Crunch time arrives: Sydney vs Hawthorn

Love this, cmon guys keep going keep telling us that we can't aren't a good side, that we can't beat Collingwood or Hawthorn and the MCG is a place where it is impossible for us to win! The more you tell us we can't do something, your just giving us so much more ammunition to throw back at you, we may not win the premiership but we will give it a red hot crack and come very close at the least. Also there is no such thing as an impossibility in sport, we haven't beaten Collingwood in a while, we don't have a good record at the MCG, but let me tell you that does not mean we CAN'T, of course we can, anything can happen we just haven't done it recently, it can all change in the space of 3 hours. Before we won the 2005 preliminary final, we hadn't won a final in melbourne since 1945, and went on to win that game and the Grand Final the next week, this shows that hoodoo's are meant to be broken and eventually will! What happens if we beat Collingwood in the Granny at the MCG (which I would love to see, and 2 bird with one stone!), what will you guys say then? Us supporters have a belief that we have the team and coaches that are capable of delivering us out 5th Premiership, and no matter what you say you can't take that away from us, and we don't really care. Just hope we can take the premiership just to stick it up all you doubters.

50 years is quite a significant period of time, is it not? I know you know what I was getting at, but just in case I'll spell it out for you - Pies fans love to think they support the greatest footy club in the land, but the harsh yet beautiful reality is that for all their alleged grandeur they really have achieved stuff all in what many would agree is a significant period of time.

"So I believe that the AFL is Collingwood & their is no other." The statement makes no sense, the spelling is atrocious and the logic, based on you being a "long time member of the Black & White army", is difficult to understand. Can you elaborate on this point? "How someone can suggest that Sydney should be an out right favourite for the flag is beyond me". Agree. I think only one person was suggesting this.

If your response is "they are on top of the ladder" then you are still missing my point. Lets not forget that Adelaide lost to Brisbane last week.....but hang on, they were "second on the ladder"??? Note the following also about the Swans: 1. They beat Geelong last year in Geelong, no? 2. Recently struggled against St Kilda at home (watch the last quarter again on replay....they were very lucky to win) 3. Beaten by Crows, Collingwood and Saints this year 4. Just beat Geelong at SCG 5. Win against WCE, whilst admirable, was against an injury plagued team 6. Beaten at MCG by Richmond (see replay and note performance of the players I have listed) If they beat Hawthorn this week then I will agree that they are a very good chance of winning the flag, but will still stick to my opinion that if the aforementioned players were traded/improved their game, Swans would be in a much stronger position and possibly close to favourites to win the GF.

The best outcome for the Swans may well be to lose to Hawthorn then to beat Geelong - to my mind likely results. Assuming Hawthorn beat West Coast in the final week that would mean Sydney finishing second and hosting a qualifying final against Adelaide. Win that and they have a home prelim final, probably against Collingwood which would be tough but winnable. A Hawthorn Sydney GF would bring the best two teams in the comp head to head. Incidentally percentage is consistently a reasonable measure of team quality over the whole season and that has Hawthorn 1, Sydney 2.

.Well Cameron the bookies have got the Eagles favourites so the money suggests it is a probable result.West Coast have a tall forward line and the hawks dont have the best key defenders so that game is not a certainty.

Btw yes I am a swans supporter!! GO SWANS :)

I am going to voice my opinion over the swans and how they will go now. I watched there game against the dogs on Sunday and they were up against a fired up dogs side who were trying to prove a point. In the end the dogs dropped off a little but the swans also showed they have what it takes to step up a gear when they need to. Yes we lost to the pies and crows by 1 point and 8 points respectively but people seem to be forgetting that we managed to belt hawthorn earlier in the season. Sydney deserve to be where they are they have the quality in the side and unlike a lot of the other big side they don't rely on a select few players. We don't need goodes to win and we proved that and we also have fairly good depth in the squad. No matter what happens this week the swans have earnt the right to be classified as genuine contenders for the title. ALSO no team this year can be classified as an outright favourite to win. The swans, hawks, pies, crows, eagles and the cats can all be classified as genuine contenders. They all proved they can win against eachother it's going to be who plays best on the day. Icwoukd say so much more but really CBF typing any longer!!!!

The Swans finished sixth last season, Cam. Seventh after 22 rounds, and then they made the second round of finals to officially finish in the top six. And on the Bombers game, you can equally argue that if a side is comfortably beating the Dockers in Perth, they can't be in too bad a shape. 'Deeper' analysis means looking at every relevant fact. Not just picking and choosing the ones that support your own opinion. So far, the Swans' record against the other teams in the top four is one comfortable win and two one-kick losses. Not great, but not terrible. If the Swans do lose on the weekend, they'll still be around. They'll probably still make the top four. It won't be 'goodnight Sydney'. You are making big claims with very weak evidence.

This Sydney team is starting to resemble the flag winning line up of earlier this century. Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised if Hawthorn won by about five goals. And...........having said that,.........I won't be shocked if Sydney win by 3 points with a kick after the siren! Seriously though, should be a great game.

Cameron, you are very selective in your analysis of games of importance during the season. Here are some grand wins by the Swans this year: Sydney vs Hawthorn, Sydney vs Geelong, Sydney vs Essendon. According to you, nothing can be read into these victories, but close loses, such as those to Adelaide and Collingwood spell doom and gloom to the team. I'll accept that you're writing these pieces to get your audience geed up and agitated (as well as repeated the contents of your posts from several months ago), but it might be better to provide some more realistic analysis. You also keep banging on about Geelong outplaying Sydney for three quarters. I think what you mean is they were outscored for three quarters, because they certainly weren't outplayed. Anyhow, whatever you think, they still won the game. The losses to Adelaide and Collingwood were close games that the Swans should have won but, of course, you don't get points for losing. However, you do get points for WINNING games, and respect for this should be given (16 times this year for the Swans). Hawthorn has also played the same weak teams as the Swans have this year, but you suggest that the Swans play bad teams every second week – so they are at fault for this? You can only play against the team that turns up. The Swans are the third best team? Why is that? Why don't you say that Richmond is better team than both Sydney and Hawthorn, giving them both a wallop (29 points and 62 points)? Why not? Because they haven't won enough games and played consistently throughout the year, and that's what Sydney have done this year/ Why don't you focus on more legitimate issues such as the Swans poor MCG record – they've only played their once this year though, or give some more thoughtful statistical analysis, rather than just the silly hunches that you seem to have. I think it might be time to lose your 'Expert' badge.

This is just nonsense. The result against Essendon means nothing because they lost to Melbourne the week before? What about the result the week after, when the Bombers beat the Dockers in Perth? 'Outplayed by Geelong for three quarters' is a stretch to say the least. Wasn't until well into the final quarter that the Cats looked like any chance. Equally silly to say that the Swans were 'completely outplayed' in the first half against the Hawks. But apparently that was an anamoly. Just like beating the Eagles in Perth was an anomaly. The Eagles, of course, had used up all their energy on a game played just eight days earlier. Handing Carlton their only loss in the past five rounds was yet another anomaly, presumably. The Swans' opponents had better hope there aren't so many anomalies in September. The only 'anomaly' that I see was the Collingwood loss, Sydney's only loss since round 9. Cameron, surely you're reaching a point when you can see that your logic to justify talking down the Swans is getting more and more strained?

The Swans could not beat the Magpies recently on their own dung hill and made errors with inerrant kicking in the last hectic quarter in the same game. There has to be a question mark over them The West Coast v Collingwood match at Patersons will likely see over 40,000 rock up. And if you thought the booing was loud and aggressive against Geelong wait until the Black and Whites run out. If the game finishes close the crowd will go right off - The AFL must have thought all their christmases must have come at at once.

A lot of good points raised throughout this thread of comments, and yes Cam, some good ones in the article too. For what it's worth I just can't see the swans beating Hawthorn at the G. And to be premiers I believe the will need to do this.

I was talking about tall defenders only, not the entire defensive unit. These days the traditional positions are fairly irelevant and defensive work is no longer exclusively the job of the back six but of the entire side. I think the Hawks are number one for inside 50's conceeded (or they were very recently) which would suggest that their midfielders are doing a good job of stopping their opponents getting the ball into the forward line, which is a key reason why they've conceeded fewer pints than most sides.. The Hawks are probably a better overall defensive unit (across the entire ground) than Collingwood but I think that Collingwood have better tall defenders.

"It’s hard to see those players doing significant damage against Collingwood as they have a good spread of good tall defenders who can cover them all to a degree however the Hawks defence isn’t as strong as that" Hawthorn have conceded 132 points less than Collingwood over the first 20 rounds this year, they are 2nd to Sydney in least total points conceded this year.

I love how people always say ' 2 premierships in 50 years' Its like civilzation started in the early 1960's. It must be in a slag off Collingwood supporters book. Rule no.50 Bag Collingwood supporters up until 1959. This is what we call the safe zone. Caution do not go beyond this period. You will be completely out of your depth. Don't bring up history unless your going to go beyond your safe argument zone.

"...I believe that the AFL is Collingwood & their is no other." Big statement for a club that has won 2 premierships in 50 years.

Well, their crowds have been down on last year...but the gaping hole in the stadium might have something to do with that!