Something quite extraordinary happened in the Adelaide and Perth game Sunday evening. No, nothing of the ilk of Melbourne Victory’s pulsating come-from-behind defeat of Sydney.
Nor anything like Heart’s 4-1 dissection of the back-to-back champs. And nothing like Central Coast’s win across the Tasman to confirm their status as the League’s best team.
In fact, what was most extraordinary about the Adelaide and Perth game was the one-all scoreline.
That’s right, the one-all draw. Just the A-League’s fourth for the entire season, which is already six rounds and 30 matches old.
I once remember an Australian sports commentator attempting to explain that draws in Australian football were less likely because the nature of the Australian psyche would always push for a result. Or misguided words to that affect.
An opinion about as intellectually sound and statistically reliable as the one about scoring too early in games.
So if the lack of draws this season can’t be put down a question of mindset, what can it?
Looking over the first seven seasons of the A-League one thing is most particularly obvious. That draws are fairly common with little deviation from season to season, and they’re just as prevalent here as they are in the major European competitions.
These are the rates of drawn matches over the first seven A-League seasons.
2005-06 – 84 matches played, 21 draws (24%)
2006-07 – 84 for 20 (22%)
2007-08 – 84 for 28 (32%)
2008-09 – 84 for 20 (22%)
2009-10 – 135 for 32 (22%)
2010-11 – 165 for 37 (28%)
2011-12 – 135 for 37 (27%)
So that’s 771 total A-League games going into this season with 205 ties at a rate of 26.5%
The Bundesliga last season? 306 matches for 79 draws at a rate of 26%.
The English Premier League hosted 380 matches and 93 draws last season at 24%, while Spain’s La Liga also hosted 380 matches for 94 draws at 25%.
What these numbers tell us is that indeed there’s nothing to suggest there’s anything in the Australian blood or in the blood of the many foreigners who play here, which would contribute to any drop off in the occurrence of draws.
Yet, we’ve still nothing to explain why there have been just four draws in 30 A-League matches this season at a measly rate of 13%, well shy of the 25% which seems about the norm both here and abroad.
Unfortunately I can’t offer an opinion on why the draws have dried up this season, other suggesting we don’t be surprised if they start coming in thick and fast over the coming weeks.
Needless to say, however, I’d welcome any theories that attempt to explain this early season phenomenon, so long as they don’t make mention of Australian character traits.
Trent
Guest
I don't think draws are a problem in attracting new fans, but a lack of goals is. Nil all draws are a particularly big turn off. The Victory's first two home games in season 3 were Perth (31,545) and CCM (27,351) - imagine crowds like that now for those fixtures! Score in both was 0-0. (Both games were in September during AFL finals so I'm dubious of any claim that moving the season back is the reason for the growth in crowd numbers). Last season, first two home games were Sydney (40,351) & Heart (39,309), and the scores...0-0. I often wonder how many potential fans gave up on the league after all those bore draws so early in the season. We all need to learn from season 3 that this year's apparent success doesn't mean that the A-League has 'arrived', and there's still a long way to. At least we're in a better position than 2 years ago. Probably helps that we don't have GCU dragging the league down.
Midfielder
Guest
Season three set a tone we need to be careful about in season eight... Many in the football world at the end of Hal 3, [especially SBS] assumed Hal was now accepted as a mainland sport and the negative articles that flowed in Hal's 5 & 6 sent the game into a tail spin... To date and i assume because of the next media deal the football media has been very kind to the A-League and mainstream media outlets especially News found out they got more hits with good football stories rather than negative ones ... thus soccer was called football more space was given and positive articles written... having the media continuing to support football in future years is still very important... As for the topic of the thread the draws... I put it down to a general acceptance by those that run the A-League that to get crowds and have people watch on TV you need to attack .... and every team I see is attacking even if that is hitting fast on the break...
MelbCro
Guest
It wasn't in the late 80s, it occurred for one season 1994/95. It was scrapped soon after
Cameron
Roar Guru
Quite interesting is that season 3 2007-2008 had the highest attendance rate to date (14,608) for a full season and yet 32% of 84 matches were draws. What is more interesting is that out of these 28 matches drawn, 60 goals were scored at an average of 2.14 goals per game. Currently in season 8, 30 matches played, 84 goals @ an average of 2.8 goals per game. It is no wonder that the A-League is attracting a larger audience both on and off the pitch. Attacking football has arrived, or my question is where has the defence gone?
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Off the fence, Ian!
Ian
Guest
i've been tipping too many draws so far this season which is reflecting in my results. this article has confirmed that for me. time to start picking clear winners.
Trent
Guest
Despite the small sample size it's still and amazingly small number of draws and definitely something to watch. Season 3 of the A-League had 6 draws in the first 2 weeks (4 games per round), with Central Coast winning the other two games. Compare that to 4 draws in the first 30 games this season! It should be noted that season 3 ended up with the highest percentage of draws so far, and it wouldn't surprise me if the overall total this year ends up under 20%.
Matt F
Roar Guru
Pretty much. You can't make an accurate judgement after only 6 rounds. There will be a few rounds with 3 or more draws in it and the end of season figure will probably look similar to the previous years.
james rosewarne
Roar Guru
That seems a really plausible explanation to me, Tom. I guess the only element which would need investigation would be to split each of those seasons up and to see if indeed draws are less common in the first half of seasons, owing to more goals and perhaps less organised defenses. Thanks for your contribution.
fadida
Guest
They'll be back. Too early in the season for statistical analysis
TomC
Roar Guru
A possible partial explanation is that defenders aren't as organised at the start of the season as they are at the end, and that leads to late goals and higher scores, which in turn reduces the likelihood of draws. At the moment A-league teams are averaging 1.4 goals a game, which is a bit higher than previous seasons, although only slightly higher than last season. Supporting that theory, the three teams that haven't yet had a draw are the Jets, the Victory and Sydney FC, who have the three highest aggregates of goals for and against.
Joe Gorman
Expert
the NSL used to have shoot outs to decide matches in the late 1980s. Thank god thats been scrapped!
Cappuccino
Roar Guru
Yes, as things get tighter heading toward the finals, we'll probably see more draws.
Roger
Guest
Our sample size is too small. I'd wager that over the season, the % will rise to that of previous seasons.