Gold Coast Suns 2013 AFL preview

There's an argument to that. Last year, Buddy was out for 6 weeks and the Hawks played easily their best footy during that time. Rather than having Buddy dominating the forward arc with every entry, they're structure actually clicked and there was multiple goalkickers in each game (Gunston, Hodge, Lewis, Roughead, Rioli, Breust). Though I wouldn't say the same about Ablett...his absence leaves a gaping hole in the Suns' hard ball gets.

Yes, agree with your last comment about the blog posts as last year it was a little out of control. In any case, that was last year and hopefully this year Carlton and their supporters won't be counting their swans/hawks/magpies/crows before they hatch and they can avenge last year's GC defeat.

Matt F but again the question is does being overly Ablett/Buddy conscious outweigh the benefits of having Ablett/Buddy in the side?

I agree with you here josh. Having Ablett in the team often gave the GC players an "easy out" for want of a better phrase. At times you could tell that their Plans A, B and C were to give it to Gary and hope that he does something amazing with the ball. When Ablett wasn't playing they didn't have the easy out so they had to stand up and actually look for the best option. That's not a criticism of Ablett, he's just doing his job. It's a bit like the Hawks and Buddy. They are at times too Buddy-concious and go to him when there are better options available. Their instinct at times is just to go "where's Buddy?" and kick it to him no matter who else is available. When he's missing the players have to identify the genuine, best option and at times they look more effective. Again that's not a criticism of Franklin, but his team mates who should play that way when he returns to the side but too often revert back to the "kick it to Buddy at all costs" method.

Weren't switched on from the start, then didn't take their opportunities (I thought 11.20 to 15.8 might of given you a clue). And it is hardly an unusual tale, the longer you leave a side everyone expects you to beat in a contest the more confident they get and they tighter you get. Add to that the injury to McInnes leaving them completely bereft of a key defender to stop Lynch and you get a boil over. Although it could of been because someone posted something on a blog as you suggested yesterday.

Yeah, your right. That is a big difference. So why on earth did they not win, and how on earth were they trailing by 38 points at half time?

Melb - 8 more scoring shots, 23 more inside 50's, 13 more tackles (or 30% more) plus more clearances and contested possessions is hardly "can run up and down a field all day and kick amongst themselves without scoring"

Ian, There is too much focus on the stats sheet for that game. Anybody can run up and down a field all day and kick amongst themselves without scoring. It was like Carlton players were racking up fantasy footy points instead of focusing on winning (maybe another AFL investigation awaits?). GC got off to a flyer and led by 6 goals mid way through the first quarter which set them up well, both on the scoreboard and by sucking the confidence out of Carlton. Carlton did blow some opportunities in front of goal in the second with poor kicking, but doesnt anyone believe in pressure footy anymore? The other thing GC did in that game was hold firm when Carlton did come back to within 4 points at the 15 minutes mark of the final quarter.

Josh - The Hard Ball role you suggest is a bit of a myth, have a look at his contested possession and clearance figures, underwhelming is the word for it. And to argue that he will get a game just because of his size seems to almost be conceding my point. And Hunt isn't exactly the epitomy of Match Fitness. He'll get a game here and there through injury and possibly the unwillingness of the Suns to conced their million dollar player isn't up to it but if the Suns put their best team on the park each week he won't be in it. And Campbell Brown might want to lift his game too.

Personally, I'd question the match fitness of some of their players still. I know 3 preseaons's etc... that typically gets them right. But most of those from the Blues game are ready for a full season just yet. And none of them perform the hard at the ball role he has done for them. He has a niche role, you might question it's effectiveness, but it's essentially his role. otherwise he could easily fill Campbell Brown's do nothing role up forward.

You may well be right about the effect Ablett had on the Suns players but he also performed well above Scully and Ward. The Giants players aren't that much ahead of where the Suns were last year but the Giants don't have anyone to perform like Ablett. Also you have to ask how much more the likes of Ablett could teach the Suns compared with the like sOf Scully nad Ward?

You might call it the anti Hunt band wagon but where does he fit?

Still on the anti-Hunt bandwagon?

Ablett hampered the Suns a bit I think. the Giants have had to stand on their two feet since the start. The Suns can and did rely on Ablett. When Ablett was out injured you could see it finally dawned on the youngsters, Ablett doesn't have to do everything for them. So in terms of game awareness the Giants were slightly ahead first year in. But match fitness its the Suns, now. The Suns need to continue to work on not getting the ball to Ablett every other possession.

Ian - I wasn't arguing with the rational behind the structure of the two teams, in fact I think you are pretty much right about it but just because the Suns "took their chances" isn't exactly them same as "doing a number". The blues weren't switched on at the start and the Suns too their chances, from then on the blues threw away their chances, that isn't a good long term strategy that will win you many games, 9 times out of 10 on the exact same stats the blues win easy. The Suns need to start creating more chances as most teams won't blow as many as the blues did that night. For the record I think they will. As for Hunt a demonstration of how hard it will be for Hunt to get a game this year here is the Suns Team that beat the BLues Gold Coast Suns B: Taylor Hine, Michael Coad, Jeremy Taylor HB: Daniel Stanley, Matthew Warnock, Jarrod Harbrow C: Kyal Horsley, Gary Ablett, Matt Shaw HF: Jacob Gillbee, Tom Lynch, Brandon Matera F: Alik Magin, Steven May, Campbell Brown Foll: Charlie Dixon, Josh Caddy, Harley Bennell I/C: Maverick Weller, Piers Flanagan, Trent McKenzie, Tom Hickey Out of that side go Hickey & Caddy, in come Murphy, Broughton, O'meara, Lonergan, Rischitelli, Bock, Smith, Swallow and possibly a couple of other youngsters whoi have had good pre-seasons. Where exactly does Hunt fit in?

Macca, Actually, those stats show why Im right. As an outside team, the Suns are built to maximise their returns from the opportunities they get. As an inside team, the Giants are built to maximise the number of opportunities they get. Based on the stats sheet, Carlton should have wonr - but with the outside talent Gold Coast have, they rip you apart on half a sniff, as they turn almost nothing in the way of time and space into something and beat a fundamentally soft Carlton side. And, as always, you're flat out wrong about Hunt.

Ian - Before you get too carried away with the midfield "doing a job on Carlton" - if you look at that game the blues clealryl won almost every stat, the blues kicked a very wasteful 11.20 (plus a few out on the full) to a particularly accurate 15.8. After quarter time the blues kicked 9.17 to 9.7. The blues went inside 50 66 to 43, had 365 possessions to 291, laid 57 tackles to 44 and from memory won the clearances and the contested possession count. The big difference in that game was Lynch (not the midfield ) who even got the 3 votes and his dominance could partly be put down to the early injury to McInnes (and the non-Selection of McCarthy) which left the blues with Gibbs & White very much undersized trying to play the key back positions (due to the absence of Henderson, Jamison & Laidler). So while it was a very good win for the Suns (and a very bad loss for the blues) I wouldn't be using it as a watershed moment. And Hunt will be using his size in the 2's quite a bit this season if the Suns progress as expected.

Very good summary Ian. Accurate and succint. My own personal view is that the Suns will finish ahead of the Giants in 2013, and that will be the last time they achieve that for a number of years. I think the Giants will become scarily good. Coniglio, Whitfield, Greene, Treloar, Cameron and Patton are all just about as certain to become superstars of the game as any young player at the moment.

The Suns are built around a brilliant, silky smooth midfield of Swallow, Ablett, Bennell and O'Meara. The job they did on a Carlton that thought it would play finals is an indication of what they can do. They are built to be a fast, skillful, outside team, with Hunt providing the physical threat to let the outside backs do their thing. GWS are built around two gorilla forwards in Patton and Cameron. Their workmanlike midfield of Giles, Ward, Greene, Scully and Coniglio is hard working, but lacks the class that the Gold Coast midfield oozes ... but the forward line has a lot more to kick to. Its built to be tough, hard and resilient - its a ball-winning, inside game built around the quick kick to the big forward in a contest. Two different game styles, and it'll be great to see the two sides play each other over the years.

The Giants don't have an Ablett, so at this stage they won't match the Suns.