Following the AFL home-and-away season, a new study says the final ladder could be improved to ‘truly’ reflect the ranking of the overall performance of the 18 teams.
A study by a La Trobe University sports economist uses complex econometric modelling and regression techniques to estimate an ‘optimal’ bonus points system – determined from data on all AFL matches from the 1997-2008 seasons – similar to those used in Super Rugby.
It is claimed that this system is better at revealing strong teams in the AFL than the current system, which does not award bonus points.
The research – by Dr Liam Lenten from La Trobe’s School of Economics, and co-author Dr Niven Winchester at the esteemed Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the US – builds on Dr Winchester’s previous analysis on the Super Rugby system.
The authors’ results indicate a preferred allocation of four league points for a win, three points for a draw, two points for winning by 27 or more and two points for losing by 26 or less.
However, they state that the partition could instead be altered to 24 points (i.e. four goals) to make it more interpretable to fans, and that a goal bonus (similar to a try bonus in Rugby) for scoring (for example) 20 goals, could also be included.
The 2012 ladder under a bonus point system in reported below. Dr Lenten points out that Collingwood would have finished 7th instead of 4th in 2012, giving them an elimination final against North Melbourne, and handing Geelong the double-chance and a qualifying final against Hawthorn this coming weekend.
Dr Lenten says the inclusion of bonuses may also maintain spectator interest in matches where an obvious winner emerges prior to match completion.
It could also prevent dominant teams taking their foot off the pedal after establishing a significant lead.
For these reasons, Dr Lenten claims that the AFL Commission should consider amending the current allocation of league points.
The authors of the study acknowledge that introducing bonuses to AFL standings may cause controversy as a team with less wins could (as in Super Rugby) conceivably qualify for the finals at the expense of a team with more wins, creating fan resistance to the idea.
However, they point out that many other sports already use popular ‘bonus point’ systems (if not by name), such as those in Super Rugby, as mentioned, as well as ice hockey and others
Also, according to Dr Winchester, parallels can be drawn to the Duckworth-Lewis revised-target rule used in cricket, “…which was met initially with much scepticism but is now widely accepted”.
Alternative 2012 AFL Ladder under Inclusion of Bonus Points
| Actual | With BP | Team |
Win |
Draw |
MarginBonuses |
% |
Comp Pnts |
|
1 |
1 |
Hawthorn |
17 |
0 |
17 |
154.6 |
102 |
|
2 |
2 |
Adelaide |
17 |
0 |
13 |
132.5 |
94 |
|
3 |
3 |
Sydney |
16 |
0 |
14 |
140.6 |
92 |
|
6 |
4 |
Geelong |
15 |
0 |
14 |
117.1 |
88 |
|
5 |
5 |
West Coast |
15 |
0 |
12 |
124.2 |
84 |
|
8 |
6 |
North Melbourne |
14 |
0 |
14 |
112.5 |
84 |
|
4 |
7 |
Collingwood |
16 |
0 |
9 |
116.5 |
82 |
|
7 |
8 |
Fremantle |
14 |
0 |
12 |
115.7 |
80 |
|
12 |
9 |
Richmond |
10 |
1 |
17 |
111.6 |
77 |
|
9 |
10 |
St.Kilda |
12 |
0 |
12 |
123.3 |
72 |
|
10 |
11 |
Carlton |
11 |
0 |
13 |
108.0 |
70 |
|
11 |
12 |
Essendon |
11 |
0 |
11 |
100.1 |
66 |
|
13 |
13 |
Brisbane |
10 |
0 |
8 |
91.0 |
56 |
|
14 |
14 |
Port Adelaide |
5 |
1 |
8 |
78.9 |
39 |
|
15 |
15 |
Western Bulldogs |
5 |
0 |
7 |
67.0 |
34 |
|
16 |
16 |
Melbourne |
4 |
0 |
6 |
67.5 |
28 |
|
17 |
17 |
Gold Coast |
3 |
0 |
6 |
60.8 |
24 |
|
18 |
18 |
GWS |
2 |
0 |
4 |
46.2 |
16 |
Kim Crawford
Guest
Remember that percetage only comes into play if teams have an equal number of premiership points.
Kim Crawford
Guest
I have already sent this idea to the AFL and they have ignored it. It is so obvious it is a wonder they cannot think of these things themselves. I had an alternative ladder running this year that awarded 2 points for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss. Teams were then awarded a bonus point for every 25 points they scored in a game. The aim of this was to combat coaches who instruct players to adopt a defensive game plan that is boring to watch and does nothing for the game. It rewards those teams that play attacking football. At the end of the season I made the adjustment to counter the uneven draw, as suggested by Phil. The result are not disimilar to the ladder the academics have come up with. I will try and post it at some stage.
Andrew A
Guest
This study is a total load of garbage. Hawthorn & Collingwood had much tougher draws than Adelaide and Sydney and are the two best sides of the home and away season. Hawthorn still managed to finish top without the free additional points & percentage the Crows & Swans received with extra games against the inexperienced expansion clubs. A better study would be to provide a solution to the unneven draw.
TC
Guest
Richard Why stop at the good Professor's suggestions. We could expand the bonus point system, so that you earn: 1. An extra point for saying "sir" to the umpires 2. An extra point for winning the possession count 3. An extra point if your spearhead can kick 10 or more goals in a game 4. An extra point for hitting Milne or Valentine.
btn
Roar Pro
The bonus point system has caused a great deal of frustration among rugby fans, because winning becomes less important. When it comes to ladders, the simpler the better. Getting the most wins on the board should be good enough to determine ladder spots.
phil
Guest
If you want a fair draw, how about 4 points if you win against a team that you meet once in the season and 2 points per win against a team that you meet twice. And I don't have a degree in anything.
Chris
Guest
Ok put it this way. If WCE came 4th and Coll 5th do you really think Haw would be playing WCE on Friday and Coll playing North on Sunday. And then if Coll beat North in week 2 they would have to face up to Hawthorn or WCE with nearly two days less of a break and possibly travel to Perth as well. Not on according to the AFL My point exactly. Also, why not let WCE play on Saturday. After all, your argument is who finishes on top should be advantaged. In this instance Geel and Freo did not finish above WCE but still they play a day earlier in week 1. PS: I garuantee you I'm not a WCE fan I just hate how the AFL favours certain Melb teams
SurlyPie
Guest
Ha! Love it. That was my first reaction too! Good ol' Ninthmond eh..... On a more serious note, this proposal is silly and only exacerbates the unfairness of the draw.
Steve
Guest
About 6-7 years ago, I went into a forum and suggested an alternate points system: If you win by less than 7 points, you get 3 points and your opponents get 1. I got laughed out of the forum. Sure, they were idiots, and had idiotic reasoning, but they were right - it provides for way too much collusion. Frankly, the idea this "Dr" proposes is too convoluted to be much help, doesn't take into account the real problem (unevenness of the draw), and could result in collusion between teams. I'm a big NHL fan, and the "bonus point" system is the most ridiculous part of the game, in my opinion, mainly because both teams get rewarded (and not penalized) for not winning. Wins are all that matter in October - it should be all that matter March-August.
Steve
Guest
There's two reasons why the percentage system still works well, even though it's archaic: 1) It encourages attacking play all season long. 2) It mitigates the effect of an odd result (like playing a game in a typhoon in Darwin, for example) Defensive teams don't actually benefit from this as much - you might be able to win quite a few games by keeping them low-scoring, but every once in a while Geelong or Hawthorn are going to come along and beat you by 150, and then your several close wins are going to amount to very little because you didn't pick score as much to offset the damage Buddy Franklin just did. I actually started calculating Sydney's chance of the minor prem after Hawthorn's win Friday - then stopped when I realized it was "must beat Geelong by 133 points PLUS 3 points for every 2 Geelong scores." Points scored earlier in the year against Sydney really did haunt them all the way to Week 23.
Richard
Roar Guru
Yeah. This guy is right. It's obvious that the teams which win games don't really win them. We need to come up with a convoluted system to find out who really won, which is Geelong obviously. Another piece of half baked research coming up with soft centred ideas. I hope the taxpayer doesn't pay his salary.
Redb
Roar Guru
Richmond 9th! . I thought it was written into the AFL constitution that it be so, every year. Bring it in.
Deep Thinker
Guest
This is silly. The percentage differentials already distinguish teams on the basis of the size of margins. It overcomplicates things and provides an unfair advantage to high scoring teams rather than strong defensive teams. The 20 goal rule is great for a team like North, bad for a team like Sydney. One thing I never understood is distinguishing between teams based on percentage. Surely, it is much simpler and fairer calculating total points scored minus total points against. The percentage rule gives an unfair advantage to defensive teams. If you win 100 to 50, this is much better for your percentage than winning 150 to 100.
langou
Roar Guru
My guess is that Chris is an Eagles fan. That level of nonsense could only come from a West Coaster
andyincanberra
Guest
Another point that bears consideration, would this compel teams to play players with injury concerns in the hope of a bigger win and more points? Look what happened to Lance Franklin when Hawthorn decided he should play against the GWS.
AndyMack
Guest
what a joke. u trying to say the afl manufactured all the results all year, just to get collingwood to get a home final in week 2?? 1 v 4 is the usual fri night game isnt it?? They even playing 1 v 4 in the NRL finals on the friday night. Your hatred is making you see things that are not there.
AndyMack
Guest
You cant apply a different system to the results that were acheived under another system. Surely if the proposed method was in place, then most games throughout the season would have been played slightly differently. Coaches might have keep the foot on the gas a bit longer to get bonus points.
Eddie
Guest
We all know everybody hates collingwood, even academia.... Well that's new. Lol
Paul
Guest
This idea is a joke. It would reward teams which play weak sides and win by a substantial margin, but punish sides which play a strong side and win by just a few points. Not a good idea. It, in essence, says that if (for example) Geelong plays Gold Coast twice in a season and wins by more than 100 points both times, that means Geelong is a better team than (for example) Hawthorn, when Hawthorne plays Sydney twice and wins both games by a total of 12 points. In what universe does that make sense?
Nathan of Perth
Roar Rookie
Once again the bitter fruits of West Coast's 2-pt loss to Brisbane are highlighted for me :P