Last season Manchester City announced themselves as one of the big players in the English Premier League, turning what had become the big four of Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal into a big five.
If you throw both Tottenham and Newcastle United into the mix, who have both been hovering thereabouts for the past few seasons, one could argue that the line that divides the top five from the rest is now as blurred as it’s been for 20 years.
The growth of the Premiership globally and the influx of foreign funds has helped spread the opportunities for success beyond the traditional powers.
The work of Everton and Fulham in recent years, inevitably on the fringes of the European spots, only makes it harder to determine where the line should be drawn.
Liverpool, for example, have finished the past three seasons outside the top four Champions League spots.
But, with the arrival of the hottest property in British coaching, Brendan Rodgers, the hope for Liverpool fans (like yours truly) is that the club will be back among the top few this time around, and pushing beyond that in the future.
With that in mind, and after the opening round of fixtures over the weekend, here’s my take on how the top five will finish.
Manchester City, first
Roberto Mancini’s tactical flexibility and balance was a big factor in the blue moon rising over Eastlands for the first time in 44 years.
Invariably having the edge over Sir Alex Ferguson, Mancini brought a real tactical sophistication and flexibility to the EPL, able to switch seamlessly between being on the front and shutting up shop, depending on what was required.
Blessed with numerous options up front, he was able to mix and match, as required, and with Yaya Toure, Joe Hart and Vincent Kompany supreme in halting the opposition, Mancini had some great balance.
With a settled squad and Carlos Tevez and Mario Balotelli likely to provide more this season than they did last, and Kun Aguero likely to back up an outstanding debut season, it suggests improvement.
Fundamental to their success is ensuring Toure stays fit and Joleon Lescott has a solid season alongside Kompany. If there’s any weakness, it’s the lack central defensive cover.
Manchester United, second
Last season was a disappointing one by Sir Alex Ferguson’s usual standards and United still managed to get within a minute or two of winning the league.
It says much about Ferguson’s resourcefulness that he was able to quietly go about his work, claw back City’s early lead, hit the lead and go so close with so many holes in his squad.
If something isn’t working, Ferguson will invariably find a solution, evidenced by him convincing Paul Scholes out of retirement.
This time around he has realised that he had to strengthen his front third quality and depth and to compete with Mancini, so he brought in Shinji Kagawa and Robin van Persie.
It might take a little for the front third to gel, and there is clearly plenty of quality there, but Ferguson will need to be at his resourceful best to get the best out of those behind them, with the age of his central defence and midfield his biggest issue.
Chelsea, third
While Roman Abramovich has splurged with the signings of attackers Eden Hazard, Oscar and Marko Marin, the big question is whether Roberto Di Matteo is equipped enough to steer the team around.
While he was able to get the best out of an ageing squad on the road to Champions League success, that was done largely on the back of a defensive, counter-attacking template, and they relied on much good fortune throughout their destiny run.
History though proves you need to be more adventurous to win the EPL, and this remains Di Matteo’s biggest test.
With no Didier Drogba, and a rejuvenated Fernando Torres leading the line, it appears that swift transition into the forward line, particular through Ramires and Hazard, will be the modus operandi.
Whether this is enough remains unlikely, and you sense Abramovich might need to add at least one other quality striker to support Torres.
Liverpool, fourth
With his squad not complete and players coming in late, it is likely to take Brendan Rodgers some time to sort out his formation and where signings like Fabio Boroni are best suited.
In the opener against West Brom he was used wide, but it might be more prudent to swap him with Luis Suarez, for Borini looked lost in the wide channels on debut.
This sort of tinkering and building of understanding will take Rodgers some time. Given the difficult opening month or so of the season, we might not expect to see the best of Liverpool for a few months.
With the squad still thin, Rodgers will need to continue to add quality and depth, and the likes of Nuri Sahin and Cristian Tello would be the types of players to fit into the way Rodgers wants to play.
How Rodgers manages the transition from old to new will be important, and he will need to make some tough calls.
While it remains a period of transition and renewal, there should be enough control of matches from the likes of Joe Allen and Lucas, and if Suarez and co. can find some efficiency in front of goal, Liverpool should climb the ladder swiftly.
Arsenal, fifth
While Arsene Wenger has brought in a high quality player in Santi Cazorla from La Liga, the question is whether he, Olivier Giroud and Lukas Podolski combined is enough to make up for the loss of van Persie.
Particular when you add the loss of Alex Song, off to Barcelona, it appears the squad has been weakened, even if there are a few extra numbers.
Gervinho showed signs over the weekend that his second season will be far more productive than his first, but the big question for the Gunners, minus van Persie, is just how productive they can be in front of goal?
Keen to hear your thoughts, and why you think someone not in my top five will be in there come next May.
Weekend results:
Arsenal v Sunderland: 0-0
Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur: 2-1
West Ham United v Aston Villa: 1-0
Queens Park Rangers v Swansea City: 0-5
Fulham v Norwich City: 5-0
West Bromwich Albion v Liverpool: 3-0
Reading v Stoke City: 1-1
Wigan v Chelsea: 0-2
Manchester City v Southampton: 3-2
Colin N
Guest
Erm, Manchester City weren't successful when they were brought and the same with Chelsea really - although they were top-four candidates, they never really contested the title. I think it's also worth noting that while everyone is talking about Southampton running City close, their recent success has been because of money. They were in real financial difficulties before they were taken over. And soon after they were brought, they signed Ricky Lambert for a million pounds.
isen.goga
Roar Rookie
First that looks like a reasonable guess at what the top 4 might look like with the exception of Liverpool. There are many having a laugh about Liverpool's chances of being in the top 4 come end of May 2013. As a Liverpool supporter, I think that a top 6 spot will show progress. To those who think that Liverpool is not 'a top club' any longer, well I guess that's your opinion but judging by the amount of fans they have around the world would suggest that you are wrong, it was only 4 years ago Liverpool challenging for the Title (and yes I realise that was under Rafa). Nevertheless, as stated by Liverpool owners FSG, progress must be shown, and it doesn't have to be in the form of a top 4 placement in Rodger' first year. Secondly, until the transfer window is closed, it is difficult in guessing what the table will end up looking like, so I admire your courage to show your guess. I think Manchester City, United and Chelsea will be up there for the title. Otherwise, Spurs will drop off, Arsenal is hard to guess, Newcastle might well take the last of the top 4 spots as they have largely retained their players whom impressed many last season. If the first round proves to be a precedent then I should think there will be a surprise or two come May.
whiskeymac
Guest
he was a great player
whiskeymac
Guest
swap newcastle for spurs and i am of the same opinion.
Zee
Roar Guru
BAHAHAHHAHA Liverpool Finishing in top 4? What highlights reel have you been watching. They'll be lucky to finish in the top 10 this season. And having them finish above Arsenal is an insult to the Londoners.. 1.United 2.City 3.Chelsea 4.Newcastle. 5.Spurs 6.Arsenal
The Big Fish
Guest
Fussball, Everything you say is probably correct except for one thing. "the perception that the EPL is predictable." It is not a perception. Do not get me wrong, I watch EPL and enjoy the game (I am not an expert and do not pretend to be one), but IMO, and I am allowed an opinion, I think it is sad that outside of the predictable few, success is not shared. Maybe when several billionaires decide to buy a few less successful teams that might change.
apaway
Roar Guru
Fussball I'm with you on this. Many have predicted the slump of Swansea after a decent first EPL season but to me they look very good. I'm not sure about third but it would not surprise me to see them up there among the Europa League places come May. The other club that I have tagged as something of a bolter this season is Sunderland. Martin O'Neil is one of the most astute managers in the game and I think he can doo good things with a full season at the Black Cats. And Tony, I think Liverpool will in fact come good despite the chorus of derision at your top 4 prediction. I think the club who are looking at a shaky year are Arsenal. There is something clearly amiss at the Emirates with the constant departure of players the calibre of Fabregas, Van Persie and now Song. As Coxinator, a Gunners tragic, commented to me on the Roar get-together last weekend, "Where does all the money go?"
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
@ The Big Fish Notwithstanding the perception of predictability with the EPL, it remains the biggest football league in the world, with the highest revenue & most popular football clubs on the planet. In an age where the market is the final arbiter of "success" & "failure", surely there's nothing "sad" about that? Perhaps, the global sporting market doesn't share - or, more importantly, doesn't care about - the perception that the EPL is predictable.
The Big Fish
Guest
Pete4, yes I know, I do keep an eye on the PL, but seriously there is not that many clubs regularly challenging. So essentially the only way to get up there is with money (lots of money). 1 or 2 along the way may drop out but ... I'll change my wording, "Sadly for this competition, you can PRETTY MUCH republish this article over the next decade again and again" Better?
cjones
Guest
Banger it would appear Newcastle are putting out weaker teams in Europe so this should not impact the Prem campaign too much.
Swampy
Guest
I think the way Swansea play is great and so positive and it would be quite the story if they finished in a champion league spot. Good luck to them but it's a big ask. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
Swampy Fußball is a funny game! One of my favourite players from the 80s, Michael Laudrup - Danish & Barcelona superstar - is in charge of Swansea & I'm expecting big things from his team.
F
Guest
It`s about time the usuaul EPL teams got a run for their money but Liverpool 4th who ARE you kidding GO MAN U
Banger
Guest
I believe that Chelsea are going to struggle this year. Without Drogba they lose a massive physical presence and a lot of their other players are another year older. P{redict DiMatteo to struggle this year, it is going to be very hard for him to keep the team competitive while regenerating. Will be very interesting to see how Hazard, Oscar and Marin adapt to the league, it will take some time, and I predict Hazard will struggle against more phyical sides. As for the season standings I believe both the Manchester clubs will top the standings again, with Arsenal and Newcastle filling out the top four. It will be a close run thing, but there is much more consistency(manager, style etc) at these two clubs then at the Liverpool, Chelsea, and Tottenham. And I expect that will be the difference. The other issue is just how will Newcastle cope with the addition of a Europa League campaign this season.
Ballymore
Guest
1) City 2) United 3) Chelsea 4) - 6) Spurs, Newcastle, Arsenal (any order) 7) - 9) Fulham, Everton, Liverpool (any order)
Swampy
Guest
Fussball - not sure if you are serious but if Swansea finish 3rd I'll book you a seat on Richard Branson's space plane! Would be amazing but ain't gonna happen. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
Disco
Roar Guru
Rodgers talks a good game but Liverpool aren't a top four side.
The Bush
Roar Guru
Liverpool should worry about relegation after last weekend! Ha ha ha But seriously, the Reds will be pushing it to make Europa:- City United Spurs Gunners Chelsea Liverpool (if they play well)
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
1. Man United 2. Man City 3. Swansea 4. Arsenal 5. Liverpool
Swampy
Guest
Lol Liverpool 4th - bahahahahahaha They'll be lucky to finish 10th. West Brom will finish higher than Liverpool. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.