As the Gold Coast Suns tuck into another round of off-season beverages, the club’s recruiting manager Scott Clayton has earned the right to rip the top off a few cold ones of his own.
After all, it is his groundwork that has laid the foundation for not only the expansion side’s expected tilt at finals football over the next five years, but beyond.
Indeed, the Coast has a list so overflowing with talent that when the trade period rolls around at the conclusion of this finals series, or any for the next little bit, they will hold all the aces.
If they want Kurt Tippett, they have the bait to get him.
If another club needs an injection of promise or youth in any position, Carrara should be their first port of call.
It means that Gold Coast can start planning for a decade from now, when Gary Ablett will be long retired, David Swallow will be wily and experienced and Harley Bennell will make the Cyril years feel like a bygone era.
This all goes back to Clayton’s work, and his reluctance to take on more experienced players when the Suns had the chance.
After copping the short-term pain, the triple-figure floggings and the criticism, the rewards from this policy are starting to emerge on the horizon.
The expansion caper has never been done like this, with a bunch of teenagers thrown together at a pop-up club in a region barely touched by the game – so it’s been incredibly hard to predict how all of this was going to unfold.
But now, we can confidently say that the Suns are on the right track following a rollercoaster two-year initiation into the AFL.
It’s been difficult trying to figure out what bits of their first two seasons were down to the inconsistency of young players, and what parts were a result of errors in planning, list management or coaching.
If year one was a pass mark, then the first half of year two was an utter disaster that prompted many scribes – this one included – to question if this was really the right way to go about promoting the game in a new market, or building a new team from scratch.
The answer soon came. From Round 12 onwards, Gold Coast ironed out most of the creases and staged a resurgence that peeled back the curtain on what we can expect from them on a consistent basis going forward.
In the face of an extraordinary injury crisis, they unearthed a list that will, in time, be one of the best in the competition.
The Suns could not be better placed for the future. The deadwood of the first two years is being cleared out, and what’s left is rolled gold talent.
Gold Coast has it all.
A selection of young, spritely forwards all with the potential to follow Tom Hawkins’ example and slowly progress into the elite ranks.
A midfield that, even compensating for the forthcoming loss of hard-working, silky-smooth Josh Caddy, is equal parts grit and glitter.
A ruck division containing one of the competition’s brightest prospects, and a selection of other beanpoles that are now well on their way to filling out and becoming bonafide AFL players.
A rearguard that has grasped a new modern defensive structure, and has coupled that with natural poise and pace on the rebound to support the other areas of the ground.
The vast majority of Gold Coast’s first premiership side is almost certainly on their books at this very moment.
But the ones that won’t make it? Indeed, if there is a problem, then it’s that they just have too much talent. Not all of it can fit into a side of 22, and other sides will profit.
For example, Steven May, Sam Day and Tom Lynch can’t all play in the same forward line, especially not if Kurt Tippett joins them.
This isn’t so much a problem, though, as a blessing.
It’s not ideal that Caddy wants to move back to Victoria, especially after the Suns stuck with him after an injury-plagued first season. But they’ll get a first round pick for him at minimum.
That’ll be used to grab another young player. Three or four years down the track, he’ll come good at a time when guys like Dion Prestia and Brandon Matera have made names for themselves after 100 hard-nosed games.
Josh Toy is another who will head home. He hasn’t lived up to the hype, but he’s still worth a fair bit on the open market – in return, Gold Coast will get another draftee brimming with promise, who will head to the back of the queue.
When one of the three tall forwards wants out, or any other player with trade value does, the same will happen again.
This is what they mean when they say that the AFL has created a monster with the expansion sides.
Not that they’re going to be so awesome now, or even in five years time – but they’re poised for a long stretch at the top. GWS can’t be far behind.
Think conveyor belt, not premiership window. The idea is to have it open all the time.
When will it start? Who knows. That’s Guy McKenna’s problem. But now that the rough part’s out of the way, it’ll be fun to watch.
Mark
Guest
I agree that Brown and Brennan's contributions to the side are far and few between, but Harbrow has shone at times.
Tim
Guest
What team did you support before you jumped ship?
Jack Mansfield
Guest
Perfect Tom C. As a Suns member who has attended every game at the Gabba and Metricon the last 2 yrs I could not agree more with Tom C. Howerever, I will add - Zac "Teflon" Smith has taken about 5 contested marks in 2 yrs in the AFL. This will be his last yr if he can not rectify this glaring weakness in his game. Jack Darling? The Suns could have taken him in the 2010 draft but Scott "Guru" Clayton rated #3 Day, #10 Gorringe and #11 Lynch higher - I think that Lynch is the real deal but the other 2 have done SFA. Many praise the potential of Sam "Gunner" Day but I am not convinced. To date, he has not displayed the speed or agility to do a "Hawkins" and become a superstar in the future. Gorringe has done nothing in 2 seasons - sure he has been injured but when he has played he has done next to nothing. Mattie Warnock was recruited to be the number 3 tall back but due to injuries to Bock and Thompson he had to play on the gorillas and did a great job.
brendan
Guest
Your dreaming Vince.
Martin
Guest
One problem is that should both the Suns and Giants move up the ladder in future years, it will then mean that clubs from traditional AFL states will move down to the bottom. What a dilemma, I mean we want the expension teams to be successful, but not too successful.
Tom Dimanis
Roar Pro
I expected GC to have progressed further than where they are, and it's not because of the youngsters - the senior players they recruited have been woeful. Apart from Ablett, the likes of Brown, Brennan and Harbrow have contributed nothing of value to that football club.
Evan
Guest
I’m fairly sceptical about GC’s recruiting policy, I think they recruited too many older players. Ablett has been fantastic but is 28 years old, he’ll be mid-30’s in their premiership window. The same goes for Nathan Bock (currently 29yo), Campbell Brown (29), Matthew Warnock (28), Jared Brennan (28yo) and to a lesser extent Michael Rischitelli (26yo). I think the brains trust at GWS recruited magnificently, essentially taking the best 20-23yo players they could get. Scully (21yo), Ward (22yo), Davis (22yo), Palmer (23yo) are all potential 10-year, 200 game players. They have copied what Geelong did and have essentially pillaged two very high-talent drafts, Geelong formed the backbone of their premiership team from the 1999 Draft (Corey, Chapman, Ling, Enright) and the 2001 Draft (Bartel, Kelly, Johnson, Ablett). And the Cats did it with a lot lower picks than the Giants. So I think that the Suns will have to go again in either this draft, which they say is a good one, or 2014, to top off their list. And remember it took the Cats 8 years to win a premiership after they rebuilt their club.
Horatio
Guest
I guess we will find out if the kids developed better at a stronger club being shielded or being thrown in at the deep end at the Suns and Giants...
Swampy
Guest
Not sure GC will make a tilt at the finals in the next year... Over-rating the talent somewhat. A trap so many fall into. You can't base everything on potential. Proven performance is far more reliable and at this stage there is no reason to think others won't follow the josh caddy example. So the potential of the current squad may never be realised. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download it now [http://itunes.apple.com/au/app/the-roar/id327174726?mt=8].
TomC
Guest
It’s good to be positive about the futures of the expansion clubs, particularly when the Suns had so much negative press about three months ago, but even though I want to be convinced by this article I’m finding it difficult. ‘From Round 12 onwards, Gold Coast ironed out most of the creases and staged a resurgence that peeled back the curtain on what we can expect from them on a consistent basis going forward.’ I don’t know about this. They had some solid performances at Metricon, including of course that famous win over an insipid Carlton, but they still were on the wrong end of some embarrassing floggings, like losing to the Eagles by 126 points, the Crows by 91 points and the lowly Demons by 42. ‘A selection of young, spritely forwards all with the potential to follow Tom Hawkins’ example and slowly progress into the elite ranks.’ I guess Vince is talking about May, Day and Lynch here, who get referenced later on. Lynch is certainly the pick of these three, but I think it’s way too early to project a Tom Hawkins-like career trajectory. After all, Hawkins was allowed to gradually work his way into one of the best sides of the modern era. Lynch will have a very different kind of development. It’s just as likely he could go the way of Jarrad Grant, Lachie Hansen, Justin Koschitzke or any of the other tall forwards battling to establish themselves after promising starts to their careers. ‘A midfield that, even compensating for the forthcoming loss of hard-working, silky-smooth Josh Caddy, is equal parts grit and glitter’ I think there’s a lot of promise in the Suns midfield. I reckon Bennell, Prestia, Swallow and Matera (who I think will ultimately play in the midfield) are good bets for the future. Shaw and McKenzie have looked good at times, and everything I hear about O’Meara suggests he’s a star of the future. But I can’t agree about ‘equal parts grit and glitter’. I see a lot more glitter than grit amongst their youngsters, Prestia aside. One thing to bear in mind about the current Suns midfield is that most of the players doing the heavy lifting at the moment aren’t the talented kids they picked up two years ago. Stanley, Iles, Rischitelli, Horsley and of course Ablett are all in their mid 20s or older. ‘A ruck division containing one of the competition’s brightest prospects, and a selection of other beanpoles that are now well on their way to filling out and becoming bonafide AFL players.’ I ’m not at all convinced by Zac Smith, myself. Looks to be more an athlete than a footballer, but then a lot of people seem to rate him highly so I might well be wrong. But who are these ‘other beanpoles’? Hickey? Nicholls? Gorringe? Are they really developing as the Suns would want? ‘A rearguard that has grasped a new modern defensive structure, and has coupled that with natural poise and pace on the rebound to support the other areas of the ground.’ I must admit I really have no idea what you’re referring to here. My impression of watching the Suns this year is that the backline is a serious weak point, notwithstanding the impressive performance of the recycled Matthew Warnock. Harbrow has had some good moments, but most of the Suns’ smaller defenders, like Tape, Weller, Wilkinson and of course Toy, haven’t really caught the eye. I’m not totally certain what Vince’s timeframe for success is, but I don’t think the ‘conveyor belt’ of talent is off to a particularly bright start. I certainly don’t think that ‘the rough part is out of the way’. They’re still likely to be whipping boys for weaker teams in 2013, particularly when they travel.
Pillock
Roar Rookie
There has been a lot of talk this year about how Gold Coast will be good in a few years time. The trouble is that by then the players will have lost 50 to 60 games with a dozen or so wins. It will be hard to instil a winners confidence in them after a myriad of losses. I certainly hope they blossom however a dose of realism means it is by no merans a certainity. Add to that the fact that the Gold Coast has been a grave yard for professional football teams for the last 20 years. Although it must be said that the AFL has funded and will continue to fund for the long term.
josh
Guest
It will take a little longer than that I think.
Brewski
Guest
Fair article, lot of if's but's and maybe's though. Finished off the year well, lets see how early 2013 membership sales go.
Christo the Daddyo
Guest
Suns v Giants Grand Final in 5 years perhaps?