This year’s Lions will be different – why? For the first in a long time they will not be better than their individual parts.
Several events have played Australia’s way – the resurgence of Wales the most telling – and last year’s Wallabies injury list has given Oz a sniff at backup and choice.
Who could have thought we could contemplate parity without Pocock? But we can.
Of course the Lions’ overall group selection will be strong guaranteeing depth.
But it is the starting line up we have to run out against. Here is where things are different this time around.
The last month has seen hundreds of scribes, ex-players, and names not recognised all offering their selection opinion and starting team for Suncorp.
You would expect divergence – but this time the difference and spread in all positions is astounding after a Six Nations and Autumn series just completed.
This is partly because of contradictory results such as England smashing the Wallabies, Italy exposing England (while still losing), and Wales’ demolition of England.
What this spread of opinion and individual form says is that – for once – there is not much to choose between candidates for each position.
Rather than there being seven or eight standouts from four countries which when combined are an awesome step up in combined capability, we actually have parity in most positions.
The conclusion is that the combination of the four Unions will not necessarily be any better than England or Wales’ stand alone teams. Yes, those two teams we beat away in the Autumn.
It can even be argued that the situation is even better than that for Australia. England was heading for Six Nations victory and the lion’s share of the pack selection. Wales threw that into the used orange can .
England has always been our highest risk opponent up north. Countless times they have tipped us even when we were firm favourites – 1995 Rugby World Cup quarter-finals in South Africa, 2007 Rugby World Cup in Marseille and the 2003 Rugby World Cup (where we punched above our weight).
All knockout matches. Then remember uncontested scrums at Twickenham (groan) and pushover/penalty tries at Twickenham again (groan again) and even early season defeat in Australia – they dined out on this like the last supper for a year or so.
Wales’ recent record against Australia is poor but close – it is Wallaby edge for sure.
The Six Nation final has very conveniently splintered the English Lion’s selection – and most importantly split them up for the starting lineup.
There is nothing between them and they won’t be better than either team – and with no English left who were part of earlier domination – no Sheridan at last!
The Wallabies really have it all to play for with the best recent record against them when our best players were missing .
And a word about the backs – Genia stands king – Sexton and Farrell are great distributors but are not go forward playmakers – midfield will almost certainly start Roberts and O’Driscoll first up at Suncorp .
Roberts is very well known and O’Driscoll is my all time favourite for vision but not the playmaker he was. North will play and wouldn’t surprise if Tuilagi starts wing (he rarely passes wider anyhow). Halfpenny is their best back.
Australia should not be overawed by this group. We will need big tacklers but what’s new in that?
Wallaby forwards – starting and bench – will now take care of itself and will change over three Tests.
Deans backs selection and combinations is the making or breaking – I don’t envy him – but hope he doesnt ignore form and pad up again only with old stalwarts.
My favourite James O’Connor has been going backwards in a retreating team – so no form – sadly with no warm up test he has to make way and bench it.
How the ARU could ever agree to a Lions series with no warm up test before it is nigh on negligent – the Wallabies’ first Test of the season have historically been notoriously risky .
Other than that – bring it on!
Greg Kinkade
Guest
This is far and away the most powerful lions team to face Australia. forget the recent Aussie wins in Wales over MUCH depleted teams, they are a complete red herring. Where Wales have weaknesses the other home nations have strengths and the dovetail is a very good fit. The Lions pack is frightening both in terms of the power of the front five and the strength and mobility of the back row. I would be very suprised if the Aussie front row dont spend half the tests in the bin for collapsing an obliterated scrum. The Lions to win 2-1 if they lose the first test and 3-0 if they win it.
HERSH
Roar Rookie
The truth is Gatland had made his mind up about a number of English players before the 6 Nations even started, for me you take the best players available no matter what their personalities are like.
The Bush
Roar Guru
I agree with this. Perhaps in 2010, when they were both firing, Cooper and Beale would have got a go at 10 and 15, but not now. The reality is Australia doesn't have anything like the talent - they have a few with potential (see Gill for example), but not established superstars (other than Genia and Pocock, who isn'e playing). What we will have is a team of players who haven't just played a massive northern hemisphere season and, knowning Deans, established combinations (as he won't pick on form - he'll stick to his favourites). Will this be enough to win? Probably, but I am only basing this on the fact that the Lions haven't won in over fifteen (15) years and no Northern Hemisphere side has dominated on a normal international level in over a decade. Should be close, going to be exciting and I can't wait!
The Bush
Roar Guru
You must be kidding...
Rugby Fan
Roar Guru
Gatland said nothing of the sort, and there's no evidence at all that "most English fans" are unhappy with Gatland being in charge of the Lions. Lions coaches do get pilloried in the press these days, but usually only after the wheels have fallen off on tour. In reality, only Henry and Woodward have proved to be really divisive figures. Welsh fans, in particular, were unhappy with Woodward's squad selection but the boots really went in after a string of poor tour performances. Henry's mismanagement might even have been overlooked if the Test series had been won. Gatland will be judged by what happens on tour; a supporter's mind must be small if it is made up already.
HERSH
Roar Rookie
Gatland has already said that not many English players are going to tour due to the media attention they receive, Most English fans aren't very happy with Gatland being in charge due to these comments basically we believe he is going to pick mainly Welsh players to have another go at you to gain revenge for last summers failed Welsh tour. The simple fact is Wales have played one decent game in 12 months and that was with the help of the Ref (Walsh) destroying scrumtime, If you think England players and fans are arrogant then prepare yourselves for the Welsh boyos, they are 10 times worse. Roberts hasn't played well since the 2011 RWC and doesn't deserve to be anywhere near the Lions team, and O'Driscoll is still at the top of his game believe me.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
Doubt it. Positionally and defensively he's erratic, and Gatland has made noises about experience being a key issue. Personally I would consider Yarde and May over Wade for England, let alone the Lions. Varndell could be in with a shout, but again I think Gatland will stick with current Test players. It also depends on what style he's looking to play. He's made reference to the fact that he won't play a 10 man game, in which case he might bring Flood, which could lead to the inclusion of Ashton. North and Cuthbert are dead certs, with Bowe probably high up there, and then maybe Visser. But then does Maitland get the nod due to his knowledge of Australian rugby?
Ben.S
Roar Guru
* I'd suggest that a Lions pack will be demonstrably better than the Welsh or English pack. That always tends to be the case on Lions tours. England can offer stronger scrummagers at loosehead than Jenkins, Hibbard is a better scrummager and thrower than Tom Youngs, AW Jones is more experienced than Geoff Parling, Tom Croft is far better in the air than Lydiate, Tipuric is a better link man than Robshaw, for example, and so on... * The Welsh had a number of injuries during the recent Wallaby games too. * You don't actually say in what areas, and how, the Wallaby forwards will gain parity with the potential Lions? * On what basis will the Wallaby side be better? It was pretty mediocre in 2011 and all the top guns were on board then. * Wales being 1/10 is also pretty irrelevant. In 2 of the most recent 3 Tests in Australia the Wallabies won in the last minute. Further, the Wallaby side will have no warm-up games in which to gel. Just chucking in talented players doesn't necessarily mean there will automatically be an improvement in performance.
Ted
Roar Rookie
HT I'm not comparing in this post the respective Wallaby v Lions positions . My point is that a combined English Wales + pack won't be demonstrably better than the English or Welsh separately . With Wallaby complement of fit players back to good level we should fancy ourself against either of those on tour in Oz having last beaten them away .your claim that we have no parity in any position belies actual results even with all our injured first line players. IMO the combo side won't be better than the separate nations - our backs and forwards will be better than last year and the Welsh Lions reserve their greatest and fiercest passions to beating England for the 6 nations - or any time - and provably not Oz where they are 1 from 10 recently.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
Re: the home loss to England - Wilkinson also missed a penalty from right in front of the posts, and Australia scored a 7 pointer from a blatant forward pass. A lot of Roarers try to use the score as an indication that the game was close. It was close, but England were clearly the better side. It was hardly the one that got away. The most recent game at Twickenham was closer.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
That tackle aside he was generally pretty good. Excellent is obviously an overstatement, but he always made ground, although clearly he is a fullback and not a left wing.
Ted
Roar Rookie
Yes sorry . - obviously the Blacks game in that sequence of three - high to low .
Ted
Roar Rookie
Cramps - oh yes - obviously meant the Blacks demolition - sorry for that but probably obvious.
Rugby Fan
Roar Guru
It's not uncommon for the Lions to be less than the sum of their parts. The last time they toured Australia is a prime example. Four years later in NZ also counts, although it's highly unlikely that they would have beaten the All Blacks even then if their combinations had clicked.
Jagman
Guest
The interesting thing is that you might expect the Lions to be mostly welsh then English, Irish and Scottish. But in the Deans era the Wallabies have had most success over these teams in that same order. Wales 9 games 1 loss away England 6 games 1 (one point and pathetic penalty attempt) loss at home, one loss away Ireland 4 games one draw away one loss on neutral soil (but the kiwis were all supporting Ireland) Scotland 2 games 2 losses at home and away. (one game was really an ABC Test team mixed together and the weather was remarkably unusual.) Should Gatland then pick more Scotts?
Kane
Guest
Really? Please go ahead and name them.
Kane
Guest
For once I agree with you here
Cramps
Guest
I stopped reading at 'England smashing the Wallabies' - get your facts straight.
Sailosi
Guest
Is Christian Wade a smokey to tour?
Dirk
Guest
What rubbish. Only 2 Wallabies are better in their respective positions than their NH counterparts?Are you an insecure kiwi by any chance? ffs, most of the Brumbies players are better than the Lions players.