Green Moon’s 2012 Melbourne Cup victory was one that slipped under the guard of many form students including myself. So where did it go wrong?
Not only was Green Moon an outsider as the ninth favourite with the TAB at 20/1 but runner-up Fiorente (30/1) and third place-getter Jakkalberry (80/1) were nowhere near most analyst minds.
Now if your form study led you into any of the top three in yesterday’s Cup then I tip my hat to you because you’ve done a better job hundreds of other tipsters, including me.
In fact, I’ve only found two people in the media who rated winner Green Moon a top-four chance. They are ratings wizard Dominic Beirne and TVN presenter David Gately and they both tipped him for second place.
I haven’t come across a single form expert who found a spot in the placings for Fiorente, and I only saw one person put Jakkalberry in their top three.
The Melbourne Cup is the single-most studied horse race in Australia so how could the analysts be so far off? How could the most form-exposed and talked-about race get past guard of the so-called experts?
I think there are three reasons that explain the surprise result in the 2012 Melbourne Cup: no early pace, track bias and the weather.
Probably the most important factor in horse racing analysis is “speed”. And by speed I mean how quickly the early and middle part of a race is run.
If the pace is quick – like it was in October 20’s Caulfield Cup – horses like Dunaden, Alcopop and Americain come from last to spring the tiring leaders and fight the race out.
But if the speed is slow – like it was in yesterday’s Melbourne Cup – horses in the front half of the field aren’t generally caught by horses in the back half of the field.
When doing the form for a horse race I almost always disregard speed because it is too unpredictable. I find speed prediction to be a nightmare.
Often when a race is meant to be devoid of speed a number of jockeys will change tack and race closer to the lead thereby creating unforeseen pressure.
And when there appears to be an abundance of early pace, often a few of the predicted leaders will settle further back, thereby turning what was meant to be a fast-run race into a leader-dominated affair.
And that’s exactly what happened in yesterday’s Melbourne Cup. Horses that created pressure in the Caulfield Cup like Voila Ici and My Quest For Peace settled midfield and that left jockey Tommy Berry and sole front-runner Glencadam Gold to do as they pleased in the 3200m handicap.
And they dawdled. The middle 800 metres (from the 1800 to the 1000m mark) of the Melbourne Cup was run in a seriously slow 54.44 seconds. That’s probably four seconds (or about 60 metres) slower than normal.
And that meant the Melbourne Cup developed into a sprint home. If mid-race sectional analysis was possible, you’d have ruled a line through Dunaden and Americain’s winning chances well before the field swung for home.
With 59 and 58kgs on their back respectively they weren’t in any position to be flying home in Black Caviar-like time (which was required) to win the two-mile race from the rear of the pack.
But the Flemington track didn’t help. And this is where reasons two (track bias) and three (the weather) come into play.
There was a clear track bias yesterday and it affected the entire meeting. And the reason for the track bias was the weather.
The track was biased because it favoured horses that raced near to the inside rail. There wasn’t one horse in the seven circle races (i.e. races that included a turn) that came down the centre of the Flemington track to fill a placing.
In the Melbourne Cup, the three placegetters all made their runs in the home straight less than six horse-widths from the inside fence.
The rail position on Melbourne Cup Day was ‘two metres’ meaning the track was two metres narrower than what it is when in its ‘true’ position.
Horses that raced near to the inside rail were racing on a fresh pad of grass. The rail was moved out because track manager Mick Goodie feared rain (which didn’t eventuate) would make the inside two metres of grass unsuitable for racing after Saturday’s Derby meeting.
The plan to move the rail backfired when the Flemington track was upgraded to a ‘good’ surface at lunchtime.
And that lack of rain played into Green Moon’s favour. He’s a horse that has always performed well on quick surfaces and Green Moon used a good track to his best advantage in the Melbourne Cup.
In the end the horses that fought out the Melbourne Cup had decent form. They were going to figure if luck went their way.
This was described as the strongest ever Melbourne Cup and with so little separating the best 15-18 horses on paper, there was always a chance for an upset result.
Green Moon is a deserving winner of an Australian major. He was purchased by Lloyd Williams in 2010 and made an immediate mark at the last Spring Carnival when finishing second in the Caulfield Cup.
This season he started top pick in the Cox Plate but copped a heavy knock that not only ruined his Moonee Valley chances but threatened to rule him out of the Melbourne Cup.
Green Moon had a distance query hanging over his head but any horse that starts favourite in the Cox Plate is good enough, and worthy of a Melbourne Cup title. And Green Moon is no different.
Behind Green Moon there were many great runs. I wrote in my preview that Mount Athos could explode with 54kgs on his back. And explode he did, running his last 600m of the Melbourne Cup in a mind-boggling 33.56 seconds. He came from 13th to run fifth and was the easily the best closer in the Cup.
In March’s Newmarket Handicap (1200m) at Flemington world-class sprinter Hay List came home in 34.18 seconds to win on a good track. That’s three lengths slower than Mount Athos in the 3200m Melbourne Cup.
My Melbourne Cup Power Rankings (the best eight Cup runs):
1. Mount Athos (fifth)
2. Jakkalberry (third)
3. Green Moon (first)
4. Fiorente (second)
5. Red Cadeaux (eighth)
6. Precedence (ninth)
7. Americain (11th)
8. Kelinni (fourth)
MM
Guest
I think you are reading into the track bias, speed bias etc a little too much. The factor to review was racing conditions of lead up events. I backed Green Moon for the simple reasons that he loves Flemington and the conditions of the race (handicap). He won the Turnbull (Flemington & set weights with penalties) despite being three wide the entire race. He again got caught wide in the Cox Plate but he was not suited by the tight nature of the track and of course, it was weight for age. Further analysis, well he won a Newcastle Cup and ran second in the Caulfield Cup last year. If you ignored the Cox Plate (or WFA form), he was always a good chance. I also backed Lights of Heaven and Kelinni. I actually think Jackalberry and Fiorente really came from nowhere. The run of Mount Athos was also quality after he copped some interference from Americain at the 400m. In saying that, he would not have beaten the winner and may have only run a place. Michael Sullivan also tipped Green Moon as his "roughie" on TVN
Sh00ter
Guest
If you boxed all the 5, 6 & 7yo entires and geldings up with 56.5kg and under you would have cleaned up the exotics. There is a tip for 2013.
Sh00ter
Guest
He lost...
Chuck
Guest
Agree with that Lamby. Would love them to have more Australian qualifying races (MV Cup, Geelong Cup, maybe even the top 3 from the Caulfield Cup get in?) to lessen the number of overseas horses with 200k prizemoney and others that have been running stiff (although Bart has been doing it for years - wonder how many times he has been hauled before the stewards to explain a dud run in a lead up race - methinks not too many times)
Andrew C (waikato)
Guest
Sheek, someone (a mate of mine) counted the entires and reckoned there were 13 of the sods. And there was only ONE MARE - Light Of Heaven. Amazing.
Andrew C (waikato)
Guest
Justin, when in Spiro's class @ school, I would've probably would've been studying 'form' and pedigrees courtesy of my trusty Turf Digest :) - shock horreur !! it's a life's passion of mine (and I never stop learning). I've bred and raced a couple of interesting horses too. :)
Andrew C (waikato)
Guest
Yes Justin, Dunaden definitely possesses a no-name pedigree (from memory, haven't even been enticed to go back and have another peek - it's a 'horreur' !! ). Ahhhhhhhh the Oaks - let me tell you a (quick) story re my personal experience of Lady's Day. I had been to Derby Day on the Saturday (my first time to Flemington :) ). Wasn't having a great day on the punt when suddenly it changed when Sculptor won the Hotham (Saab) in the hands of Lisa Cropp and my ledger came back into CR. Cup Day and EFFICIENT was the rage-in-my-mind and I plonked money on him @ the TAB (on way to catch the train) and more on course with the bookies. Cleared 4.5k :) ....... Oaks Day and I had another fixation (result of pedigree research + a bit more) on ZARITA - and so I plonked her with the bookies (about 2k - crazy moi) and imo she was a certainty beaten betting about 4 checks in the straight. Buggeur !! - but then she came out in the autumn and carried all before her.......... Won $500 @ Casino on Vingt-et-un that night which placated moi somewhat..................So now to VRC Oaks 2012 - I like SUMMERBLISS (my lucky no 8) - I see there's a write up on her in today's The Age - I agree with Michael Kent that she's a class stayer in the making -by Danehill Dancer , (himself a sprinter, but has left an Oaks winner in 2007 :eek: in Arapaho Miss) being o/o a Sadlers Wells mare - but that's not all - the dam Distinctly (Ire) is a FULL sister-in-blood to fantastic 12 furlong specialist IN THE WINGS (and of course her damsire is Shirley Heights)................ we all know that at this time of the year (Spring) it isn't the most appropriate time for a 2500m Fillies Classic, so if one has a decent modicum of 'class' in one's damline, it certainly helps :) ................... of course the two favourites have the Zabeel factor going for them ................ I also fancy as a roughie KATE (I know a little bit re this filly as it was bred and is owned by an 'old reprobate' friend of mine and any easing of the track will assist (plus St Reims wo n the NZ Derby with a bold front running display and her dam is by Danasinga and her trainer iWayne Hilliss a very good conditioner of stayers. That's all from moi :)
sheek
Roar Guru
Here's an interesting point that's gone apparently unnoticed. We know the 2012 Caulfield Cup was the oldest on record with an average age of 6.33. The 2012 Melbourne Cup field had an average age of 6.42, which must surely make it one of the oldest cup fields in history, if not the average oldest. There were only 2 x four year olds & 5 x five year olds in the race. At the other end there were 4 x eight year olds & an amazing 8 x seven year olds. There was even a rare nine year old. 4 x six year olds rounded out the field, including the winner Green Moon.
Justin Cinque
Expert
*dabbling
Justin Cinque
Expert
I'm happy to admit i'm no breeding buff. I'm coming around though. I don't mind dappling into a few pedigrees now and then.
Justin Cinque
Expert
More than happy to tip my hat to you andrew. But breeding is only one part of it. Look at last year's winner dunaden - one of the few stakes winning sons from failed sire nicobar who was only a miler himself. Who do you have on top in the oaks? Surely zydeco - a zabeel filly out of a thousand guineas winning mare?
Bondy.
Guest
Its a difficult race to asses in pricing,it never made sense you had two favourites G Gold and almost Green Moon at their respective final starts before the big one and well in commision at 9-2 then 10 days later their 20-1 "the market is wrong there" proven by G Gold and Green Moon,also the tempo of the race has been questioned it can also work in reverse where they can go through there first 5 (1000) in 58 which is moving. I was on Americain and it was virtually over at the 1800 with the tempo really squessed out of the race, and most horses collecting other runners heels with the muddling tempo. Its the first cup I havent made money on for about 6-7 years a complete wipeout and the bagmen continue to cry poor. The Cup is truly a great race it gives Melbourne credibility "for once" and shows this great nation off to far flung destinations throughout the planet. The track was not right yesterday if you werent up fornt and on the fence you couldnt win. Well done Justin.
NF
Guest
Interesting to see some of the roar experts getting out there on radio wouldn't be long til they start appearing on TV too.
Jack
Guest
Precisely Andrew. Green Moon is a very tough stayer and I couldn't see him having trouble with the distance either. And as the day went on the more confident I became. Especially with the rail out.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Indeed - Listen to Justin here: http://www.abc.net.au/pm
Andrew C (waikato)
Guest
Jesus Christ? :)
Andrew C (waikato)
Guest
What I'm curious to know is THIS - does Justin (or any of you guys) have a strong ability to read a 'pedigree' as well as you obviously are adept at reading 'form' , (incl prev times, performances, etc) ?.............. just wondered because I personally had Jakkalberry & Green Moon as my first two picks.............. and as Cup Day progressed, I reversed my choices to rank GM on top (thus it got, exponentially, more dough ew when I plonked my money down :) ............pity I didn't have Florente in my mix (of 5 boxed in quinella), but guess one can't win 'em all.................. that's twice I've cleaned up nicely on one of Lloyd's winners - as it was in 2007 on Efficient when I more than cleaned up !!
Lamby
Roar Rookie
"premier staying handicap in the world" is a bit like saying it is the premier 100m running races between middle aged fat blokes. People want to watch the best 100m runners in the world. We want the best horse to win, not the one that has been running dead for a few weeks to get the best handicap so it can win. Why can't it be the premier staying race in the world? Handicapping is for betting purposes only. I don't see the point in Group 1 races.
Chuck
Guest
I reckon it is a hell of a shame that the Cox Plate is run at Moonee Valley and not Flemington - is easily a more interesting race these days. Hopefully the trend of the Melbourne Cup being more of a 2000m daudle will change.
TC
Guest
I heard JC getting interviewed on ABC radio yesterday arvo, introduced as an expert columnist with The Roar. Well done JC! TC