NSW Blues fans in Channel 9’s live audience of The Footy Show cheered wildly last Thursday when it was revealed that Billy Slater was officially ruled out of Origin III.
Had they known that he would be replaced at the back by Greg Inglis, their roars might have collectively faded to a hush.
Inglis has been relatively quiet for Queensland in this year’s series but the switch from centre to fullback should ring alarm bells for NSW. It seems the genius of G.I. cannot be shackled when he’s operating from the rear of the field.
He has been sensational at No 1 for South Sydney this year, averaging the most tackle busts as well as line breaks of all fullbacks in the NRL this season – including Slater.
That’s a pretty awesome form line and when you consider that Inglis has scored a record 14 tries in just 17 Origin games, NSW will be flat chat keeping him away from the try line tonight.
In short, the spontaneous brilliance and blinding speed of Slater has been replaced by the brute strength and power of man mountain Inglis.
With a licence to roam and bob up anywhere in attack, Inglis looms as the No 1 bogeyman for the Blues. If he times his runs to explode onto passes from the likes of Cam Smith and Johnathan Thurston, NSW will be back-pedalling for large periods of play.
There are a number of reasons why I think the Maroons will win tonight and the decision to switch Inglis to fullback is at the top of my list. Ben Barba’s time will undoubtedly come in Origin football. Greg Inglis’ time is now…
I expect the Maroons, with the home ground advantage, will hit peak form when it matters most. They have been below expectations in the first two games but the prospect of winning a seventh successive series will drive them back up to their awesome best.
As I see it, the big pressure is on Ricky Stuart and his Blues. They are desperate to win this game which is seen by many as the biggest Origin game in history.
Desperation was a huge part of NSW’s makeup in the corresponding game last season and we all recall how a cool Queensland combination blew them off the park with a faultless, 24-0 first half blitz.
Petero Civoniceva’s final Origin game is also going to play a huge part in tonight’s outcome. The much loved and respected front rower deserves a fitting exit from rugby league’s showpiece arena and his Maroon mates will perform accordingly so that he gets a replica farewell to legend Lockyer enjoyed last year.
If Petero manages to barge over for the opening try – any try – the crowd reaction at Suncorp will probably be heard even without TV or radio in Sydney.
The NSW kicking game has been bordering on dreadful in the opening two games of the series.
Can you believe the Blues have yet to enjoy a repeat set from trapping Queensland in-goal in either of the first two games? By contrast, Queensland earned three repeat sets in Game 1 and six in the Sydney game.
As tactical kickers, Mitchell Pearce and Todd Carney are not in the same league as Maroons trio Smith, Thurston and Cronk.
Like all league fans, I am keenly awaiting tonight’s blockbuster which will deliver all it promises and probably much, much more.
The Blues have made up a lot of ground on this remarkable Queensland team but I just can’t see them winning tonight. Queensland by seven.
Punter
Guest
What a classic!!! Pftttt. Talk it up Tim. It was close in result but in term of contest it wasn't. As someone commented after the European championship final Spain is playing Chess while the rest of world is playing Draughts. In a game where the biggest representative game is between 2 states only (tiny sport), Queensland was playing another game. Queensland always looked threatening & able to create something, NSW was unimaginative & just took the ball up in the 2nd half. Like I said this is a very average NSW side. In the 2nd half they were bunched up in attack & relied on kicks as any form of imagination. I just wished the Tour de France started earlier on SBS.
Carlos
Guest
I really want NSW to win and think this is probably their best shot in years but..... Realistically they wont for the following reasons 1. QLD have the discipline and experience based on most of the squad playing together for years. This is a huge advantage. 2. They also have the best in form players in the world playing in the key positions in Smith Thurston and Inglis. 3. Full back, Neilsons' selection over Barba is logical, as he as a storm player and will slot easily into the existing structures of the QLD team allowing Inglis to play the key role of fullback rather than Barba the outsider. His selection also represents a strategic puzzle for Stuart, played wrong and the results could be devastating for NSW. 4. Homecrowd - There is no question that the Suncorp crowd sways the referees and particularly touchies as they are only human. Tony Archer has consistently been shocking from a NSW point of view at Suncorp. If they can pull it off it will be one of the all time great upsets regardless of what Sydney media is trumpeting.
Tim Prentice
Expert
Take your blindfold off Punter and you will see two excellent teams going at it tonight. If you think one of the teams in action is average, give it a miss altogether. I won't be - this one will be special.
Punter
Guest
How many NSW players would get into the Queensland side outside maybe 1 or 2 backrowers & most of them are thugs, but then again, it's the only way NSW can win by Thuggery & I'm a NSW supporter?? Yes pump it up all you want, it screams out average.
Tim Prentice
Expert
That's your opinion and in mine, a very average one at that.
steve b
Roar Guru
oooooh Nasty !!
Lowdown
Guest
No no no no no, Tim. Don't you know that NSW has to win. The NSW media says so. And one more thing: Does anyone else find it odd, that after last years series loss, and so far being 1 win and 1 loss in the current series, that the level of adulation and respect given to Ricky Stuart is disrespectful to Mal Meninga - the next immortal, and coach of side whose won six series in a row! Incredible! No wonder QLD will come out tonight and smash the Blues, and with it, Sticky's coaching career to smithereens. They deserve as much.
jameswm
Guest
1. Qld are at home. 2. Qld have 4 players better than NSW,s best. 3. Qld are far superior at 9, 6 and 7.
Punter
Guest
It will only be a classic in the eyes of the journalist pumping up this game. This is a very average NSW side!!!
Dayer
Guest
Typical NSW.
steve b
Roar Guru
Content Brilliant !
Real Deal
Guest
You ever get the feeling that if NSW is to win tonite and break the streak something freaky has to happen (ala Darren Lockyer game 3, 2006 swooping on a crook pass)
The Barry
Roar Guru
I saw the start of Game 3 from last year on tele last night. Everyone remembers that QLD scored a lot of points early but I was gobsmacked at how aggressive they were in defence. Every kick had three or four players chasing and just BELTING the Blues back three. Every NSW forward charge was met by defenders tearing up out of the line to smash 'em. It was literally awesome. The Suncorp crowd whipped them into a frenzy (imagine if they had a real stadium and an 84,000 crowd). It's good to be confident but hopefully the Blues aren't lulled by their win in Game 2 and have watched the opening of Game 3 2011 a couple of times this week and know what they're in for. It will be a good barometer of intensity if Grant v Petero happens again at the start of the game.
Roarsome
Guest
Golden point is in because QLD retained the shield twice when NSW was unable to win it back so NSW changed the rules. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
Dayer
Guest
Thanks for the info' on the golden point, I did not realise that golden point rule was in. WHY!!!?
Dayer
Guest
You do really mean "GRUBby" play and not grubber ... LMAO good luck you'll need it Go the mighty QLDERS.
Dayer
Guest
Unfortunately AH missed Carney madly in the second game that led to a try. I think he was playing with an injury
spek
Guest
I take your point about things like hometown advantage and there being worse choice than GI at fullback etc but still the stats from SOO One and Two simply do not lie. NSW forwards have got on top of the Qld pack early and Qld have not been able to recover. If the NSW forwards play as well as they have in game one and two it is hard - but not impossible - to imagine Qld coming away with win - even giving them six point home ground start imho. We can speak about what might have been: Dave Taylor big origin disappointment, Harrison out, Thaiday and Parker surely not 100% etc but the fact is the NSW have a v well balanced pack compared to last year: much bigger (Trex and Tamou) and atheletic and replacing Enis with Farah has vastly improved NSW attacking options out of dummy half. Obviously Qld can still win this but somehow they must match NSW pack in that crucial opening 20 mins. and give Cronk and Thurston some clean air so they scheme on the edges of the ruck which they do so well. but only if the Qld forwards give them a platform. forget what the bookies say NSW should be firm favorites tonight on the form they and Qld have shown all series. Spek
Tim Prentice
Expert
Agree with you Tony. I also have a hunch that Ricky & Co have over-cooked the intensity which could lead to a fatal error at crunch time. If I am reading it correctly, the Maroons will be fired up but RELAXED in front of their full house while the Blues will be drenched with intensity. In any case, I am eagerly awaiting this one. It has all of the ingredients to be the classic of classics. By the way, golden point will apply tonight if the teams are level at the hooter.
steve b
Roar Guru
Hi dan everyone who is saying it,,,knows that GI is one of the most devistating runners in the game ,,he has been going great with Souths and is a real danger at fullback in attack ,however if the blues put him under pressure with some grubers and low kicks away from him it will be interesting to see how he handles it ,,he has done well under the high ball and his postioning has been pretty good but NSW cannot give him easy options or he will make us pay...