Fourteen teams can use the remainder of the AFL season to start warming up for 2014. The top four spots on the ladder have been locked up, and history tells us it’s all but impossible to win the premiership from anywhere else.
Sydney’s supreme effort in dismantling a willing Essendon, and Fremantle’s grinding away win over Adelaide, have ensured they’ll both be getting the double chance.
Hawthorn did what we knew they would against Melbourne, and Geelong were ultimately too good for a tough, honest Gold Coast Suns.
All four are a legitimate premiership threat this year, to the exclusion of all others.
The reigning premiers, the Swans, were afforded the luxury of a soft opening to the season against the expansion teams, and spluttered their way to a 6-2-1 record after eight rounds.
They mixed some breathtaking brilliance, highlighted by an eleven goal quarter against North Melbourne, with some poor play against strong opposition, being comprehensively outplayed at times against Geelong, Hawthorn and Fremantle.
But Sydney’s last two wins, against Collingwood and Essendon, have been the equal of anything we saw from them in 2012. Their depth through the midfield is unequalled, and each of them know how to sniff out a goal.
The Swans had thirteen individual goalkickers against the Dons, almost all of whom do most of their work through the middle of the ground.
Their forward line may not be functioning as smoothly as they’d like, but the imminent arrival of Kurt Tippett should help their structure in this regard. The Swans defence is still the envy of all, even in the absence of important cogs like Alex Johnson and Lewis Roberts-Thomson, working just as smoothly in the air as on the ground.
Sydney will win a minimum of nine matches from this point on, and with their last two games of the regular season to be against Geelong and Hawthorn, they’ll be hitting the finals well-conditioned and finals-ready.
The common expression is “defence wins premierships”, and when we think of defence, we think of the sides under Ross Lyon’s command.
Fremantle haven’t lost since round four, when the Hawks dismantled them down in Tasmania. Their feats have been all the more meritorious when we consider they’ve been missing the likes of Matthew Pavlich and Aaron Sandilands for most of the season, and Stephen Hill, Michael Walters and Nat Fyfe have also been absent for important matches.
Of course, Lyon relies on twenty-two ‘soldiers’ more than any other. He’s all about defensive system, fanatical pressure, and the oft-quoted process. Everyone knows their role, and if you don’t fulfil it to the coach’s requirements, you simply won’t play.
The Fremantle defensive press is a fearsome sight for the opposition to behold when up and running, and while it can be an exhausting system to implement, it’s even more tiring for the opposition to penetrate.
The Dockers will only likely start as the outsider in one or two matches for the rest of the season, and will be eyeing off a top two position. Underestimate them at your peril.
Geelong’s ability to continually produce quality AFL footballers makes everyone who doesn’t barrack for them sick.
Allen Christensen, Mitch Duncan and Stephen Motlop already have premiership medallions, but continue to establish themselves as the next generation of superstar down at Kardinia Park.
The support cast has got some talent too, let alone the established, experienced guns we all know so well.
The Cats are 9-1, and the match they lost was by only six points after being a couple of goals up halfway through the last. Chris Scott now has the luxury of rotating his players through a soft draw in the second half of the year, as he expertly did in the lead-up to the 2011 premiership.
Geelong are the best in the business at playing burst football, and really, have done so since 2008.
There is still no better sight in AFL football than a Geelong side in full flight, using quick hands and precise kicking through the middle of the ground, streaming from half-back in waves through any number of running players. When the blitzkrieg is on, it’s a mighty force, all but unstoppable, and we’ll be seeing them with the double chance come September.
Hawthorn have been the most impressive of all this year, but have almost flown under the radar in peeling off nine consecutive wins since their round one loss to Geelong.
Much has been made of Buddy Franklin’s inconsistent form while his contract talks have been put on hold until after the season, but the Hawks have still been the heaviest scoring team in 2013. They rank third in defence as well, a potent historical combination when it comes to achieving premiership success.
Sam Mitchell has continued the form that has made him the most reliably consistent midfielder of the last decade, while Shaun Burgoyne is having his best season since crossing form Port Adelaide, most importantly hitting the scoreboard regularly to go with his quality ball use.
What has been most pleasing for all football fans is the return of Luke Hodge to his penetrating best. Too long have we been denied his talents on a consistent basis through injury troubles, almost to the point where we think of his courage and leadership, but little else.
Hawthorn will welcome back Cyril Rioli in the second half of the season too, which will only make them more dangerous.
Of course, the Hawks have some mental demons to conquer, not least of which is the ‘Kennett Curse’ against Geelong. Even if they can offload that monkey, which has really become a troop of gorilla’s, the ‘chokers’ label still looms large come finals time.
Essendon, Carlton, Collingwood and West Coast form the next tier down, and currently hold the whip hand for the rest of the final eight spots, but none of these sides have shown nearly enough to suggest they can challenge for a top four position.
So keep your eyes on the Hawks, Cats, Swans and Dockers in the second half of the year when trying to work out who you think will win the flag. The rest of the competition can only dream.
Jamie Papa
Guest
As a genuine lover of sport I know it is not only difficult to pick a weekend winner due to the many variables that can occur in a teams weekly preparation but, to pick a top 4 after 10Rds of the competition, your effort is simply meritorious, well done!! I'm tipping Fremantle only on the proviso that 4 out of the last 5 Grand Finals winners have come from the second major semi final. Hat off to you Cameron well tipped.
Alex
Guest
Brendan, that's pretty much the McIntyre System that you described right there. AFL and NRL tried it, didn't work due to the risk of some 1st week games being rendered meaningless.
darcytrainor
Roar Rookie
Writing off the Pies with their run home at the MCG and Beams to return seems brave, but in reality they are way off. You never know though. Maybe even the Eagles could get it together after the Bye. Fantastic list and if they click could take games off the big sides. History has to be broken though as you say.
Deep Thinker
Guest
Your right Huddo, but the key words there are 'current form'.
Deep Thinker
Guest
Cam - I think it is a lot closer than you realise. Take last season for example. Geelong never really got going until the last 5 weeks. They had 7 losses and were 6th. Hawthorn had 5 losses and were 1st. Hawthorn were the best side last year, but there were 2 games difference between 1st and 6th. Hawthorn could easily have slipped out of the top 4. Not much difference - and an upset would not have surprised me. As it turned out, that didn't eventuate. But that doesn't mean it wasn't a realistic outcome. I suspect West Coast and Collingwood are the dark horses this year. Not because of what they've done so far this year (their form has been horrible) - but because of what they can do. If they find their A game come September, things could get very interesting.
beny iniesta
Guest
After 10 rounds, the Top 4 has not been the same at the end of the year since 2002, so I would hardly call it usual for the Top 4 to be set by now! Check the stats!
Jacques of Lilydale
Guest
Not pre-empting anything here but the Hawthorn set up looks as if they're looking to next year with life without Buddy. The Bud of 2013 isn't the Buddy of 2008, far from it. Hawthorn's structure actually has them scoring more heavily when he isn't playing! Go figure. A perfect storm would be Kennett's curse laid to rest in the 2013 GF. Long way to go here but it can happen that the cats play the hawks on the last saturday in september, what a salivating prospect that would be.
Jack
Guest
Confirm at least two of the teas in the top 4. Even if the catastrophic happens, two of the teams in the top 4 will be there at the end of the year.Could Freo do well without McPharlin? Only if Sandilands and Pav are back first. The Swans and Freo are the two that can drop out. The last few games this season matter for the Swans - they could lose both and a team gets the jump on them, and Freo haven't been as convincing yet. But, both are getting their form..
Brendan
Guest
Roger first versus eigth , second versus third, fourth versus fifth and sixth versus seventh in the first week of the finals.The two highest positioned winners go to the preliminary and the two lowest placed losers are eliminated.Only the top three get a definite double chance but if first lose the winner of fourth versus fifth goes to the preliminary final.
The_Wookie
Roar Guru
no thanks for saving me the trouble of reading any more of your articles.
Jax
Guest
I agree with you 100% after you added that caveat Cam. As I was reading down the string I thought - what if McPharlin went down long-term? Could that be the straw that breaks the camels back? They've done an amazing job to cover for key losses so far but every team has a breaking point and McPharlin might be theirs, the run home is soft as you said which works in their favour so they should make it but anything can happen. Freo have found a way to win the tight games but they don't bury teams which could work against them in a tight one. I don't rate the Crows that highly this year and they fell over the line against the Tigers also, things can change. The Top 3 is locked IMO (barring catastrophe) and Freo will most likely to round out the 4, good article mate!
Jack
Guest
In regards to both Cam's comments and Kev's - very true. Maybe there is too much pressure on first place. Maybe they get complacent. Maybe Roger is right. But there is most certainly that trend there.
Gecko
Guest
Roger that's a pretty persuasive argument re why it's currently better to finish 2nd than 1st. It might even lead to 'tanking in the top 4' as a side manoevres to move down from 1 to 2.
Roger
Guest
The advantage of finishing second (or third) is that you play your toughest game first, then have a rest, then go into the grand final playing no. 4 or below, whereas finishing first gives you an easy qualifying final, but you usually play the no.3 (or 2) in the preliminary, often entering the grand final more beat up from the prelim. For example, in 2011 Geelong (2nd) played Hawthorn and won, then had an easy game in the prelim against West Coast. Collingwood beat West Coast in the qualifying, but had a real battle against Hawthorn. So it was no surprise that Geelong had more in the tank in the last quarter. Statistics also show in the current system that 2nd gets the premiership more often than 1st. It doesn't always work like this, but you can see how it can be an advantage to finish second. To be fair, the team on top should be able to choose who they play in the qualifying final.
Kev
Guest
I didn't know that either till I looked into it. I dare say that the trend of the ladder leader having trouble converting a top place finish into a flag is simply down to the fact that finals are effectively a knockout competition and even though finishing in the top 4 gives you the double chance, you basically have to perform in every match and you can't afford to have an off day.
huddo
Guest
- Won't make the 8. Lock it in
huddo
Guest
@langou I'd like that to be the case, but West Coast will be only retreating, not charging. There is nothing in their current form to suggest that that can play above their weight and overcome that horrific draw in the second half of the season. Even beating St Kilda next week is highly unlikely.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Good point Kev, wasn't aware of that. In recent times, the ladder leader has also had trouble converting that position to a premiership. Second or third seems to be the way to go!
Cameron Rose
Expert
Wookie, let me save you the trouble on Carlton – they’ve not top four material this year. Essendon are an inferior side to Sydney, and Fremantle has a far friendlier draw. The Bombers won’t be finishing on top of either. The first poster was questioning whether Fremantle will tire come finals time. Ross Lyon has shown his ability to get his sides through to the last two weeks in September, so the comment was relevant. The history of the current format of top eight shows us a weighty historical precedent in regards to the premiership coming from the top four. It’s not just that a team has to win four matches in a row in win the flag, they have to do so against at least three superior sides. Not an impossible task, but a very difficult one. The people quoting last year’s ladder positions after round ten have no impact on the point I’m making in this article.
Kev
Guest
Finishing in the top 4 is generally accepted as the minimum to have a realistic tilt at winning the flag but I did a bit of research and found that since '92, only twice has a team finished 4th and gone on to win the flag. Perhaps we should be talking about a minimum top 3 finish instead?