This season’s AFL season has been branded as the most competitive in recent memory, and rightfully so. Currently only four wins separate the Swans in first place from Fremantle in twelfth.
No gulf so narrow has been seen at this point in the season during this millennium, although there have been a few instances where as few as six wins separated teams in the same ladder positions.
Having such an even spread of competition has certainly provided no shortage of drama or unpredictability to this point in the season, and many have praised the fact that the premiership currently seems to have many suitors.
But just as a field this tight has provided the AFL with a season packed full of unpredictability, it has deprived it of elements that can elevate contests to another level.
The perfect counterpoint to the season we have seen this year was 2009, which consisted of a two horse race throughout. From the NAB Cup (won by Geelong) to the conclusion of the regular season (with St Kilda as Minor Premiers) it was clear to see that the league consisted of two powerhouse teams and a collection of pretenders.
Whereas this year has provided intrigue and speculation as to who could win, 2009 consisted of six months of anticipation as the two sides were slowly drawn towards the 26th of September. Such a clear demarcation in the ladder as we saw in 2009 affords both the journalist and the spectator alike plenty of time to make their minds up on teams well before Spring.
When teams play as consistently as St Kilda and Geelong did in 2009, it only serves to reinforce whatever we believe about them. With every consecutive victory the Cats and Saints amplified the emotions surrounding each team, until, by grand final day you could barely hear yourself think amid the cacophony of tall poppy syndrome and desperate dreams.
The presence of such clear-cut league leaders is an essential ingredient in two archetypal matches: the blockbuster, and the boilover. By the time St Kilda and Geelong collided in round 14, the sides had already separated themselves from the pack with a perfect 13 wins from 13 rounds.
The match, which drew a record crowd of 54,444 to Etihad Stadium, failed to disappoint, with the end result being a match between two super teams that was hard to equal. Each team went on to power through to the grand final, providing the match that had been most anticipated for the majority of the season.
It is certainly true that some great teams seem to lose their grasp on destiny, and falter in September when they seemed certain to succeed. But upset matches are only improved by the oversized Goliath provided by a clear favourite in the regular season.
Which leaves us where we started, where we are now: the 2012 season. Every Sunday night provides a radically different ladder, and the outcomes of each contest are largely opaque until the ball is bounced. It has provided supporters from a variety of clubs with legitimate hopes of a flag, but at what cost?
Is it possible to have a blockbuster match, or an upset when you genuinely don’t know who to call the favourite week to week?
Will the grand final seem as epic when the participants can’t even be guessed at with eight rounds remaining the season?
It’s a breath of fresh air to see a season this wide-open, but this may not be a season that lives long in the memory.
Jacques
Guest
Get over it ironmonger, that wasn't a blockbuster.. The WA game was a dud, Sydney came to play, way too good in the clinches and the ruck. Inuries and suspension notwithstanding, the Eagles had "the house of pain" home ground/umpiring advantage and still lost by over 50 points. Nic Nat and Cox were spectators as was Priddis. Vic supporters appreciate interstate teams that have a go and play to their potential.
John Seabrook
Guest
Cannot agree. The 2009 Cats vs Saints match was sort of entertaining for non partisan supporters, but It was an arm wrestle with very few highlights for footy purists. This season is far more interesting. The AFL wants and needs a showcase of the skills that make the game unique. We don't need another 9 goals to 7 goals battle of the back lines affair! Footy fans want those goal umpires to be busy. Rugby Union is cursed by games won by penalty goals, the AFL certainly doesn't want to travel down that desolate road. On the other hand Eric, I too don't want to see a second placed team thrash a 5th placed team on GF day either. But, who knows, maybe that 5th (or 6th) team can go all the way this year. Surely that's not a bad thing.
Richo
Guest
Eagles v Swans not a blockbuster on the weekend?
Winston
Guest
I don't think anyone remembers any season other than the ones where their team wins everything. Any Geelong fan will remember 2011. Any West Coast fan will remember 2006. Other than that, every season is exactly the same.
swannies05
Roar Pro
Bit of an odd article. Each round there are 'blockbusters' at the moment. The amount of '8 point' games coming up is amazing, I think this season will last in many people's memories for a long time primarily because so many supporters will be able to say "What if..." or "If only (insert name here) had kicked that goal..." about their clubs. The evenness of the competition is exactly why this season WILL live long in the memory.
Jaceman
Guest
Actually this http://afr.com/p/business/marketing_media/keep_quiet_rugby_league_tv_bidders_BYn7XZdBXp8lfW3zw9RyQI
Eric George
Roar Rookie
Was that a typo? I don't really understand you're argument. I was describing the advantages of a predictable season, which this season definitely is. I won't debate whether or not the article is justified, I just intended it as some food for thought amid the love-in we are having for the topsy turvy season this year (which I am also enjoying).
Eric George
Roar Rookie
I'm a Swans fan, so you can forget that line of argument Ironmonger.
Australian Rules
Guest
cheers
Ironmonger
Guest
Or is it the non Vic teams getting on top again that has deflated you and Victorian press
Hamish
Guest
John McDuling article in Marketing and media AFR yesterday but I cant get the full linked article..The not more than 80m comes from a source who said they only bid marginally more than last year $70m.
Australian Rules
Guest
You have a link to that Hamish?
Hamish
Guest
Seven and Foxtel got a bargain. BTW in the AFR it was alleged that Nine bid $60m and Foxtel not more than $80m pa for the NRL rights which is $700m for 5 years but the bidding has just begun of course...
Australian Rules
Guest
I don't agree with the article...but I get it. Would you rather a Grand Slam where it was anyone's tournament?...or would you rather Federer and Nadal powering through on opposite sides of the draw to an inevitable showdown in the Final? The ansmwer is a mix of both from year to year.
mds1970
Roar Guru
There have been some one-sided games this year. But the battle for the top few spots is very close; there's several teams still in contention for the minor premiership, and the battle for home finals over the remaining weeks will be intense. And of course the finals haven't happened yet. How this season is remembered may well come down to what happens during the finals - it usually does. It's only then that we'll know how this season lives in the memory.
JakeZbrah
Guest
"Is it possible to have a blockbuster match, or an upset when you genuinely don’t know who to call the favourite week to week? " Yes. "Will the grand final seem as epic when the participants can’t even be guessed at with eight rounds remaining the season?" Yes. What a chud of an article. If we are running out of things to talk about maybe we should go back to discussing why State of Origin is such a good/bad idea.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Some people like tough tight games of footy. Other people like games where skills are on display. The OP clearly likes games where teams 3-18 are props for the annointed two. And boilovers - how about Brisbane vs West Coast ? Melbourne vs Essendon ?
Redb
Roar Guru
Odd article and premature. We are heading towards the pointy end and a host of top games before the finals hit. It will be an unbeleivable finals series IMO.
John D
Guest
A bit of an unjust article, Eric. I think you would only have to look at the engagement of the fans of teams 1 to 10 as a counterpoint. Personally, I love the predictability of it all, but each to his own.
Sean
Guest
Personally I barely remember 2009