State of Origin is over. While I have been celebrating Queensland’s win, now I’ve got finals on my mind. So without further ado, here it is: my list of premiership contenders. The list is ranked in order of premiership-contenderness.
1. Manly
They’re defending premiers for one simple reason: at full strength, they are the competition’s best team. (Even after the Newcastle Knights banana-skin over the weekend)
In 2012 they’ve had less luck with injury than last year, but (and admitting this is harder for me than walking on hot coals), this loathsome conglomerate will be very hard to beat again if they get to the finals at full strength.
I hate seeing them win, but even I have to admit that their physical yet skilful style of rugby league is fantastic to watch.
2. Melbourne
Their reliance on the so-called Big Three is a cliché on which all ambitious young scribes like to fall back on, so who am I to buck the trend? They’re slumping like Shaun Marsh in a Test Series at the moment, but the return of Slater will do much for the side’s balance.
Not only will his own speed and brilliance be an obvious help, but his return will also allow the competition’s must underrated player, Gareth Widdop, to return to the five-eighth role he has so excelled in.
The Storm needs Widdop at five-eighth as much as they need anyone else in their side – his clever skills in this playmaking role add much-needed variety to their attack.
3. Canterbury
Dessie Hasler is on quite a roll isn’t he? Not content with building Manly into the strongest side in the NRL, Hasler has now turned a very average Canterbury side – with the most ordinary halfback in the game – into competition front-runners.
Dessie is such a pro that he has built a game plan which makes his side’s greatest weakness, Kevin Kingston, completely irrelevant.
A forward pack of hulking playmakers (Kasiano, Graham, Eastwood and Pritchard are all overweight halfbacks) and a fullback of dynamite combine to make the Bulldogs the most exciting attacking unit in the game.
To highlight what a job Dessie is doing, he has even managed to transform grinning simpleton Krisnan Inu into a reliable, dynamic first-grader and, most miraculously of all, managed to convince the Roosters to give him their best and most consistent outside back (Sam Perrett).
Dessie, though you still stink of Manly too much for me to properly embrace you, you are clearly a fantastic coach. Surely you need a halfback at some stage though?
4. Brisbane
Much has been made of their fitness, their strength and their aggressive, competitive nature so, to offer some respite, I won’t go into it further here. We know these guys are fit and we know they have a powerful, hungry forward pack.
The Broncos are entrenched in the all-important top four and with home finals at Fortress Suncorp on the horizon, are well placed for a grand final run. However, despite their strength, there are question marks over the creativity in their spine and, after being hit hard by injury, the potency of their backline.
They’re giving a good account of themselves, but I’m not certain they have the points in them to win the premiership.
5. Warriors
They’re not currently in the eight and they may fail to even make it back, so maybe it says plenty about this year’s competition that I still rank them my fifth most likely premiership winner.
They’ve been inconsistent all year (and have shown nothing to suggest that won’t continue), but they have the size, skill and, at their best, aggression to beat any team on any day. I don’t think that can be said about any of the teams below, or even some of the teams above.
6. Cowboys
They’ve got some of the game’s best forwards, best playmakers and best outside backs. They’re well-coached by Neil Henry and they boast a considerable home ground advantage. All things considered, the Cowboys should be a huge chance of taking the crown. Despite all of this though, I don’t think they will.
They’re inconsistent and too often decide they can’t be bothered tackling. I think they could do with getting a bit angrier before I give them a serious hope of winning anything important, but any team with Matt Scott and NSW’s big Kiwi prop Tamou have the potential.
7. Wests
No team with Tim Moltzen at fullback has too much cause for optimism, but the Tigers do still have Benji Marshall and Chris Lawrence. Much like the Warriors they may not even make the finals, but in Marshall and Robbie Farah they have the creativity and class the likes of the Broncos and Bulldogs can only dream of.
In tight finals football, this could take them a long way. If they can get Aaron Woods, Keith Galloway, Adam Blair, Gareth Ellis and Chris Heighington all on the field at once, they will have the forward pack to give that class the platform to shine. It’s a huge if, but they’re not without a hope.
8. Souths
Unlikely, but Greg Inglis, Dave Taylor and Sam Burgess give them some cause for optimism. Young halfback Adam Reynolds looks classy, but I still find it hard to see his combination with John Sutton outclassing many of the halves combinations above them.
Still, long-suffering Souths fans should just be ecstatic they’re getting a mention at all! Unlike every other season I’ve watched footy, Souths are at least some small hope. This year they get a mention, but that’s likely as close they’ll come. Despite the improvement, it’s still no premiership for you! Next!
9. Sharks
The have a handy but, Carney-aside, unspectacular backline that is unlikely to capitalise on the good work of their impressive forward pack. As such, I think the Shire has more chance of seeing Paul Mellor holding up his relationship with ET as an example of good friendship than there is of Paul Gallen holding up the Telstra Premiership in 2012. Wade Graham’s playing well though, I’ll give them that much.
10. Newcastle
Every year someone comes from nowhere – could it be the Knights in 2012? Probably not, but they’re the only hope for a late run. The win over Manly will give them some hope.
Best of the rest (I have included them only to make fun of, let’s be honest):
11. St George Illawarra
There’s more chance of finding points in a circle than in this backline. They haven’t got a hope in hell.
12. Canberra
They’ve won a couple recently, but as the old saying goes, “form is temporary, but David Furner is the permanent coach.”
13. Gold Coast
They have actually made a good revival since the gloom of March and April. It’s been heartening to see, but still won’t be enough. There’s too many good players injured and too many Jamal Idrises who are fit.
14. Sydney
Mitchell Pearce has legitimate claims to being their best player, which just about says it all. Despite the gloom, Roosters fans should try their best to enjoy it though. Next year Sonny Bill will be bringing Anthony Mundine to their training sessions. Good luck with all that!
15. Penrith
They have two good players – both of whom they seem hell bent on getting rid of. I defer to Gus the super coach on this one, because I have to admit that I do not get it.
16. Parramatta
Their coach is Stephen Kearney and their playing roster is atrocious.
dishes
Guest
I agree with some that the Broncos are overrated this year. If they didn’t have the consistency of playing at the same time every week like clockwork they wouldn’t be so high up on the ladder. I still think at full strength Melbourne are the team to beat. I think they’ll be there in the GF, hopefully against the Sharks. If not, I’d have to say the Dogs. For mine the dark horse is Souths. You cant really write off any team with Greg Inglis, that’s how dominant he is.
dishes
Guest
dishes
Guest
Gordon should be raring to go when he is back from injury. There is some talent in the backs but they get shuffled around and maybe haven't found the right formula. Matthew Wright has been solid at the back. He could very well stay there, or maybe move onto the wing when Nathan Gardner comes back.
eagleJack
Guest
Barry just saw that Hodkinson is out for the season with a shoulder injury! Poor kid - just back from a dodgy knee and now a busted shoulder
Ghost Crayfish
Guest
From teams 4 -9 on my list it's pretty tight. When trying to rank them I was considering factors I think are important for going through the finals (and winnng Grand Finals) - things like control from the halves, big match experience, ability to score points, home ground finals advantage etc. The Sharks have been better than the Tigers so far this season, but I give the Tigers more hope of actually winning the premiership (basically due to Marshall, Farah and Lawrence giving them a bit of X factor in a big game).
JVGO
Guest
Sharks were missing Gallen, Carney, Fifita, Topou, Gardner among others when they beat the Broncos. And among the mega stars the broncos were missing were Matt gillet, Ben Hannant and Corey Parker. Really? The real issue is who have the Broncos beaten in the top 8. Souths (twice) oh and they beat NZ at home in a very tight game the other night. So that is big, but NZ aren't even in the 8 are they? Honestly I'm quite happy if the Sharks were put at no 8 in that list, but without the backhander. But having them below Wests is a joke. Over the course of the season I have gone from being very skeptical of our rise to at least admitting we have as good a chance as most sides in the 8, because most of them have proved themselves to be no better than we are.. My main point is that really the Broncos are overrated. They simply haven't beaten anybody worth beating. manly haven't really made a big statement either but they have the runs on the board from last year so they deserve the respect.
Queensland's Game Is Rugby League
Guest
"Cronulla on the other hand have beaten a full strength Melbourne without Gallen, Manly, NZ, Brisbane and the Cowboys." They defeated a depleted Broncos side that was missing the bulk of its line up. There were 6 or 7 players involved in origin, plus a couple who have been injured. I think the Broncos lost Reid during the game. The victories over Manly, Cowboys and Storm were impressive. I'd like to see how they go over the last few weeks. The round 26 game between the Sharks and the Cowboys could determine the top four. The Cowboys vs Tigers match next Monday is going to be huge. If the Cowboys win then they're a decent chance of making their way into the top four. The Cowboys have defeated the Broncos twice, keeping them scoreless in the second game. Not many teams have held done that to the Broncos since 1988. Good win against the Storm in a pretty tough game. The two losses to the Titans could come back to hurt the Cowboys.
mushi
Roar Guru
Not really of those three only the Dragons v roosters had the minor premiers and/or best for and against. Just look at the math. If every team that you play are $3.00 under dogs to you (which means you’re a pretty darn good side right to have even your closest rival at $3.00 against you) you only win 38% of the time! Hell even if it is $5 (which is more than a 12 point start) against every team you are just clearing the 60% of the time that the best team wins.
Alex
Guest
Broncos will have a late season charge to finish on top i believe while the titans will just sneak into the 8. The making of the top 8 i think will go right down to the last round.
Ghost Crayfish
Guest
Anytime Des gets riled up it's pretty funny.
Ghost Crayfish
Guest
I actually reckon he was overrated at Melbourne - in my opinion he's a good player, but no rampaging superstar. The expectations on him outweighed the talent to me. He's been decent enough and as the Tigers improve so will he, but Sonny Bill or even Frank Pritchard, he is not.
Roarsome
Guest
Wouldn't it be funny if the Dogs were made to travel to Brookvale for a finals match given Dessie's spat last year about traveling from Manly to ANZ. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
JVGO
Guest
Sharks always overachieve for what they are on paper. As underdogs they have knocked Brisbane out of the finals numerous times for instance. But I'll concede that I'm more or less talking myself up in regard to Manly because on paper and man for man the Sharks simply have no chance against them and they are of course our bogey team. Until Origin I really had no expectations in the finals but their efforts understrength and without Gallen over the last month and a half have really surprised me. Heavily understength even the last 2 weeks have impressed me, but for dud calls they should have clearly won both games. Meanwhile Manly and the Storm have both been spanked. At full strength the Sharks have the best pack in the comp although our outside backs are worse than ordinary, but most of the contenders are flawed, Dogs halves are weak, Broncos lack flair, Storm are a 3 man team, NZ are erratic, Cowboys can't win in Sydney, Souths have no finals experience. Manly are the only complete team. Finishing top four however will be crucial for the Sharks. Cowboys or Melbourne away would be very difficult to win for us. In Sydney however we would have a good chance. Of course if we don;t win this week the wheels will have really fallen off. And seriously for Wests to beat the Sharks they would need two video refs, two refs and two touchies all on their side and to actually invent some rules that don't exist.....but that won't ever happen....oh wait....I think I can remember.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I'd love to see an all Sydney GF. Any combo of the Dogs, Tigers, Souths, Manly and Sharks would have appeal. Of the out of towners I'd like to see the Cowboys make a deep run in the semis. They're always one of my favourite teams to watch but something regularly seems to go wrong at the business end of the season for them.
The Barry
Roar Guru
True...but over the past three years, the side that was best performed during the season has beaten the side that's made a late run to the GF. Melb over the Eels, Dragons over Roosters and Manly over the Warriors.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Hodkinson re-injured his knee during his comeback. He's since comeback again from that but from what I hear his original knee injury was pretty bad and has left him slow (not much pace to begin with) and tentative. Despite the wonders of modern science occasionally you get these knee injuries that players struggle to come back from.
Will Sinclair
Guest
Dunno mate. He's been nowhere near as bad as some make out - I think he's played virtually every minute of every game (up to this week) and has been very solid. And I think he would benefit from some stability around him as well. It's hard enough to build combinations at a new club, without also having to deal with new halves and hookers every week. But, honestly, I would have expected more.
Ghost Crayfish
Guest
Sharks have done very well this year and the Tigers have been disappointing, yet just three points separate them on the table. I've got my reasons for thinking the Tigers have more of a premiership chance and they're stated above. You disagree, that's fine. Time will tell. Also agree with Mals comment - questioning Manly's big game ticker is an odd one...They've won the last two GFs they've played and rarely lose the big regular season games. The Sharks, comparatively, have such a bad finals record that even Brian Smith can mock them.
Dayer
Guest
I think the Storm will be in the GF, against who?, I do not know but it could be the Cowboys. The Storm are having a mid - life crisis at the moment but watch them turn that around to like when they were in the first half of the season. The losses they are currently having looks like a blessing in disguise as they have enough games left to get their "Mojo" back. My Dark Horse is .... COWBOYS.
Mals
Roar Rookie
"Manly in big games have questionable ticker" WTF??!? Manly had a last minute come from behind win to beat Brisbane at Suncorp. Beat Canterbury at ANZ stadium & the Warriors in NZ after a massive road trip via the UK. Yes they lost against the Storm at home but that is the only big game they have not won this year. Manly's trouble this year is losing to the likes of Penrith & Parra away from home and dropping a home game against the Titans!