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Nobody at Collingwood will be panicking yet but increasingly there are signs that the Pies will be an afterthought come September.
After seven rounds they have four wins but it is the manner of the losses and a percentage of just 95.1 percent, ranked 13th in the league, which should be of greatest concern.
Collingwood began the season with solid wins over North Melbourne (16 points) and Carlton (17 points) but even at that stage there were some concerns. They fell behind early in both games only to come back and get over the line.
Like many formerly great teams they can play great passages or quarters of football but they cannot string together four consistent quarters of great football. Collingwood have only won 11 of their 28 quarters this season.
By comparison, Essendon has won 19 quarters and the lowly Suns have won 13 quarters.
In Round 3, Hawthorn defeated them by 55 points. Collingwood were competitive until half-time but could not sustain it for the rest of the match. It was a familiar story for the Pies, who could not contain the Hawks in their three clashes last season.
The Pies’ best performance this season came in Round 4 when they defeated a confident Tigers outfit by 34 points.
But again the Pies were reliant on one big quarter to get the victory, this time an eight goal third quarter, after being behind by three points at half-time.
On ANZAC Day, the Pies lost to the Bombers for the first time in eight meetings. Consistent with the Hawks loss, the Pies were competitive in the first half before capitulating badly in the second.
A solid win against St Kilda in Round 6 was followed by a disappointing defeat to an undermanned Fremantle team, who were missing Sandilands, Pavlich and Fyfe.
Collingwood are still getting high quality production from their best players.
Pendlebury and Swan are providing drive through the midfield, Cloke is back to his best, while Heath Shaw and Steele Sidebottom are playing very good football.
However, injuries have no doubt had some effect on the Pies this season. Midfielder Dayne Beams has yet to play, while ruckman Darren Jolly and Ben Hudson have been unable to string games together.
In addition, leadership may be lacking with captain Nick Maxwell missing between rounds three and six and Luke Ball yet to play a game.
Offensively Collingwood is no less effective than they were in 2012, although they are a long way from where they were in 2010 and 2011. They are averaging 96.3 points per game this year compared with 96.5 points last season.
Defensively it is a different story. In 2011 and 2012, Collingwood were one of the league’s best defensive outfits, allowing just 70 and 83 points per game respectively.
In 2013 the Pies are conceding 101 points per game, despite giving up the same number of inside 50s as last season.
Their forward pressure, which decimated the Cats in the 2010 preliminary final and resulted in 20 wins in 2011, is now a long distance memory.
Teams are finding it far too easy against the Pies to move the ball from their backline to their forward line.
It is putting the Pies’ defenders under additional pressure. Even the best defenders will look poor if there is no pressure in the midfield.
Collingwood is playing the type of football normally associated with a formerly great team who, because of age or injuries, is no longer fit enough to play great football consistently.
It may be enough to beat some of the weaker sides but they will be found out against the top sides, and they have.
The Pies face another huge challenge on Saturday night. An undefeated Geelong outfit will be keen to make amends after two big defeats at the hands of the Pies in 2012.
A good quarter or a half will not cut it against the Cats or the Swans, who the Pies host in Round 9.
Unless the Pies improve significantly on their recent performances against top teams they will be outside the eight after nine rounds with a percentage south of 90 percent.
Collingwood should improve as some key players return from injury. But with teams such as GWS, Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs unlikely to win more than a handful of games between them it will take at least 13 wins to make the finals this season.
If Collingwood lose their next two there is a very real possibility that they could miss the finals for the first time since 2005.
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