How many hours have I wasted … I mean spent productively on the AFL ladder predictor over the years? Mostly I admit in trying to devise a way that Fremantle could possibly make the finals.
Well I’m at it again and with the confidence gained from an average of seven from nine in my tipping this year I’ve decided to see which teams outside of the eight can make it and which teams currently in the eight will drop out.
I have a method to my madness. If the teams are close then I will go with the home side, especially if the visitor is coming from out of state.
Case in point this weekend. There will be close match-ups between Adelaide (H) and Freo, Sydney (H) and Essendon, Pies and Lions (H), Bulldogs (H) and Port (sorry Port you are not that far above the bottom six as a lot of people may think), and Eagles (H) and Tigers.
For all their yo-yoing this year I would expect the Pies to account for the Lions. For the rest I am tipping the home side.
For games where there is a clear difference (say three wins on the ladder) I will tip the higher-ranked team. When it is two teams from the same state and they are close on the ladder I have gone with my gut instinct.
So in the remaining rounds I have picked Essendon to beat Carlton, Cats to beat Hawks, and Freo to beat West Coast (based on Fremantle having won nine of the past 12, and the last two by an average of seven goals, West Coast fans!).
So here’s my final eight:
Geelong – 21 wins
Hawthorn – 19 wins
Essendon – 17 wins
Sydney – 16.5 wins
Fremantle – 15.5 wins
Carlton – 14 wins
Collingwood – 14 wins
Adelaide – 13 wins
Of the current eight I am swapping West Coast (out) for Collingwood (in).
I have West Coast and Richmond missing by a game on 12 wins each, with the Lions a further game behind. For both West Coast and Richmond to finish on 12 that means they will get only seven wins from their final 12 games. So which are their possible five losses?
For West Coast I have selected the following as losses; Geelong (Patersons), Freo (Patersons), Hawthorn (Etihad), Adelaide (AAMI), Collingwood (MCG).
West Coast have a tougher second half of the season than the first and need more than just Nic Naitanui to drag them across the line, especially as the final 12 rounds only sees them play three teams that are ‘out of contention’ in Gold Coast, St Kilda and the Doggies.
The Tigers have some pretty tough assignments to come against West Coast (Patersons), Norths (Etihad), Freo (Etihad), Sydney (SCG), Adelaide (MCG), Hawthorn (MCG), Carlton (MCG) and Essendon (MCG).
Of those I picked them to beat Freo, Adelaide and Carlton. The other games should cost them their finals chances.
Of course any of those results reversed could see West Coast or Richmond making the final eight. The West Coast v Adelaide/Collingwood/Richmond match-ups and Richmond v Adelaide/Carlton/North could be the games that decide the make-up of the 8 in 2013.
And of course North could be the big spoilers if they can turn their narrow losses into wins. But that would mean 10 wins from their final 12 matches to get to the magical 13 I think will be required.
It should be a cracker of a final 12 rounds.
And yes, I am a biased Freo supporter.
Harry
Guest
Well port made finals anyway
John Fedec
Guest
The DOCKERS have the flag in the bag !!
Livster
Guest
Wow you know close to nothing about football! Stick to kerate more your forte. You say things with such certainty yet your logic is dubious at best. You still think the dockers will only win another 2 game? Tigers have thrown a spanner in the works. Hawks have some tough games coming up. The top 6 positions could change dramatically. Dockers have the easiest run in along with the cats, everything else is up for grabs.
Steven Johnston
Guest
Seeing as the play the Saints twice that should give them 7 more wins for 13.5 which will mean finals. Add to that wins against WC and Norths gives the predicted 15.5 and 5th place. If they can beat the blues, tigers and crows today they will be top 4. Can't see them missing finals given the last 13 rounds ahead.
Bruce Lee
Guest
As it stands now their only 1 and a half games ahead of position 11
Bruce Lee
Guest
Fremantle will only win another 6 games max stk bri ade gws mel por 46 - 50 points could poss miss the 8 its that sort of year esp with 23 rounds
doubledutch
Roar Pro
Look at the Cats draw for the second half of the season. Most of their games are at home and the only really tough game is against Hawthorne, who they clearly have the wood on. Don't be surprised of the cats do with 21, but I think they will probably drop another 2 games coming in at 19 mins and finishing second. They will throttle down and rest players, just like they did in 2011 to win the flag.
Strummer Jones
Guest
Saw Richmond at the G last weekend. Seriously, they are rubbish. What a disappointment as I was actually hoping they might make the 8 this year (I like a 'share the love' policy in AFL). Unless there are fundamental changes in the team I cannot see them making it this year.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Essendon will surely lose all their points. However, if for some reason they manage to wriggle out of it, I think Sydney will beat them to third spot. Still reckon North ( and you think you are biased Steven J ) can barrel there way in there. I am predicting a lot more unpredictability. Geel and Haw W L looks a bit unlikely.
Nathan of Perth
Guest
The numbers 17 and 42 will haunt my dreams for the rest of the year.
Jax
Guest
WC lost to Port & Blues because they couldn't kick straight, they dominated both games but kicked 17.42 - they should be sitting on 28 points and in the Top 4 right now BUT they didn't win and no doubt that may cost them and they now have to play catch-up but purely on form (excl goal kicking) WC are in the Top 4. Super tough to make top 4 from here but they will make the top 8 (barring more major injuries), they are too good a team not to make it.
Steven Johnston
Guest
Worsfold has come out aiming at the top 4 recently (which he would have to say if asked). Which to me says they can only drop 2 games out of the remaining 13. If they do that then sure they will be hot premiership favourites. But seeing as they have so many games against top 8 teams and their form away from home is not great (see Port Adelaide loss), I can't see that happening ... but funnier things have happened in the AFL.
Steven Johnston
Guest
Correction to the main article. There are 13 rounds left, which means WC and Richmond need 8 from their final 13 games (not 7 from 12 - I am mathematically challenged) - they can still only afford to drop 5 games each to get the 13 wins. The rest remains the same. Thanks for your understanding :)
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Eagles have form for getting out of these kinds of starts though; the '92 Premiership was won on the back of a 2-1-3 start to the year, with the losses and draw coming to the eventual runner up, two teams that finished dead last and second last, and the team that finished 10th. Came in at 4th and triumphed over all in the end.
Steven Johnston
Guest
2014 fixturing!
Steven Johnston
Guest
Can't see that happening though. Would be surprised if anything solid came out until October, that way the AFL has 6/7 months to prepare their 2013 fixturing.
Steven Johnston
Guest
In 2012 it took 14 wins to make the 8. This year as the comp gets closer (Gold Coast improving and ruffling a few feathers) I have predicted 13. Given, as I said WC have only 3 "easy" games remaining and that they have struggled to date I cannot see them getting the 7 or 8 wins required. Freo are lucky with an easier final 12 rounds with 6 games against teams not likely to make the 8.
Jack
Guest
It's a very close year... If essendon get docked points then that will open the field right up
Jax
Guest
WC has more chance of making the eight than the Pies, Blues and Crows. Bombers looked like contenders till Round 11 last year and ended up missing the eight. You're getting ahead of yourself, and Cats on 21 wins? Dockers fans have never had success but yes they are on their way up finally but you're getting ahead of yourself early