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This year’s Lions will be different – why? For the first in a long time they will not be better than their individual parts.
Several events have played Australia’s way – the resurgence of Wales the most telling – and last year’s Wallabies injury list has given Oz a sniff at backup and choice.
Who could have thought we could contemplate parity without Pocock? But we can.
Of course the Lions’ overall group selection will be strong guaranteeing depth.
But it is the starting line up we have to run out against. Here is where things are different this time around.
The last month has seen hundreds of scribes, ex-players, and names not recognised all offering their selection opinion and starting team for Suncorp.
You would expect divergence – but this time the difference and spread in all positions is astounding after a Six Nations and Autumn series just completed.
This is partly because of contradictory results such as England smashing the Wallabies, Italy exposing England (while still losing), and Wales’ demolition of England.
What this spread of opinion and individual form says is that – for once – there is not much to choose between candidates for each position.
Rather than there being seven or eight standouts from four countries which when combined are an awesome step up in combined capability, we actually have parity in most positions.
The conclusion is that the combination of the four Unions will not necessarily be any better than England or Wales’ stand alone teams. Yes, those two teams we beat away in the Autumn.
It can even be argued that the situation is even better than that for Australia. England was heading for Six Nations victory and the lion’s share of the pack selection. Wales threw that into the used orange can .
England has always been our highest risk opponent up north. Countless times they have tipped us even when we were firm favourites – 1995 Rugby World Cup quarter-finals in South Africa, 2007 Rugby World Cup in Marseille and the 2003 Rugby World Cup (where we punched above our weight).
All knockout matches. Then remember uncontested scrums at Twickenham (groan) and pushover/penalty tries at Twickenham again (groan again) and even early season defeat in Australia – they dined out on this like the last supper for a year or so.
Wales’ recent record against Australia is poor but close – it is Wallaby edge for sure.
The Six Nation final has very conveniently splintered the English Lion’s selection – and most importantly split them up for the starting lineup.
There is nothing between them and they won’t be better than either team – and with no English left who were part of earlier domination – no Sheridan at last!
The Wallabies really have it all to play for with the best recent record against them when our best players were missing .
And a word about the backs – Genia stands king – Sexton and Farrell are great distributors but are not go forward playmakers – midfield will almost certainly start Roberts and O’Driscoll first up at Suncorp .
Roberts is very well known and O’Driscoll is my all time favourite for vision but not the playmaker he was. North will play and wouldn’t surprise if Tuilagi starts wing (he rarely passes wider anyhow). Halfpenny is their best back.
Australia should not be overawed by this group. We will need big tacklers but what’s new in that?
Wallaby forwards – starting and bench – will now take care of itself and will change over three Tests.
Deans backs selection and combinations is the making or breaking – I don’t envy him – but hope he doesnt ignore form and pad up again only with old stalwarts.
My favourite James O’Connor has been going backwards in a retreating team – so no form – sadly with no warm up test he has to make way and bench it.
How the ARU could ever agree to a Lions series with no warm up test before it is nigh on negligent – the Wallabies’ first Test of the season have historically been notoriously risky .
Other than that – bring it on!
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.