Nobody at Collingwood will be panicking yet but increasingly there are signs that the Pies will be an afterthought come September.
After seven rounds they have four wins but it is the manner of the losses and a percentage of just 95.1 percent, ranked 13th in the league, which should be of greatest concern.
Collingwood began the season with solid wins over North Melbourne (16 points) and Carlton (17 points) but even at that stage there were some concerns. They fell behind early in both games only to come back and get over the line.
Like many formerly great teams they can play great passages or quarters of football but they cannot string together four consistent quarters of great football. Collingwood have only won 11 of their 28 quarters this season.
By comparison, Essendon has won 19 quarters and the lowly Suns have won 13 quarters.
In Round 3, Hawthorn defeated them by 55 points. Collingwood were competitive until half-time but could not sustain it for the rest of the match. It was a familiar story for the Pies, who could not contain the Hawks in their three clashes last season.
The Pies’ best performance this season came in Round 4 when they defeated a confident Tigers outfit by 34 points.
But again the Pies were reliant on one big quarter to get the victory, this time an eight goal third quarter, after being behind by three points at half-time.
On ANZAC Day, the Pies lost to the Bombers for the first time in eight meetings. Consistent with the Hawks loss, the Pies were competitive in the first half before capitulating badly in the second.
A solid win against St Kilda in Round 6 was followed by a disappointing defeat to an undermanned Fremantle team, who were missing Sandilands, Pavlich and Fyfe.
Collingwood are still getting high quality production from their best players.
Pendlebury and Swan are providing drive through the midfield, Cloke is back to his best, while Heath Shaw and Steele Sidebottom are playing very good football.
However, injuries have no doubt had some effect on the Pies this season. Midfielder Dayne Beams has yet to play, while ruckman Darren Jolly and Ben Hudson have been unable to string games together.
In addition, leadership may be lacking with captain Nick Maxwell missing between rounds three and six and Luke Ball yet to play a game.
Offensively Collingwood is no less effective than they were in 2012, although they are a long way from where they were in 2010 and 2011. They are averaging 96.3 points per game this year compared with 96.5 points last season.
Defensively it is a different story. In 2011 and 2012, Collingwood were one of the league’s best defensive outfits, allowing just 70 and 83 points per game respectively.
In 2013 the Pies are conceding 101 points per game, despite giving up the same number of inside 50s as last season.
Their forward pressure, which decimated the Cats in the 2010 preliminary final and resulted in 20 wins in 2011, is now a long distance memory.
Teams are finding it far too easy against the Pies to move the ball from their backline to their forward line.
It is putting the Pies’ defenders under additional pressure. Even the best defenders will look poor if there is no pressure in the midfield.
Collingwood is playing the type of football normally associated with a formerly great team who, because of age or injuries, is no longer fit enough to play great football consistently.
It may be enough to beat some of the weaker sides but they will be found out against the top sides, and they have.
The Pies face another huge challenge on Saturday night. An undefeated Geelong outfit will be keen to make amends after two big defeats at the hands of the Pies in 2012.
A good quarter or a half will not cut it against the Cats or the Swans, who the Pies host in Round 9.
Unless the Pies improve significantly on their recent performances against top teams they will be outside the eight after nine rounds with a percentage south of 90 percent.
Collingwood should improve as some key players return from injury. But with teams such as GWS, Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs unlikely to win more than a handful of games between them it will take at least 13 wins to make the finals this season.
If Collingwood lose their next two there is a very real possibility that they could miss the finals for the first time since 2005.
geoff
Guest
A lot would have to go wrong for the pies to miss the finals. I expect them to battle for fourth with freo and sydney. The pies dont drop games against rubbish teams.
Maximus
Guest
An interesting post, although perhaps a little overly aggressive in predicting the complete demise of Collingwood. It's difficult to believe that a side with 3 of the top 10 players in the league, all uninjured and in-form, would miss out on the 8. It would be a savage indictment on both the coach and 30+ players vying for a place in the squad. Collingwood, like Hawthorn, has had a much tougher draw than most teams, including Sydney and Adelaide, to date which will be rectified over the course of the season. It has been competitive in patches in all games, regardless of opposition - yet being competitive won't cut it to make the 8. What is assumed to improve is the focus and intensity of the squad in attacking the game, being hungry for success and playing the game from start to finish. Injuries aside, this would play the biggest factor in the Pies fortunes - as it's easy to see in both Geelong and Essendon how much they will themselves into every competition and want to win every game. They, like Hawthorn, play for the coach. If the players refuse to have this intensity, this can only be put back onto the coach, as the players, as a whole, have far more recent success credentials than the coach. While his first year as coach was decent, Buckley cannot blame injuries forever, and should feel significant heat from the Collingwood brass should the team indeed prove itself suddenly incapable of matching it with prospective top four teams. I believe that the next two weeks will determine Buckley's coaching tenure, as no amount of returning players, even those the caliber of Luke Ball and Dayne Beams, will change the fortunes of a team mired with an attitude of "near enough is good enough".
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
Collingwood will be right on track once they get Luke Ball back, they always seem to click at the right part of the season.
Balthazar
Guest
Agreed. Jimbo obviously didn't see the free flowing footy from Freo in the first quarter. When they lost their ruckman and had to rely on a third gamer, they were up against it. All credit to them, I say Any team that boasts players like Fyfe, Hill, Walters, McPharlin and Mundy will play attractive football but I guess people take comfort in their stereotypes
Bogga
Guest
Why do people think that because they already have injuries means they won't get more? Probability wise, they're just as likely, if not more likely to get more injuries than other teams they're still left to play. (on the basis that injured players are more prone to re-injury). There are all sorts of factors, but the probability of injury is about the same for a team which already has injuries as it is for a team without injuries. Luck, fairness (natural) and Karma are all figments of the imagination. Collingwood has injuries now but they might have more later in the season. The fact is that they're played progressively worse, regardless of injuries, since the 2011 Grand Final. The only explanatory factor seems to be the coach. If they haven't turned it around by the end of the year, Bucks will have to go and Eddie will have to mea culpa (I'll let you all consider the likelihood of that).
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Geelong is beautiful but when Fremantle are rolling they play very good attacking football, just with incredible defensive steel to back it up. Rather more fluid than the Saints were. HOWEVER, when you are short as many first-line players as the purple mob were, well, you play with whatever style is going to get you the best shot at a result on a given week and the devil take the consequences.
Jimbo
Guest
I am basing it on St Kilda, and i think sides like Geelong or Hawthorn would/will carve them up with their precise kicking skills. I think it works against less skilled teams. And a defensive gameplan and mindset when in front is not a good strategy.
Tim Holt
Roar Guru
Predictors are only useful if you can read the future in regards to injuries/suspension and the like. And the Pies might be struggling now, but they will make it on their class and the mediocrity of others. Plus, rest assured the AFL will not allow the Pies to miss the Finals on gate receipts alone....... If i was betting this would be my 8- Cats, Hawks, Bloods, Freo, WCE, Blues, Pies, North
langou
Roar Guru
If you are basing it on St Kilda then you would have to say that it is possible to win a flag with this game plan. Unless you think that the game plan is good enough to draw a grand final but not good enough to win.
Jimbo
Guest
And just for interest sake, at junior level they are not allowed to play flooding football, which is also called unsociable football. ( and quite rightly IMO) They have to hold their position in junior football. Not even under 14/15 WAFL development squads are allowed to play this type of football.
Jimbo
Guest
freo won, but they won ugly, and can they actually win a premiership with this game plan, that involves incredible fitness, and then very ugly defending in their back half. St Kilda never won a flag with this ugly defensive scrap, and my bet is Freo won't either. Give me Geelong any day, even Essendon play a much more attractive attacking style.
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Injuries wouldn't have served as much of an excuse against a team almost without name-brand stars. I think in this case it might have been the old sea dog Lyon having tricks young Pup Buckley couldn't counter. Fremantle have been pretty good in the clutches lately as well, as seen against Richmond. It took an almighty effort from Essendon (arguably running on the adrenaline and emotional charge of their ASADA controversy) to get up and they still only won that game by virtue of Chris Mayne skidding a ball in off the post from twenty out right in front. Not the sort of thing you can rely on.
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Very valid. That's what makes that particular loss so dreadful for Collingwood. Fremantle was in an even worse state than themselves. And to get all the momentum and then get destroyed by a combination of astute coaching changes and spent petrol tickets would have been a psychological body-blow. They were favourites to win even before Griffen went down. If you had told people before the game that Griffen would do an ACL in the first ten minutes of the game, would anyone, anywhere, have still tipped Fremantle?
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Yeah, even though the Eagles eventually got a greater portion of their injured players back at the tail end of last year, they were never able to get back to proper match grade. It was too late, in the end.
Callam P
Roar Pro
In an ideal world you'd hope to have 90 per cent of your best 22 on the field. Usually a stretch to have a full side, particularly as the season wears on. The big concern for the Pies is that their problem seems to be defensively and most of their inclusions won't help with that.
Callam P
Roar Pro
Well said.
Hawker
Guest
How often does any team have their best side on the park though? Fair enough Ball and Beams will help, but people are kidding themselves if they think the likes of Johnson, Fasolo (wasn't he dropped??), Didak, Young, Goldsack are going to make that much difference. Geelong will likely have chappy and corey back this week
Callam P
Roar Pro
Good post. I was always surprised that they changed things so much in 2012 given their game play was enough to beat all but Geelong in 2011.
Callam P
Roar Pro
While they do play some weaker teams, the also play Sydney (H), Port (A), Carlton and Adelaide (H). I don't think Collingwood is playing the type of football where you can just assume they will beat the likes of Port, Carlton and Adelaide.
John Howard
Guest
+1