The Spring Classics are done and dusted for 2013, and the Giro d’Italia is looming into clear sight. The form lines are being drawn, the favourites are being discussed.
Let’s take a look at the likely contenders for the first Grand Tour of the year.
Sure, three weeks is a long time, and form in the last week matters more than form in the first week, but hey – if this sort of speculation is wrong then I don’t want to be right.
Here are my first five favourites.
Ryder Hesjedal
As reigning Giro champion, Hesjedal gets the honour of first mention.
The tallest (and first) Canadian to win a Grand Tour, Hesjedal pinched the win from under the nose of diminutive non-Canadian Joaquim Rodriguez by a mere 16 seconds on the final (time trial) stage of the thrilling 2012 race.
You might describe Hesjedal’s 2013 form as ‘under the radar’, but his focus has clearly been on the Giro, and impressive rides supporting Dan Martin in the Volta a Catalunya and in this week’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege show his form is building.
Indeed, the ambitious solo drive on Sunday was the best indication yet that Hesjedal’s confidence and form are on track.
There has been some discussion about whether the 2013 Giro course is a honey trap for Bradley Wiggins, with 87km of time trialling. Arguably, this would also suit Hesjedal just as well.
He is very strong against the clock, and his 2012 win demonstrated he climbs exceptionally well for a man of his size (188cm).
Joaquim Rodriguez
Hesjedal’s closest rival in 2012, Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez, had the kind of year that most riders would dream about, finishing as the UCI’s number one-ranked rider, winning two monuments (Fleche-Wallonne and Giro di Lombardia), with two Grand Tour podiums.
But somehow it still seemed like his year was a failure, falling agonisingly short of both the Giro and the Vuelta a Espana victories, after leading both races for long periods.
Rodriguez has started 2013 in ominous form, culminating in a near-victory in Liege-Bastogne-Liege, second overall in Catalunya, and fifth in Tirreno Adriatico.
A nuggety little bulldog, Rodriguez can climb with the best, and specialises in launching vicious bursts of acceleration approaching the summit, a tactic which lends itself to small time gaps, stage victories, and time bonuses.
Did I mention there are six major summit finishes?
Did I also mention there are 20-second time bonuses for winning stages?
Suddenly, despite his relative weakness against the clock, Rodriguez looks a huge threat.
Bradley Wiggins
Sir Bradley Wiggins, Master of France, Knight of London, King of Tenerife.
OK, I made that last one up, but the biggest talking point for Britain’s mod on wheels this year has been his extended training camp in Tenerife, where he has presumably spent his days yoked to a power meter, being flogged by stylishly dressed robots (if you believe the wags on Twitter).
Wiggo’s form hasn’t looked compelling, being well beaten in this week’s Giro del Trentino by rival Vincenzo Nibali.
Admittedly, Wiggins suffered from a mechanical on the race’s final climb, which certainly cost him some time, but he looked less than fully convincing.
Underwhelming performances earlier in the season, some extra body weight, and some mixed public messages about his Tour de France ambitions gave some the impression Wiggins wasn’t fully committed to the Giro.
Wiggins’ absence from Tirreno-Adriatico and Paris-Nice didn’t increase the clarity around his form, although a fifth at Volta a Catalunya was promising.
The ability of his Sky team to control races may irritate some fans, but there’s no doubt it gives a tempo rider like Wiggins an incredible advantage.
If he’s at his best, I would consider Wiggins as outright favourite to win the Giro.
However, I’m not convinced he is near the untouchable form he carried through 2012, and I still get a sense he feels the team decision to give Tour de France leadership to Chris Froome was a snub.
I’m going to speculate like a Lehman Brothers executive here and say that Wiggins’ Giro will hinge on whether he has a good first week: a bit of bad luck could really shake his commitment to the race, and then it’s all over.
Conversely, a good start in stage two’s team time trial, and he might be flying by the second week.
Vincenzo Nibali
Astana’s marquee off-season signing, Vincenzo Nibali, has arguably the best form line of the major favourites, following a convincing overall victory in the Giro del Trentino.
Nibali looks in superb condition, and his win at Tirreno-Adriatico against, well, almost everyone who matters, showed he is in similar form to that which took him to the Tour de France podium in 2012.
In fact, Nibali looks better than he did last year. He climbs like a rat up a drainpipe and descends like a fish down an s-bend.
The move to Astana gives him stronger support in the mountains than he had at Liquigas-Cannondale, with teammates including Paolo Tiralongo, Fabio Aru, Valerio Agnoli, and Janez Brajkovic.
The key question for Nibali is whether his time trialling has improved enough.
In the final stage of Tirreno-Adriatico he dropped 11 seconds to Chris Froome, which sounds reasonable until you realise it was only a 9.2km course.
Extended to a 55km individual effort, you could easily see him dropping a minute to the likes of Wiggins and Hesjedal.
Cadel Evans
Cadel was well beaten in the Giro del Trentino last week. The key stage was stage two, won by Sky’s Kosta Siutsou.
While Wiggins and Nibali dueled each other on the final climb, Evans looked uncomfortable, was dropped early and coughed up 45 seconds to the pair.
They say you should never write off a champion, but to these jaded eyes it looks like Cadel’s Grand Tour contender days are done.
The fan in me desperately hopes I’m wrong. But the realist says Evans no longer possesses the ability to hold the wheels of the pure climbers, and his time trialling ability has slipped just enough that he can’t win back the time he loses.
Perhaps it’s age, perhaps it’s fatherhood and shifting priorities. Perhaps he’s still recovering from the illness that ruined his 2012 season. I don’t know. But I will be surprised if he’s on the podium in Brescia.
There are, of course, several others who I like the look of for the Giro. I’ll try to cover them next week, if my colleagues don’t beat me to it. Feel free to speculate on my speculations below.
Cam Baker
Guest
It is interesting looking back at this article with 12 stages down. Rodriguez didn't even turn up, Wiggans and Hesjedal have flopped and Cadel is exceeding expectations. At least you got Nibali correct...
Daz
Guest
I think Sir Bradley is looking in excellent shape - he has a kilo to lose maybe but that will have been shed in the run up to the Giro post Trentino. There is talk that Wiggo has put on some more muscle and I'm assuming this is deliberate - will he be able to respond to attacks more readily? In Trentino I was very impressed with his pace on the replacement bike - it looked like Siustou had waited for Wiggins to get a new bike and we assumme help pull him back to the leaders, but Wiggins blasted past him like he was not even there. Considering he was riding with no power meter and on the wrong chain rings (what a foul up) he looked fine. Only when it got too steeper and Nibs attacked did Wiggins look done - but if he'd been on the right gearing who knows? Also interesting to see Sir Bradley riding on his own. Deliberate tactic by Sky to get him to practise being isolated? Unlike the Tour when Wiggins was partnered by a better climber than himself, I think perhaps Sky assume Wiggins is going to be left on his own when the serious attacks come from Nibs and Rodriguez etc. On the subject of time bonuses - I don't like them. However they may work well here as they may force Wiggins to try and ride Nibs et al off his wheel in order to prevent them from nicking "easy" seconds off him on the line. Either way i can't wait to see if Wiggo's huge diesel engine can demolish Nibs and the likes of J-Rod or if their more punchy power leaves Wiggo for dust on the steep stuff! TT to be vital as well of course. Nibali needs to improve massively on 2012 or he's going to end up effectively 3 mins+ behind Wiggins before the race even starts.
Lee Rodgers
Expert
Great read, Tim! Last year the press - and in particular the Italian press - were condescending (at best!) to Hesjedal (aka 'That Canadian Guy' ;-) ) and at times just outright rude. I enjoiyed his win even more as a result. He will be marked but we have to also take into account the massive boost in confidence he will have. If he wins again, wow, briliant for him, and if he loses, well, he won one. He's kind of in a win-win situation right now, the pressure is not on him to repeat, bnut on the others to beat him. A very very good pro with a smart mind. I wouldn't discount him just yet.
Colin N
Guest
Will Hesjedal really challenge? I thought the only reason he helped Martin out in Catalunya was because he lost so much time in the previous stage as he was struggling to stay with the pace - although he did look good at the weekend. I also think Sir Wiggo looks pretty good actually. People within Sky are saying he's climbing better than ever and their preparations are going okay. Perhaps a bit frustrating that he hasn't got a podium but it's not quite gone for him this season, he's been a bit unfortunate, although Sky were naive (over confident?) in letting so many good climbers go in the queen Stage at Catalunya. It's interesting, though, that Sky seemed to purposely not help Wiggins up the climbs at the Trentino, instead letting Wiggins respond to attacks on his own, to prepare for what could happen at the Giro. And considering Astana had the dominant team he responded to Nibali's attacks quite comfortably on the first mountain stage only for a mechanical to prevent him from challenging the next day. Still, I think Nibali probably goes in as favourite as he's looked outstanding.
Tim Renowden
Expert
Interesting point of discussion. Hesjedal was always near the front of the race last year, as soon as Garmin won the team time trial in stage four he was ahead of most of the other contenders - and he was in pink from stages 8-10. For the next few stages he was clinging to Rodriguez' wheel, alternately gaining and losing small amounts of time. There wasn't any particular stage where he was given latitude to attack and take big chunks of time (a la Oscar Pereiro in the 2006 Tour), although he was able to take small chunks of time on stages 14 and 19 (balanced by Rodriguez doing the same on alternate stages). For the latter two weeks of the race the margin between Hesjedal and Rodriguez was oscillating around a relatively small range, with gaps of +/- 30 seconds changing hands. So I would argue that he was definitely being closely marked, even if not many people expected him to be able to climb so well. Now, no doubt he will be closely marked this year. I think the question is whether the extra attention is balanced by the extra confidence and belief within the team that comes from knowing you can win.
Tim Renowden
Expert
As I said in the article - as a fan I hope I'm wrong about Cadel! He is an amazing rider, but it's now a good 18 months since he's looked genuinely good on the bike, so as someone trying to be neutral... I reckon the battle between Sky and Astana has the potential to be red-hot. Astana looked really impressive in Giro del Trentino, but there's a big difference between a short stage race and a grand tour - where Sky has proven repeatedly that they are strong.
Matt Finemore
Roar Rookie
How good was Santambrogio at Trentino and Tirreno Adriatico. Too many TT kms in the race for him to be any threat overall I would have thought. Hopefully he will light it up in the mountains though.
Jared
Guest
To be honest, I don't think Hesjedal has a chance this year, he'll be too heavily marked. There is a case to be made that he was allowed to go when he attacked in the mountains (can't remember which stage) last year because at the time he wasn't considered a threat to the GC. He won't be allowed to do the same this year. After a disappointing classics, I think we'll see the sky train out in full powermeter-watching force.
Justin Curran
Roar Rookie
Cadel's form all year (except Oman) has been underwhelming. The way he is struggling to follow wheels, it reminds me a lot of the way he rode last year. He claims he is over this virus but continues to ride like he is suffering from one. However, I fell into the trap of writing off a champion on these pages once already this year (apologies Spartacus), and I am going to show more respect to Cadel. Let's hope he can re capture his 2011 form But overall I would have to go with Nibali as my prediction. He has the best form, and I think the mountain top finishes and time bonuses for stage victories might just tip the odds in his favour. Tough assignment to beat the Sky train though.
Martin
Guest
Hmm I have not underwritten Evans yet. I think he still has a capability to come back to his best. It doesnt matter that he is 36 years old. I believe that Giro will help him to reach a good performance and that later in TDF he will be fighting for a podium! And he will certainly not give up so easy that he should be "only" supported rider for Teejay. Btw Young American states that he’ll ride for his Australian team-mate in mountains. I am from Slovakia, but I am really big fan of Cadel. I admire true Champions! And there is no doubt that he is one of them !
nickoldschool
Roar Guru
brilliant.
Tim Renowden
Expert
Be interesting to see if De Gendt or Santambrogio can do anything, too. I'm planning to have a look at some of the more left-field chances next week.
nickoldschool
Roar Guru
Thanks for that Tim! Yes I agree, a stage win and/or top 10-15 is probably what Betancur should aim at. Dunno whats his team strategy but they may even withdraw him after a week or two if they decide to have him on the tour which makes sense for a french team. He is still my bolter though! I think the Giro suits outsiders more than Le Tour as we have seen with Hesjedal last year or even Gadret in 2011 so we never know. I have Nibali as favourite btw.
George White
Roar Rookie
Agreed, dont think he will adjust easily. But that may be the role he is allocated, BMC roster management has been suspect in my opinion since Cadel won the TDF. They are paying way to much money for underperformance. Thor hasnt won a chook raffle since joining the team. And they took an unbalanced team to the TDF last year.
Tim Renowden
Expert
Hi Nick, I think this Giro looks reasonably balanced - it has both lots of time trialling and also lots of epic mountain stages with 6 summit finishes. So I don't know if it's a big advantage to Wiggins. Also the climbs in the Giro are often at a different gradient than in the Tour, which I don't think suits Wiggins as much. But he does have the best team, and he is a proven GT winner, so I would still have him in my top 3. I was super impressed by Betancur in the Ardennes classics - his attack on the Mur de Huy in Fleche Wallonne was really audacious (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7LWXBtQeK8 ) but he just went a touch too early to stay away. He actually may have cost Gilbert the race by forcing him to follow. He was excellent at LBL as well. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he grabbed a stage at the Giro but I think at 23 he's probably a year or two short of being a GC threat over a full grand tour.
nickoldschool
Roar Guru
I love the one to three week- tours which take place in old Europe, there is something romantic about them. Am with you regarding Wiggins Tim, he doesn't look as dominant as he was last year. But it seems this Giro will favor good time trialists over pure climbers so he should be in contention. As an aside, what do you think of the young Columbian from AG2r Carlos Betancur? He has been in pretty good shape in the last few weeks, seems like a puncher type of rider who can do ok at time trials? Plus being a Columbian he should be a decent climber too?
Tim Renowden
Expert
Yes! Garmin really looks to be enjoying themselves together and riding as a team, which is a great advantage. I reckon they continue to get stronger every year. Evans as a support rider... we'll see how he gets through the Giro, no doubt, but it's hard to see him enjoying that role.
George White
Roar Rookie
Hesjedal and Garmin are going into the Giro with a spring in their step. The work Ryder did for Martin at LBL will be paid back in spades by the team at the Giro. I hope Evans come sback to form, final stage in Giro de Trentino was encouraging but whether he can still mix it with the other contenders is worrying me. Personally think that if Evans doesnt end up a GC contender at the TDF he can still be a huge support to Tejay.