Initially projected as a premiership favourite, the notion the West Coast Eagles were on the edge of joining the AFL’s elite took a nosedive after just one round of football.
Should we buy into the factors that suggest the Eagles are set for a surprise drop off in 2013, or are we simply overreacting?
The Fremantle Dockers produced a 28-point upset win over cross-town rivals West Coast last Saturday and they did so in convincing fashion.
The Eagles’ midfielders were outplayed by what now appears to be a finally healthy, and severely underrated, set of Docker ball winners – a huge concern for coach John Worsfold and his staff.
The deficiencies of the West Coast midfield may have been completely overlooked heading into 2013.
The West Coast midfield is primed with depth, youth and talent, but few of those qualities were on display against Fremantle.
Daniel Kerr, Sharrod Wellingham and Matt Rosa were all absent due to injury and young guns Scott Selwood, Luke Shuey and Andrew Gaff were outshone by their Fremantle opponents.
Matt Priddis was at his prolific best with 28 disposals, but was plagued by the often lacklustre disposal efficiency (38% against Fremantle) that has blighted his career thus far.
Many consider West Coast’s midfield not far behind the game’s best, however the team is also simultaneously depending upon a ton of development from within.
Priddis’ ball-winning ability makes him the engine room of the Eagles midfield, but he’s not the game changer they are missing. West Coast envision Shuey developing into that star role, but his performances in the past two derbies against a heavy Ryan Crowley tag may draw the attention of other clubs.
West Coast will undoubtedly experience a boost when it reaches full health, but with a number of elite midfields already knocking about, will it be enough to guarantee a top-four spot?
Even last year, when West Coast held an average of 22 hit-outs more than finals-bound opponents (and an average of seven more hit-outs to advantage), they still found themselves third behind Adelaide and Hawthorn in the clearances department, negating the advantage of the brilliant Dean Cox-Nic Naitanui ruck combination.
Good opposition loaded up numbers around stoppages last season as a way to limit West Coast’s clearance opportunities and the lack of effectiveness around the ruck may be a result of the lack of midfield height.
Against the likes of Michael Barlow, Nat Fyfe, David Mundy and Ryan Crowley – all at or around 190cm tall – the significantly smaller players from West Coast, all smaller than 185cm, are at a disadvantage when the ball is in the air.
The loss to Fremantle is a continuation of West Coast’s average form away from their Perth fans last season. The Eagles were a poor team on the road in 2012, six of their eight losses came during away games – something that must improve this season.
The only real advantage the team experienced away from home last year was in the ruck, yet they still managed to finish the season with a lower average score than their opponents.
In comparison, Adelaide, a top four team last season and a club also primed for a slip if round one was anything to go by, was significantly better than their opponents outside of South Australian in just about every meaningful statistical category, including scoring four more goals on average than their home team opponents.
In all likelihood the reaction to West Coast’s disappointing round one performance has been overblown, however this club may be a little further away from competing for a premiership than many pundits originally thought.
rik
Guest
Eagles season is over the game tonight was beyond believe they do not deserve to be there. Questions need to be asked about the ability of JW. He was totally outclassed as a couch sorry big fan but how long do we go on. we have the players but not the results. END GAME coming your way John.
Sir Bruce-alot of Tooting
Guest
Eagles have no big bodies in the mid field and if you look at successful teams over recent years; Geelong, Hawthorn & Sydney they all host some big bodied mid fielders who can win contested footy under finals pressure. The Eagles mid-field have probably been a little overrated in the past due to the Silver service the Cox/Nic-Nat provide. Some people believe Nic-Nat is overrated but with a 3&1 bench the flexibility Nic-Nat/Cox provide is almost worth an extra player as both are premium rucks and can be effective forwards. Essentially the Eagles mid field is solid but host no world beaters, and for the Eagles to challenge for top spot in 2013 they need to add real hard edge to some of their(Gaff & Rosa) mid field to make up for their lack of size and Cox/Nic-Nat need to be fit and firing.
Rosso
Guest
Brennan may be the key in the middle... Gee he's quick...
DILLIGAF
Guest
I see it like some that the midfield was where WCE lost that one but were always going to struggle. Shuey was well held and with Scott Selwood and Priddas the only hard ball winners it's no wonder. Kerr needs to be fit for a good season to make a difference there. Plenty of runners in Gaff, Embley, Wellinham, Rosa, Cripps, Morton will do well but need to get it there first. Coxy didn't dominate like usual but support him with Nic Nat, Kerr and Wellingham and WCE will show just how dangerous they can be. Freo were gifted 7 frees in front of goal for this game and although outplayed in the midfield Darling missing 2 set shots, Selwood missing 1, Hams missing 1 and a few others really doesn't mean a slide down the ladder, but I guess someone had to write what the haters are hoping
Nathan of Perth
Roar Rookie
MCG contracts?
Matt F
Roar Guru
Why would they play an all-WA elimination final in Melbourne? ;)
Jazza
Guest
Ill write this in caps so I get the message across.........THE SEASON IS TWO GAMES OLD!!!!
Avatar
Roar Guru
Hopefully this isn't an indicator of how West Coast will fare in 2013. They are a much better side than what many people think; remember that they dominated the first half only to get blown away in the second. It's still early in the season and there is still hope for Eagles fans. Just remember this: in 2005, Sydney lost four of their first six matches but rebounded to win the premiership. In 2007, Geelong lost in the first round to a team that eventually failed to make the finals, and then went on to win the premiership. That proves that anything is possible in the AFL.
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Derby XXXIX will be played in Melbourne, perhaps? Ay, ayyyyy?
Nathan of Perth
Guest
The Bombers one doesn't bother me so much, we were at the nadir of our injuries and Essendon at the zenith of their form, and we gave Collingwood a pasting at Subi and could have shocked them in Melbourne if not for some momentum changing goof-ups (looking at you Embley and Lynch). Hawthorn was not too bad, they shocked us for a quarter but we performed strongly for the rest of the game and they did go on to contest the GF and arguably choked on it. But the Swans and the Adelaide games were worries, BIG worries. This year, no matter the opposition or injury toll, we cannot accept such a result again. Agree on Brennan, a lot of time for that kid.
Gerard Klomp
Guest
Yes the Eagles will be there on the Last Saturday in September, With Naitanui Back and Kerr and Wellingham all fit and playing the Eagles will be back. I though Jason Cripps played very well on Saturday. All with Priddis and Josh Kennedy. Go the Mighty Eagles. from Mystery Man.
Lroy
Guest
Well IM a WCE supporter, and the one thing that worried me last year, was our poor record against the other top sides. We lost 2/3 against Collingwood, got spanked by the Bombers, Crows and Swans and the Hawks beat us quite comfortably in the last game of the season. WCE have a good side across the board, but do not have that X factor midfield the top sides have. Really think they need to gamble on someone like Jake Brennan, kids quick, tackles like a demon , has good skills. To me his inclusion should be a no brainer by now. But, if he comes in, a high profile name is going to have to go out... thats the rub.
Richo
Guest
Too early to make judgements based on Round 1 result. Hawthorn were 2-3 after 5 rounds then only lost one more game for the home and away season. In contrast Essendon were flying high (quite literally as it turns out) but then lost their last 8 matches. Good coaches prime their team to perform at their best in September not in March.
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Of course, the defensive structures largely held until Mackenzie went down. Why we ran with Ash Smith instead of Jacob Brennan I haven't the foggiest. Almost assuredly cost us two goals at the selection table right there. I have grave fears about our Flag ambitions at the moment, with the injury toll as it stands. However, that doesn't translate into "will be a slider". I think people need to remember that, as with Hawthorn last year, a seemingly poor win-loss record often just reflects which opponents have already been faced. If we end up 0-2, well, losses against Fremantle and Hawthorn do not into slides translate. Any top team is capable of knocking over any other top team at this stage. And Fremantle are a very, very dangerous side this year, and it was their home game.
johno
Guest
Not sure where the pace is going to come from for West Coast. They were shown up by Hill, Walters and D Pearce on the weekend. Something I think a lot of other clubs will look to exploit with quick balls forward breaking the West Coast defensive structures. WC have a tough end to the season and they will want as many wins on the board as they can get before they finish with Essendon, Geelong, Collingwood and Adelaide.
Mighty Mitch
Roar Rookie
Agreed. I think this is less about WC and more about where Freo are going to be.
andrew
Guest
No surprises here to me - I follow both WA teams with great interest and was amazed to see the lack of pregame positive press for Freo. In plain light last seasons they were more than a few notches above my beloved WC in all areas on field and will seriously challenge for the flag in 2013.
TomC
Roar Guru
I'm wary about reading too much into the result of the derby. Not sure it's always a great indicator. But I have to admit I was a bit disappointed by many of the Eagles' young midfielders on Saturday. Once the Dockers started to get on top it didn't seem like anyone was there to stand up and turn the game. Priddis worked hard as always but he's not all that damagin. JJ Kennedy was very impressive though. I can't see Masten, Shuey, Selwood and Gaff having as little impact for the rest of the season as they did on Saturday night. I do wonder though if they're quite ready to challenge for the flag. Interesting article.