A client of mine holds a senior position in sports media for one of Australia’s leading media buying companies. He advises his board on all sports and how big their sponsorship and advertising spend should be.
If you guys can recall I wrote an article ten months before the AFL media deal was signed and was only $15 million off the target. It was this guy who told me the figure and why.
What he tells me is there are tipping points that trigger interest from sponsors and the media generally. The key indicators are ratings, crowds, media space, and net hits. More than most he is aware of the changing media delivery platforms.
He has told me that when certain points are reached and held over some time, heads will turn.
Football this year has had 23 maybe more games rating over 100,000.
Crowds are currently 12,300 season on average and that is after some of the worst weather over the last month or so.
The A-League is rating around 78,000 overall. The 78,000 does not include the New Zealand ratings, which for Wellington games is between 13k and 40K this season.
For other A-League matches I am not sure. But it is reasonable to say the A-League has a combined Australian and New Zealand rating in the low 80s.
The media has been far friendlier to Football this year than it ever has before. Many general sports commentators are even starting to defend attacks from traditional sources like violence at games, having a go at the game itself.
Some that come to mind are Richard Hinds from Fairfax, Offsiders on the ABC, John Stanley on radio 2UE, and Phil Rothfield from News Limited.
Essentially the A-League is now standing on its own feet without the need of the Socceroos for headlines.
My client says the A-League is within a few points [his term] of getting some very positive coverage.
Essentially the numbers say the audience is bigger for the positives and the acceptance is such that the positive stories will not deter fans from other codes.
A mistake I use to make is to assume that guys like him do not pay attention to the media coverage as a correlation to the ratings and crowds.
To explain, cricket receives masses of coverage yet its ratings have been falling for a while now. Football’s media compared to cricket over summer is a fraction at best 10 percent.
Yet aside from the Big Bash, other cricket numbers are not so high for cricket to maintain their current coverage.
My client tells me if the A-League could grow its crowds above 13,500, and Fox ratings over 90,000 next year or the year after, then in the latter part of the season and in the next season (say 12 months from now) there will be a huge shift in acceptance.
The positive coverage will continue if the figures keep going up, and so will the overall acceptance.
He also said the W-League and the Matildas are a very important cog in football’s future. His reason was if women have played football they will by and large understand and appreciate it and are a huge untapped market.
He said football is at a very real tipping point, not there yet, but not that far away.
I would be interested in the thoughts of fellow Roarers – do you think football is getting ready to explode?
Stavros
Guest
The AFL takes games to cities outside the five main capitals. When you go to places like Darwin, Cairns, Launceston, Hobart, Canberra, then you are going to drop a bit of attendance. Maybe the A League should try that. Give North Queensland or the Gold Coast a go. I'm sure it will be a winner.
Kasey
Guest
I think M50 should be embarrassed that the AFL average attendance dropped *again* last season. Fix your own back yard mate before you start throwing stones at us eh;)
Kasey
Guest
Wait. So we should be embarrassed that almost from scratch we started a new professional football league and have moved the game forward in leaps and bounds because in only 8 years we haven't developed the type of fanatical following that sees 70,000 turn up in terrible weather to a Carlton v Collingwood game? You are a clown and a sad, bitter troll Like a good golfer- Football compares itself to itself and in all respects we are winning. Only fools compare football to AFL or NRL(which by your argument is an embarrassment because even though they've been playing it since 1908, they don't get crowds anywhere near the AFL. Remind me again how long the ARU mega-capitalised ARC fared? Some football people famously gave the A-League "3 years tops" Football is in a wonderful position today thanks to the fans and the dedicated football lovers in and around the game. *We* have nothing to be embarrassed about, unless you're wearing an Australian national team shirt overseas looking to avoid drunken bogans kicking a Sherrin kick-to-kick style inside Hong Kong Airport(witnessed with my own eyes - sadly).
Titus
Guest
"Once the season proper starts game figures will be around 45,000 per match" Really? You're expecting average attendances to jump by 13 000 a game? Seems a little far fetched.
Martyn50
Roar Rookie
Kasey Must be embarrassing that on average the attendance is 12,277 over those 116games. An AFL practice match brings in on average 18,000. Once the season proper starts game figures will be around 45,000 per match
Kasey
Guest
How far has it come??? surely you jest? By ALL KPIs the HAL is in rude health as of today. After 3 seasons the Soccer knockers were penning obits in their Opinion columns..These days the same clowns are singing the praises of the game..we are surely not that far from a Road to Damascus type conversion by Bekky Wilson too! Only people who see what they want to see rather than the evidence in front of them are unable to muster any positivity when talking about not only football but the A-League. I think its time you re-examined your spectacles prescription. Try Taking a good look around, don't just cherry pick one or two poor stories and attempt to extrapolate across the league as a whole. The birthing pains are over and we are now in the consolidation and growth phase of the new league.
Kasey
Guest
Time for some facts to dispel the distinct odour of bitter ignorance in the air: After 116 of 135 games this season, aggregate attendance stands at 1,424,158. Last year after the full 135 H&A games, the final aggregate attendance was: 1,415,782. In season 1(84 games played) with the 6 finals games added, the 90 HAL games played recorded a total attendance of 1,046,456. That is called statistical PROOF that the A-League has and continues to grow. You have nothing R-ski. Crawl back under your bridge you can hang out with Martyn50.
MV Dave
Guest
You just can't admit it can you Rey.... Football in Oz has never been more popular...with record attendances this year, record TV audiences, record participation rates, record TV deal plus a FTA component next season, the Socceroos on track to qualify for the WC and yet...you still try to put Football down? You are indeed a very sad case for someone who purports to be a Football fan LOL However can I ask that you keep being negative because whilst you keep up this charade the game continues to boom...it's actually quite funny. BTWHave you ever been to an A League game?
Reynoldsinski
Guest
Kasey - how far has it come? Is it really that great? Average attendance has only increased by 1k in the last 7 years. Three teams have folded, and its hard to see where any other viable expansion. I don't have a problem with Australian Football, though I do have a problem with a lot of the fans. MV Dave below is crowing about an increase in aggregate attendance, but there must be about 50 extra matches this year as opposed to the first year. It seems like you lot of disgruntled AFL fans are the worse. I know it must be hard when AFL is shoved down your throats, but get the chip off your shoulder.
MV Dave
Guest
HAL 2013 will smash the previous attendance records by about 200,000 (about 12-15%). In the fist year of HAL there were just over 1 million attendees...this year will be over 1.7million. We're coming to get you Martyn50...
Martyn50
Roar Rookie
Kasey Please wake up. The media has been on about large growds since the mid 60's with the influx of English immigrants as 10pd poms. Didn't happen. Then in 1970's with the Italians and Greeks. Still didn't happen. Reason being that the standard of soccer is according to them about 3rd division in the UK and most after going once never again.Most Football fans follow the national code of football, generally called AFL
bryan
Guest
(1) I stand by my comment here----read & critically analyse your postings over several threads,& you may see why I have come to that conclusion. (2) I have never made disparaging remarks about the quality of the "A league",although I have criticised the Perth Glory for underperforming,just as I have made the same type of comment about the Fremantle Dockers. I follow both of these teams,but I do not subscribe to the the "unquestioning adulation" school. This whole "elite" "sub-thread" was started by a disparaging remark on the part of "Football Nation",referring to AFL & NRL. I quote:- "The other sports have too few players and way too many teams with way too many player per team… They are good local traditions but far from elite sporting comps" I pointed out that they were the elite competitions for those games. Countering another of his comments,I made the point that there were many other sports played at a world level in this country. You then poured petrol on the fire with your comment,which fits in quite well with your use on numerous other threads,of silly terms like "Strayan","Sockah",etc,all of which seem aimed at showing your innate superiority over all things Australian,excepting,perhaps, the "A League".
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
@bryan Let me see if I understand your reasoning. 1. You consider my attitude to be "plain old snobbery", BUT... 2. It's ok for people to make disparaging remarks about the quality of A-League, whilst they make lofty assessments about the "elite" quality of AFL & NRL? I strongly recommend you look up the meaning of: "IRONY"! :-D
bryan
Guest
You really love to be condescending,don't you Fuss? "Only in a society like AUS, which shuns elitism, would AFL & NRL be considered “elite”…" If " a society like AUS" is such anathema to you,why do you tolerate it? After all,if we are such a bunch of rednecks,why would you want the "A League" to "dumb itself down" to our level,to court popularity. Maybe they could become a 'boutique" competition,appearing before very small crowds of "elite" fans. OR you could leave our shores for some place where the competition is more "elite". The problem is,us rednecks like both the "A League" AND our traditional sport (of whatever kind),& consider your attitude plain old snobbery.
Benched
Guest
Bryan, point is, AFL, NRL, NBL support is sooooooooooooo boring. Yes, they may still be passionate, however the atmosphere just isn't a match.
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
@Reynoldsinski I used US Census Data. I haven't spent a lot of time in the USA - only been there for work & I certainly never ventured outside the central city areas during my visits so I've scant understanding of how the satellite towns are viewed as part of the greater city regions. I certainly had no idea Vancouver, Washington was considered part of Portland, Oregon. I did make one trip to watch the baseball in Milwaukee when I had a week's work in Chicago. Milwaukee is the largest city in Wisconsin & it reminded me of Geelong!
Reynoldsinski
Guest
Fussball - your posts have been very funny over the last couple of days. These two are all time classics. 1) MVFC to have its own 40k stadium by 2020 2) Only eight US cities have a greater population than Adelaide The second one is mind-boggling for someone who claims to be well travelled. In fact I would say it has revealed the real you.
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
"I follow the EPL a lot but only have a mild interest in the A league" What does this mean? Does it mean: a) you watch one, or more, full 90' games every weekend and, perhaps, you're an overseas Season Ticket holder?; or b) you watch 30 seconds highlights on Ch9 Sunday news & and know that Beckham played for ManUtd, so you can sound worldly at the water-cooler when the cute girls walk past? Only in a society like AUS, which shuns elitism, would AFL & NRL be considered "elite"... PS: Breaking news: The ASADA bans are starting to kick in ... up to 14 Cronulla players likely to miss the season. AFL will be next. If that's Aussie "elite" ... then I'm happy for A-League to not be the best.
Kasey
Guest
Why do some people who claim tobe sports fans (Like Martyn50 and serial pest Reynoldinski the Grouch) have such a hard time with football fans being happy when reflecting upon how far the game has come in such a short period of time and openly looking forward to a positive future, not based on hope/guesswork but based on solid reasoning and facts. What is your problem? Not that I expect ananswer from either you or that other dill-ski.
Entwhistle
Guest
I follow the EPL a lot but only have a mild interest in the A league - a lot of my soccer playing mates are the same. The first discussion at Sunday Barb qs is how their team went in the EPL overnight . The A league gets a mention but doesnt have the star power - hence they will never take over from AFL and NRL, RU has the same but lesser problem...