should we judge them on their form?
Queensland are due for a big game. They possess far too much talent, plus a winning mentality, for them to play three consecutive bad games.
However, you can’t ignore the fact that they haven’t played well yet, and need to factor in what effect the Blues have had on their performances. It’s easy to say a team hasn’t played well, but that rarely gives the opposition the credit they deserve for ensuring the other team hasn’t played to their potential.
For example, Cooper Cronk has had a sub-par series, but the Blues rangy backrowers have done a great job of not allowing him a lot of room with the ball in hand. It’s cut down on the amount of time he has to make a decision and then execute it, and he therefore has rushed some plays.
Is that a case of Cronk not playing well, or the Blues not allowing him to play well?
In any case, despite not playing anywhere near their potential, the Maroons won game one, and could have easily won game two. This suggests that the Maroons will only require minimal improvement to win in Brisbane and extend their dynasty.
But will the Blues let them get better?
Prediction?
The heart says NSW. The head says Queensland.
When you’re making a decision, you should always attempt to make it with rational, rather than emotional, thinking. If that was the case, I’d pick Queensland.
They’re more talented. They’re playing at home. They know how to win. They’ll be motivated to send Petero off as a winner. Above all, they’re a truly great rugby league side.
And yet, I’m picking the Blues.
I could defend that decision from a rational point of view quite easily: the Blues have been the better team across the two opening games. Even the most ardent Maroons fan would admit that.
But I’m predicting the Blues will win from an emotional point of view.
Not because I’m from New South Wales and therefore being bias; though I’m sure Roarers north of the border will understandably jump on me for that.
No, the truth is that I get a feeling about this Blues team. Nothing rational, just pure emotion, based on a notion that this team is different to previous incarnations, and has a sense of destiny about it.
It’s the Blues time. Finally.
New South Wales Blues: 16
Queensland Maroons: 12
Dean - Surry Hills
Guest
Hilarious. You had the makings of a full article jdubya.
Yoda
Guest
NSW need it more, but the force is strong with Queensland. I see some emotional moments in this one. Much heartache.Surely Queensland won't put 3 average games together. Because by their standards, games 1 and 2 were definitely average. With the buoyancy provided by the home crowd, Queensland will be charging on all cylinders. A wise Jedi once told me, never underestimate a home crowd advantage in an origin match, be it interstellar or interstate. A stadium full of rednecks baying for blood will surely cause disturbances in the force that will ripple to the centre of the universe. In conclusion, please do it this time NSW. If you can overcome a turn up on the night Queensland and a hostile Suncorp crowd, then a series victory will wash away the pain of at least 3 of those series losses. Don't ask me how i came to that number, it just works for me.
Dan
Guest
Hahahaha jdubya I hope you're right hahaha Go the blues!! -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
sheek
Guest
Guys, I adopted the smart-arsed humour because..... well because I have no idea who's going to win. Logic says it's going to be an arm-wrestle point-for-point until the final whistle. One side of the Tweed is going to be awfully disappointed. Especially the cockroaches if they can't break the stranglehold for another year. If the canetoads lose, you might at least expect them to be philosophical. My gut feeling, dare I say it, is that NSW's misery will extend another season......
WQ
Guest
Oh what a relief, after all this Thurston plays on his own and we still win! We were down at half time because Thurston got 10 mins in the bin and whilst he was off the field NSW scored 4 un-converted tries, apparently Carney crumbled under the pressure and missed them all from straight in front! QLD 18 - NSW 16
jdubya
Guest
My predictions for game 3 at Lang Park: - Queensland will have to farewell Neilson, Hodges, Tate, Hannant, Harrison and Shillington as well as Petero and Mal. - Brent Tate will snap the ironing board that connects his head to his spine - Boyd will be spotted crying into Big Mal "Not Quite Immortal" Meninga's bosom at half time - Inglis will return to his pie eating ways and go walk about half way through the first half - Petero will get lost on his way to the bathroom from bed on game day after he forgets to take his alzheimers medication - Thaiday will punch the ref in the back of the head and get sent off after mistaking him for an unprepared opponent - Dave Taylor will give a Woman's Day special about how he is depressed and how the Maroons bonding has focused on sharing their feelings - Ben Teo will attempt to bring the haka to Origin and pull his hamstring in the process - NSW will dominate the Maroons forward pack a.k.a the Queensland Bingo society - Cronk will tackle the camera man after he mistakes him for a NSW player, without the ball, going for a try - Cameron Smith pulls out with 5 minutes to kick off after he remembers that he forgot to lodge his tax return - Thurston will end up playing by himself in the middle of the field after he realises that without Smith and Slater he has nobody to play with - ORIGIN IS DEAD headlines in the Courier Mail for months after QLD lose NSW 56 - QLD 0
I'mastormtrooper2
Guest
Mushy, no need to take your shirt off mate ... My opinions are mearly an expression of my interest in rugby league of 50 years, and not that I have ever played the game, I'm only giving a point of view - It doesn't mean I'm right, or you for that matter ... Billy is the current Dally M winner and fullback ... In 2012 Slater is currently sitting at #2 in the Dally M's, has played SOO and is now out injured ... His first six games of the season was so outstanding the media touted him as a future immortal ... This week he was rated at #29 of the 101 best ever players, ahead of every other player in the game today ... My comments was to throw it out there, what I was stating was the obvious differences between the styles of play and athleticism of the two men, because you appear to overlook that perspective ... Greg, can't do what Billy does and visa versa, and there are obvious physical reasons for that ... There are still 10 games before the 2012 finals begin and it's anyone's guess of who will become de munk, de munk, but I hoping and wishing that the Maroon's win Game 3 and Melbourne Storm take out the Premiership ...
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Sheek, Congratulations, you are the winner of todays cliche bingo !
mushi
Roar Guru
Really Slater does more than just take high balls? Here I was thinking he got all those accolades for diffusing 5 or 6 bombs a match. Well blow me down. Next you’re going to tell me they play with a oval shaped ball in this crazy game! I was responding to Ryan’s comment of “A large reason why the NSW bombs have been so ineffective is because Slater can get to open space so quickly.” Perhaps you best check the video of the comment before mine? There was no jack rabbit, player rating or rexona athlete mention in sight. That said Slater would be the first to say he has been below his best. In neither game was he the play making jack rabbit rexona endorsing god beast that he can be, part of that was NSW shutting down the outside ball and part of that seemed to be that he was uncharacteristically out of position. his positioning for kicks in particular in game two seemed very very off - not bombs but deep kicks where he should be all over it. Whether it was injury or not it still happened. Also I did say: “I have no doubt that if he was healthy he’d do a great job and put those two matches behind him” In other words I think regardless of if it was Inglis or slater at the back we would get more from the fullback position this game and the bright side is GI gets the ball a bit more often.
mushi
Roar Guru
I think speed is more of an asset when fielding deeper kicks (more area to cover fewer people to cover it). The flip side of the GI Slater comparison on the bomb is their size difference means “in position” is a very different thing. GI doesn’t need to be in quite the same spot as Slater to get to the same ball. Whilst I’m hoping he doesn’t go the one hander all night Wednesday that did show the difference that standing reach brings. Agree his speed on the counter big gap but Slater hasn’t given any of that yet this series, Billy hasn’t been Billy. Which is odd given his club form. You can credit NSW with a lot of the subduing of the QLD ball players and creating errors there, but Billy’s have been more of his own making getting out of position in Melbourne in particular. The injury didn’t help but he didn’t look that great prior to it either.
I'mastormtrooper2
Guest
mushy - Perhaps you'd be best checking out the video's of game 1 and 2, because Slater does more on a footy field then just take high balls ... When I read the player ratings he scored 7.5 - 8 for game 1 and made two errors in the air ... In game 2 he was rated a 5 and a 7 in the player ratings I read, attacked every high balll that came his way, supported play and tackled as well as anyone on the field, on one leg for 3/4 of the game ... Billy Slater as an athlete would run circles around any player in the game, if his performance on Rexona's Greatest Athlete is an indicator ... Greg Inglis wouldn't go within cooee of Slater on that score, because their statures and their approach to playing are so very different ... Billy Slater is 29yo, 5' 10" and 14 stone and Greg Inglis is 24yo, 6' 5" and 16.5 stone ... The general concesus is that Slater, the mischief maker, plays like a jack rabbit for 80 minutes - weaving his way through the manouvres, injecting himself into play, as in Game 1 when two of his off loads resulted in tries ... Inglis a more flagmatic character, hangs back, reserving his energy, awaiting the set plays to inject himself from the back to run around the defence to score ... Due to the heavy defensive duties in Game 2, Greg Inglis was unable to get his attacking game into many plays, he became worn out and weary, but he wasn't alone ... In game 2, the NSW's big men, hurt the attacking force and structure of Qld, and tomorrow night will be the only proof that Queensland can take out their 7th series in a row, with or without the best fullback in the business sitting in the stands ... Or whether Greg Inglis takes the opportunity to steal the game away from the Blue's, as Slater has done many times ... Maybe it just boils down to Slater has the football brain and Inglis has the footballl brawn !!!
WQ
Guest
Your not on the right track Boydy, we were talking about players abusing Referees on the paddock not anything anybody had said in the media. What is said after the game is done by reporters or bloggers like ourselves that have very little influence on the result or the behaviour of our kids when they are playing the game. Unfortunately Gallen's spray of Referees can influence the result and our kids!
Jesse James
Guest
Like it or not the first box to check in 99% of big match's is to bash the opposition out of the game, Rugby League is a collision sport, amost to the point of being a combat sport. My mind drifts back to when NSW last attempted to check this box, you know when Hodges, Taiday and Co' carried on like pork chops. Unfortunately the NSW forward pack really didn't belive they were up the task and the fullback was left to the duty of bringing back" that bomb". I know there are some players from that pack playing tomorrow night, but even the the most hardened QLD supporter would have to begrudingly admit this NSW forward pack is an entirely different proposition. The intensity and the determination to be physically dominant has been the foundation on wich this team has built. NSW will win in a bruising encounter. BLUES 20+ YEEHAA
Brett McKay
Expert
Sheek, next flight to Brisbane please. Channel Nine need your insight....
Dan
Guest
Cheers guys Yeah I forgot about the sin bin of Jennings eaglejack -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Bretty McKay would call that a "Brayshaw-ism"!
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
It was actually more of a compliment to Slater than a dig at Inglis, Mushi. I'm not saying it will be an issue for Queensland, it's just Slater is so fast that he gets into position to diffuse bombs, AND counter-attack straight away. I don't think GI will be that fast. But having said that, his strength enables him to counter-attack without a running start, so it's much a muchness.
steve b
Roar Guru
your right Ryan Pearces kicking game is the one thing that worries me ,he cant seem to find open space or turn the fullback around,, i just hope Sticky has been in his ear about mixing it up a bit ,,and not to kick short to GI ,,he is devastating when he gets the chance to run onto the ball at speed ....
sheek
Guest
Well Ryan, I'm going to have a stab at this. I reckon the team with the most points at the end of the match will be the winner..........
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Thank you Spek! First compliment I've had from a Queenslander in awhile!