Thurston and Bowen should have been rested

I understand your point of view and concerns Scott! However the coach has to make that decision on what is best for his team. Perhaps he felt that if he rested players like Thurston he would kill the momentum and the confidence of the team. Or perhaps he felt they need more game time to add polish to their set moves under pressure. Only a coach can make that call so it is hard to be critical unless you know all the facts. As you say to lose someone like Thurston in your team can be devastating, a hard call for the coach to make! In the back of my mind there was an incident involving Blocker Roach with Warren Ryan or Tim Sheens as coach where he gave him very little game time and they lost the semi or grand final. Then again it may have been something entirely different reason, so long ago.

I can see the merits in Scott's argument; for me personally I agree with the others that say that a win in Sydney was important in the context of the Cowboys' season. Yep, if Thurston (or Bowen, let's be honest) had a season-ending injury then we'd be sitting here muttering about Neil Henry and the CEO and the like. But, who's to say that had they not played, and the Cowboys get flogged - what kind of finals warm-up is that? When you've got the chance to break and hoodoo and keep momentum going into the finals (and of those four wins, two were in New South Wales), you need to take that chance with both hands.

On the “if he got an injury you would not have a leg to stand on”. If it was an informed decision it doesn’t stop being one due to an unfavourable outcome that you had considered. This was what I was saying earlier, before Scott’s innumeracy side tracked me. Maybe an easier way is to imagine you’re playing a card game Right now you have an 8% shot to win it. If you play your two trump cards there is a 8% chance, if some things you can’t predict go against you, that your odds drop to around a 2% shot at winning ($50). So the risk of that decision (in terms of winning the overall game) is only 0.48% (8% x 6%). It is so low because your chances of winning to begin with were low so you weren’t risking much. So, as long as you think playing those two trump cards increases your chances by around 0.5% or more then the only rational move is to play the cards. Now the eventual outcome doesn’t change the fact that the decision was still the correct one. But even saying that there are two ways you can legitimately say Henry’s decision was still wrong. The first is you think the likelihood of winning is much higher, or that momentum/form don’t really give you much benefit at all. As for me, I’m a roosters fan. I agree with you that Souths form has slipped and I think that the best 4 sides at a neutral venue are Melbourne, NQ, Manly and the dogs. In that order. Where the cowboys are screwed is that for the past five years I think the average home field advantage for different city teams is 5 points. That’s a very big ask for them to win three games back to back spotting that to anyone. So I’m torn I think Manly or Melbourne depending on if they play in Sydney (GF) or Melbourne (Prelim). But I think you can throw a blanket over them and the dogs.

I dont disagree with you that momentum is important but should Thurston have picked up injury you would not have a leg to stand on. I think being scary is more important. My team Manly has proved that it can step it up and down gears. In regards to the top 4 it has worked out pretty well. I believe that the 1 vs 4 is a coin toss. IMO I think Bellamy can take Inglis out of the game. Cronk is the perfect half back when it comes to game plan delivery. I dont believe Souths form has been any good. Last week proved nothing. 2 of Souths tries were a big guy picking up the ball from dummy half and running over the try line such creativity. I dont think these 2 tries would have happened if the were playing another top 4 side. Who do you support Mushi one the QLD teams ? I think NQLD are a hope. They are my dark horse team i just hope Manly win on friday night to avoid playing them week 2.

Planko it depends on if you see any value in momentum/form. If Henry thinks winning increases his chances by even 2 or 3% then he had to give it a crack. As Scott keeps pointing out you need a lot of things to go your way to win from the bottom half of the draw so you can either take a pretty small risk to increase your chances or stand pat and say I’m good at relying on the Bradbury. But with Melbourne I do think because they risked more (given they have a better shot at the premiership) for the same incremental gain so they probably need to think about it more. Plus you are technically slightly better off finishing second as you “should” then get to play 4th in the prelim whilst 1st will play 3rd.

No most important thing is to maximise your chances.

Scott I have a theory about the salary cap. You are right if Thurston does not play in any of the semi's NQLD will struggle to be competitive at all forget winning. My theory is that if you don't have 80 plus percent of you salary cap on the field you dont win many games unless the other team is in the same boat. eg during SOO Manly & Souths had won so why bother. NQLD have 35 to 45 percent of their cap tied up in Bowen and Thruston they roll the dice every game. Scott I would go one step further why did Melbourne play all their stars against the tigers they really did not expect the dogs to not take care of business. Regardless they were guaranteed 2nd. Is the minor premiereship plus 100k that important not really ?

You guys know that for under $20 Scott will teach you how to punt! It's criminal

Going to have to agree with Eaglejack on this one over Scott. Since comparing sports is all the rage maybe we should just cast our eyes back to the Rugby World Cup. Dan Carter's cup ended after he suffered a freak injury during a kicking drill. Not playing is no guarantee of avoiding injury. However banishing some demons with regards to playing in Sydney will go along way to taking out the comp.

Who cares whoes winning the gf from bottom or top 4 atleast we Queenland supporters have something to cheer about,our two teams a in the finals.Go the broncos and the cowboy.By the way scott agrees with you about resting Thurstan and Bowen.which they loose or win they will still finish 5th.Any team can win gf starting from bottom 4 or top 4.

Well said. The constant deference to aussie rules by Rugby League 'writers' on this site is appalling and adds nothing to the arguments. they are vastly different competitions and outconmes are decided by innumerable different factors.

How does the home and away theory work in AFL when 2 Vic teams who share MCG / Etihad play against each other ? Playing footy is all about Mabo, the constitution and the vibe....the vibe is that teams need to hit their straps this time of year, not be backing off and having a rest

No. History in the NRL suggest that teams from outside the 8 can win and have under this finals system. Using the AFL as an example is flawed because they traditionally only have a handful of good teams capable of taking it out while the NRL has more parity. Maybe a bit of research would have gone well with this article ;-)

So you're advocating tanking? Thankfully most teams have more respect for the game than you do, both in NRL and AFL. I'm not sure why I put myself through reading your articles,

Don't think any player would want a rest at this time of year (or any other time of year for that matter). Semi's are about momentum, continued form and staying match conditioned. At the end of the day, Neil Henry played his best squad and he is in the business of doing the best for his team to keep on winning

Statistics are merely a record of the past. They in themselves have ZERO bearing on the future. Ps. I'm glad your not coaching the Cowboys Scott. The game in Cronulla although worth nothing in the context of the season, it was worth mountains in the context of winning in Sydney (against a team directly under them on the ladder) and also in terms of momentum. You seem to be implying that momentum in RL is a myth? PPs. The Cows have won more games this year WITHOUT Thurston than ever before. Who says the Cowboys class of 2012 couldn't go all the way even without Thurston? Oh, that's right the Statistics. Pfft.

Scott, I am a massive Cows fan but I think you need a bex & a good lie down.

Ideally JT/Bowen should of been rested but at the same time if they loss all the momentum they build is gone and confidence would of taken a hit. The Cowboys had chances to clinch top 4 this season but blew it when they lost to Manly at home pretty much confined them to 5th which isn't that bad considering home final.

In any case, they've given the Raiders a leg up, which is a nice change from their usual form of inflicting crushing defeats on us regardless of when or where we play them.