It’s becoming increasingly easy to pick winners in this year’s AFL. Most footy tipping competitions are brimming with participants who are regularly tipping seven or eight winners per round.
A quick look at the ladder though shows the season isn’t all that lopsided. Only two teams remain undefeated (and that will be reduced to one by the end of this weekend) and only one team remains without a win.
Then there is the usual logjam for places within the lower reaches of the top eight.
There have been some magnificent games of close, hard-fought football, including some memorable comebacks such as Essendon’s gutsy victory over Fremantle in Perth and Port Adelaide’s rise-from-the-dead performance against West Coast.
But it seems there hasn’t been too many curve balls to throw the punters off track.
Apart from Brisbane attempting to con us during the pre-season competition, West Coast’s sluggish start and Essendon failing to buckle under off-field pressures, the rest of the season seems to have been pretty much predictable.
Let’s face it, even Richmond are sitting in ninth spot.
With just over a quarter of the season gone, the top five teams will probably only see one change before the season’s end.
Essendon, Geelong, Sydney and Hawthorn should be able to hold form and secure double chance final spots, with only Port Adelaide set to slide out of contention.
Port have started the season well, but for the most part, their opposition has been sub-par. That’s not Port’s fault, but wins against Melbourne, GWS and Gold Coast make up three of their five victories.
Stirring wins against the West Coast Eagles and cross town rivals Adelaide show they are heading in the right direction, but sustained success for the Power is still a couple of seasons off.
With the top four seemingly decided, you would expect Fremantle, Collingwood and Carlton to claim three of the remaining spots, leaving eighth position to be battled out between Port Adelaide, Richmond, West Coast, North Melbourne and Adelaide.
This leaves six teams already out of contention for a finals spot.
Gold Coast, despite a couple of early wins (one of which was against GWS), will fail to make further inroads. They may end up with their best win/loss ratio to date (they have Melbourne this week), but their impressive first round victory against St Kilda will remain the highlight of their season.
Brisbane have struggled since the real stuff started and St Kilda appear to be on that cyclical slide that all clubs bar Sydney and Geelong seem to experience.
The less said about the Western Bulldogs, Melbourne and GWS the better.
While GWS made everyone sit up and take notice last week, those waxing lyrical about the emergence of the boys from Blacktown need to take a breath.
Yes they took on and embarrassed an arrogant Essendon side, which thought it just need turn up to win, but after the Giants kicked the first goal of the third quarter to stretch their lead to 28 points, the real story of the match emerged.
In just under half a game of football, a scratchy Essendon kicked 14 goals to four; a 67 point turn around in less than an hour’s play.
Jeremy Cameron played a blinder for the Giants, but they are as far from on-field success as they have ever been.
While upsets may have been few and far between this year, the onset of injury and fatigue as the season wears on should ensure that it becomes harder to tip a winner, but only marginally.
Tipping against Melbourne, GWS, Gold Coast and the Western Bulldogs and not tipping against Essendon, Geelong, Hawthorn or Sydney (when fixturing allows) should see the punter pick up easy points more often than not.
The hardest round yet from a tipster’s point of view seems to be coming this weekend with five games that look evenly balanced.
The top of the ladder clash between Geelong and Essendon should be a classic, while Port Adelaide v Richmond, Hawthorn v Sydney, Fremantle v Collingwood and Melbourne v Gold Coast will be hard to predict, toss-of-a-coin games.
Of the other matches, West Coast should defeat Brisbane, North Melbourne should beat the Bulldogs, Adelaide should get over the Giants and Carlton should continue to gain form against the Saints, although this is the game that is most likely to result in an upset.
If a competition’s health is decided by its unpredictability, this season is only just lurching along.
Here’s hoping over the coming weeks we see a few more upsets and the race for finals positions doesn’t completely peter out mid-season.
Jax
Guest
Spot on Bogga
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
The games have been predictable, but I think this round throws up a classic set of matches. The last few rounds have been predictable because it has been good teams versus poor teams. This week I will be suprised if a lot of people pick 9 as this week could throw anything at us.
Bill C
Guest
The last round was the most predictable one that I can ever recall, anyone who didn't get either an 8 or 9 should give up on tipping. This round is a different story though, there will be some really good games to look forward to.
Bogga
Guest
Predictable as opposed to what? European football where titles are shared between 2-3 teams per country and have been for the last 10 years straight? Or compared to the NRL where, as previously pointed out, last years top teams are this years' top teams? Or an Australia v New Zealand test series over the past 20 years? This predictability is the same at the very top level of any sport. The only unpredictable sport in Oz are the domestic cricket and the A-League. But this is mainly because they're not top-level sport. Therefore players can be brought in from above to boost fortunes in a season. To build a good club at the top level of a sport requires development from below which is a much slower process. I think you'll be eating your words by the end of the season anyway. This time last year Essendon and Carlton were battling it out for premiership favouritism. Neither even made the finals. How you've elevated Carlton to finals favourites above West Coast is completely beyond me. It's way too early for those kinds of assumptions.
Ash Lemson
Roar Rookie
I wouldn't be too sure on Essendon mate, Freo and Collingwood are biting at there heels, would think that both Collingwood and Freo and maybe West Coast and Richmond are still a real shot at top 4 don't count your chickens to early
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Watching Reynolds pinning a defence's ears back to the try line is always entertaining.
Dan
Guest
Because you're a poor tipper. Don't blame anyone else for that.
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Reckon we had a fairer claim to have been diddled by a goal umpire in that game than Richmond did against Fremantle ;)
Shmick
Guest
Seriously? We've had six rounds and I've already scored two 3's and a 4. Sure, I got 9 in round 6, but most rounds aren't like that.
Hawker
Guest
Brogan, Fraser and Hille are broken down and useless to anyone
Cameron
Roar Guru
I'll leave it to those more educated than myself to write such articles but I know a fair bit about the AFL Monopoly Man. Used to follow religiously from 2000 - 2006. Just have found my home with football but each to their own.
Matt F
Roar Guru
Every competition, no matter the sport, has some degree of predictability about it. For example, in the NRL, 3 of last years top 4 are currently in this years top 4, and the other one is improving after they were ravaged by injuries at the start of the season. Every competition has good teams and bad teams and most of the time they are able to be predicted before the season starts, though obviously there are the odd exceptions that rise, or fall, and shock everyone when doing so (eg West Coast in 2011.) Obviously the two new expansion teams have skewed the gap between the best and worst sides over the last few years (not to mention the basket case that is Melbourne) but I think that gap will close over the next few seasons as the expansion sides mature and the draft goes back to normal which will give the other sides earlier access to the available talent. As far as the premiership race goes though, I think this year (\and last year have been much more open than in probably the previous 5 or so seasons. There can be an argument for the premiership credentials for up to 5-6 teams but from around the period of 2007-11 you could probably only make a legitimate argument for 1-3 teams.
Mango Jack
Guest
Not always, moonshine. RL teams with a clever last tackle kicker will regain posession over and over again by landing it in goal and tackling the defender. Blokes like Smith and Reynolds can do it all day.
Monopoly Man
Roar Rookie
Been getting into the AFL Kellett? Good to see mate.
Jack
Guest
Saints is a banana skin game for blues have had the wood over blues for years
Moonshine
Guest
All the more reason to shorten the game to get it into 2.5 hours for TV and less blowouts - weaker teams seem to struggle in the last 5 minutes of a quarter. NRL is more unpredictable as it is a your ball then the others ball game which to me is less interesting but better for the bookies!!!
Winston
Guest
If you add Buddy, David Hille, Brogan, Josh Fraser and a good key defender to the team, that's a totally different team!!! Why not add in Ablett, Cotchin and Marc Murphy too?
Cameron
Roar Guru
Despite Voss being a great player it never meant he would be a great coach. I think it's time he moves on. Perhaps he could ply his trade and become an assistant elsewhere.
Jimbo
Guest
I feel it could be a another nail in porr old Voss's coffin. After their pre-season, they have not put up much fight.
Cameron
Roar Guru
They key word - "may" I don't wish this upon them but you can't help but think how long they'll keep this going.