Previewing the 2013 AFL season

There’s nothing that ignites the passions of a sports lover (as we all are here on The Roar) like a set of pre-season predictions.

We all enjoy the debate they start, and it is the signal for us to start thinking seriously about our chosen sport. In my case, of course, it’s AFL that I love the most, so let’s get straight into it.

Starting at the foot of the table, I’m predicting the expansion sides to finish ahead of an established club for the first time.

The Western Bulldogs are a team of workhorses with only one game-breaker, Ryan Griffen, among them. By far the worst disposers of the ball in the competition, they still ranked third for using the centre-corridor last season, which was a recipe for disaster.

As Mick Malthouse has preached for decades, turning the ball over in the middle of the ground opens up your defence, and the Dogs averaged over 100 points against in 2013. No wonder Brian Lake was desperate to get out of there.

With no forward line to speak of and a much tougher draw than the rest of their expected fellow cellar-dwellers, by season’s end a wooden spoon can be added to the Whitten Oval cabinet that contains a lonely premiership cup.

Both Greater Western Sydney and Gold Coast will have benefited from a season of AFL experience in 2012, and we can expect more of the same this year.

If they can show gradual improvement and double their win tally from last year, that will be a pass mark in my eyes.

Jeremy Cameron was the pick of the Giants’ crop, with contested marking and goal-kicking the feature of his game, while at the Suns we saw a shining star dazzle us in the form of Harley Bennell. I expect both to be top ten players in the competition for a long period of time once they fully mature.

Melbourne and Port round out the bottom five, although each should improve significantly on the often-inept football they played last year.

When building their lists for 2013, both clubs embraced the idea of cast-offs from other AFL clubs and mature-age players from the state leagues, while still drafting highly-rated young talent from the under-age competition.

While such a strategy may not help them necessarily win more games against good opposition, it should enable them to remain more competitive for longer.

Essendon and St Kilda are the only other two clubs that I can’t see playing finals this year.

History tells us that pre-season turmoil is not the recipe for on-field success, and the Bombers have had a hellish time of it since Christmas due to the PED cloud that surrounds the entire club. We’re often told that playing this game at the highest level requires 100 percent commitment and focus, which must be difficult to do with the threat of a six-month or two-year ban hanging over your head.

Even if there is no case to answer for Jobe Watson and co, it’s doubtful they have enough quality outside their top bracket of players to make the eight this year.

The Saints have the second-oldest list entering 2013, not a situation you want after dropping ladder positions in three consecutive seasons and missing the finals for the first time in five.

The loss of Brendan Goddard will hardly be offset by welcoming Trent Dennis-Lane into the fold, even if Scott Watters does seem intent of building a side consisting purely of small forwards.

St Kilda were consistently average at everything last season, and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. No side with finals aspirations should be losing to them this year, and they can expect a few more dips before they rise again.

North Melbourne made the finals in 2012 off the back of a friendly draw that saw them enjoy repeat matches against the expansion sides and Western Bulldogs, although comfortable victories over Collingwood, Geelong and Adelaide throughout the season meant they deserved their spot.

This time around the Roos have been dealt a fixture that will test every measure of their improvement, but in a season where the depth of talent in the top eleven sides is strong, it should be enough to prevent them from getting into the eight and suffering another humiliation come finals time.

Now comes the really tricky part, finding two quality sides to miss out on finals action this year. In what will be sure to stir some controversy, I’m going with Geelong and Carlton in the tightest of calls.

Geelong will still be strong, and I’m liable to end up with egg on my face with this one, but it may be a lull year before they rise up the ladder once more. They can’t contend again, can they?

I’m giving Mick Malthouse and the Carlton players a year to adjust to each other by placing the Blues outside the eight, but it’s entirely conceivable that they could push for a top-four spot, which says to me we could be in for a cracking season.

The three sides I’ve got ahead of Carlton and Geelong that may turn some heads are Adelaide, Brisbane and Richmond.

The Blues and Cats have older lists than the three teams I’ve placed ahead of them in the sixth-eighth positions, and I’m going to bank on natural improvement from the younger teams to overtake them.

In Adelaide’s favour is another good draw, including seven matches at AAMI Stadium in the first half of the year to build momentum with, and away games they’ll fancy themselves in.

I’m still not certain their list is as strong as others may suspect, but in Dangerfield, Sloane and Walker they’ve got three of the most exciting talents in the competition.

Brisbane brings the NAB Cup form that usually stands up once the real stuff begins, and I can see them taking the confidence gained from a pre-season premiership to a 4-1 win-loss ratio after five rounds of the season proper.

They appear to have improved across every line, so dismiss them at your peril.

Richmond improved significantly in 2012, despite not increasing their ladder position. A series of matches where they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory could easily have been turned into another three or four wins.

The Tigers have a fine balance of inside grunt and outside silk through the midfield, and a defence that’s growing together with high hopes of becoming a formidable combination.

A glaring weakness in recent times has been an inability to convert their forward entries into goals and, if this problem is rectified as I believe it can be, then finals beckon for the first time since 2001.

Hawthorn is the team I’ve got just missing out on the top four, even though they should be well ahead of sixth when the season ends.

Despite the acquisition of Brian Lake to stiffen the defence, to my eye they don’t have as much improvement in them as the other top sides going into 2013. This situation isn’t helped by the loss of prime link-man Matt Suckling with an ACL injury.

Their forward line will always be the most dangerous while Lance Franklin is at the peak of his powers, and their midfield relishes every contest, but the Hawks stand charged of being mentally weak, and only a glory-laden September can put those accusations to bed.

Patersons Stadium is going to become a fortress again this season with West Coast and Fremantle once more set to dominate at the ‘
‘House of Pain’ on the way to top four berths.

The Eagles bat as deep through the midfield any team bar Collingwood in the competition, complemented by a sturdy defence and a multi-pronged attack of great variety.

John Worsfold commands an impressive outfit that sticks to their structures with great discipline and their ‘press’ is arguably the most feared in the league.

My number one rule for piecing together a ladder at the start of any season is to work out where I think the Ross Lyon coached team will finish, and then elevate them a couple of places.

We know that he is able to get the best out of the troops under his command, and we saw evidence of that in 2012 in his first year at Fremantle’s helm.

The Dockers will derive great confidence from dismantling Geelong in their elimination final last year, and it’s hard to think that they won’t improve on last years’ position, especially with Nat Fyfe and David Mundy back to full fitness.

I consistently underrated Sydney throughout 2012, but they certainly earned my grudging respect by mixing inside toughness with some attractive outside play.

Few teams rebounded out of defence with as much dash and dare as they, and the cohesiveness of their back six when under pressure was truly something to behold.

A premiership medal does wonders for a player’s reputation, but the Swans have so much quality on every line, and there is a great degree of versatility in their line-up.

While they’ve had their form troubles in the pre-season, their opening two matches don’t come any softer, and I don’t see them dropping outside the top four.

Collingwood are the team I’ve got on top, and their run of sustained excellence over many seasons is there for all to see.

With a backline that’s chock-full of experience and skill, a rotating forward-line built around the most powerful forward in the competition, and a star-studded midfield the envy of all in the AFL, their best 22 has All-Australians on every line and is almost impossible to contain when in peak form.

So here it is, my ladder for 2013:

Collingwood
West Coast
Sydney
Fremantle
Hawthorn
Richmond
Adelaide
Brisbane
Geelong
Carlton
North Melbourne
Essendon
St Kilda
Melbourne
Gold Coast
Port
Greater Western Sydney
Western Bulldogs

Who have I got right? Who have I got wrong? Let me know below, and let the debate begin!