If you are a Sydney Swans supporter right now, you must be sitting there thinking to yourself, “Haven’t I seen something very similar to this just recently?”
And with those thoughts must come a confident chuckle.
As legendary American baseball player then manager Lawrence ‘Yogi’ Berra once said, “It’s like de ja vu all over again.”
Here it is, the dawn of Round 20. Four matches until the finals are upon us.
The Swans have played 25 matches since this time last year, lost some players through injury, gained others through graduation, won a flag, and a truckload of games.
But, here we are at Round 20, and for the Swans, the situation on August 6, 2013, is exactly as it was on August 6, 2012.
Back in 2012, they held a top two spot, actually sitting on the top rung of the ladder. Today, after some shock weekend results, they are again in a coveted top two position as September looms.
Back in 2012, they had three losses and 15 wins. Today, they have three losses, but with 14 wins and a draw.
Back in 2012 at this time, they had won nine of their past 10 matches, Today, they have won nine of their past 10 matches.
And here’s the real de ja vu – what lies ahead.
In the last four rounds in 2012, the Swans played Collingwood in Sydney, beat the lowly placed (15th) Bulldogs in Melbourne, followed by Hawthorn in Sydney, then the Cats in Geelong.
This time around, they play Collingwood in Sydney, the lowly placed (16th) St Kilda in Sydney, followed by the Cats at Geelong and the Hawks in Sydney.
Last year they lost three of those final four, missed the top two, finished in third spot, and then went on to win the flag.
Will 2013 continue to be de ja vu all over again?
Swans fans, while they don’t want the losses heading into the finals like last year, would be thinking if the end result is the same, it doesn’t really matter.
Much is made of finishing in the top two and having home field advantage in the opening week of the finals and, with a win that week, a week off followed by home field again in the preliminary final.
But let’s not forget the Swans won the flag in 2005 after finishing third on the ladder, won it again 2012 after finishing third on the ladder, and in 2006, when they were beaten by a point in the grand final by the Eagles, they finished the home-and-away season in fourth position on the ladder.
And while they have their injury concerns heading into a massive two months of football, 2013 has also seen the ‘arrival’ of talented youngsters Tom Mitchell, Dane Rampe and Brandon Jack into their senior team, the continued improvement of most of their more seasoned, young players, and of course Kurt’s Landing.
Each week since his return from his 11-game, salary cap suspension, we have seen Kurt Tippett look more and more comfortable in the Swans forward line.
Last weekend, that comfort translated into goals, six in fact.
But while that was handy for the Swans, and such hauls will be greatly appreciated in coming weeks, the most pleasing thing for those at the club would be how well Tippett is doing the ‘other things’, the ‘Swans’ things.
The chasing, the forward pressure, the tackling, the one-percenters. All key indicators for the Swans, and Tippett’s numbers have been pleasing.
It was only a couple of months ago, just before he made his debut in the red and white, I posed the question whether it would be a major positive for the Swans bringing the former Crow into their team at that point.
The question, with things working so well for the Swans, having so many contributors in front of goal, was whether bringing in Tippett would upset the apple cart, and possibly make them go to one-dimensional.
Clearly it doesn’t and hasn’t, and probably now won’t.
Despite a hiccup in Tippett’s return, when they lost to Port Adelaide, the Swans are unbeaten since, and week after week Tippett’s input continues to be more noticeable.
How things will unfold when youngster Sam Reid returns from injury remains to be seen but, regardless, coach John Longmire now has plenty of options at the scoring end.
While 2013 is looking so, so similar to 2012 for the Swans, you can also now see why Sydney chased so hard and paid so much to get Kurt Tippett to the SCG.
bloodbrother
Guest
made the early call last year when all the smarties were writing off the swans again..they have more midfield depth than any club and this will win them the flag agin this year with a chance for a threepeat ....cannot believe people climbing all over pies tonight when we dismantled them in melbourne ,,also remember that they were led at 3/4 time by Gws a week or so after the swans put 100 plus on them...cannot see the pies getting close..swans 40 plus..can see a swans /geelong gf coming ...very early call but Tommy Mitchell will win a brownlow within a couple of years ..the kid is a freak...cheer ,cheer the red and the white..
Troy Murray
Roar Rookie
It's true there are many similarities between the 2012 and 2013 swans. One thing that is in stark contrast however, is the number of injuries they have had leading into a finals campaign. In the past few seasons, they have been extremely fortunate with their injury list. This year however, they have Goodes, Jetta, Reid, LRT and Johnson all injured and unlikely to return before the finals if at all this year. Granted, the young players have performed very well and taken their opportunities, however finals football will expose their lack of experience and will ultimately prove the difference between the 2012 and 2013 Swans.
Australian Rules
Guest
But even in the 80s, the Swannies were *still* easily the most attended team in Sydney! From '82 to '89: Swans average - 15.3k NRL average - 9k
Andrew
Guest
Great. Swans have all those things. I am glad but MORE Sydneysiders should get behind them. I am agreeing with you. Agreeing....
Titus
Guest
No. Melbourne, but similar thing.
wisey_9
Roar Guru
I'm pretty sure most of the SCG matches have been sold out this year? Andrew are you posting from the eighties?
Australian Rules
Guest
I'm not sure what your gripe is about Swans fans Andrew...they have more members and bigger crowds than any other Sydney sporting club.
clipper
Guest
If what you say is true Andrew, we should soon expect more people to the Storm than go see Melbourne (I'm amazed they still get that many)
Andrew
Guest
Yes, AR, I know I am preching to the converted with you. LOL.
Andrew
Guest
Chris, We are talking about Sydney here and the lack of passion by Sydneysiders. Melbourne people we know are passionate about their sporting teams. Sydney people would rather drink a good chardonnay than watch sport unfortunately. But the Sydney Swans are such a good product, they MUST buy in. Cmon Sydneysiders, surely you stand for something more than just drinking white wine?!?! Get to the game and support your teams.
Chris
Guest
Andrew can't find fault with your cheer, but remember Sydney Swans are both Sydney and South Melbourne. I am a Sydneysider and keen Swans fan - have you seen how passionate they are whenever Swans play in Melbourne. The Club should be shared by way of legacy.
Australian Rules
Guest
We'll have more important announcements from Andrew right after this...
Andrew
Guest
Mate, I don't know if you have been down to Melbourne recently but things have changed here. The Melbourne Storm are almost the No 1 ticket on the block now. Most of my mates, be it Essendon, Carlton, Collingwood or Richmond - we all follow the Storm vivaciously. So it can change quickly. We love to get together to watch Storm games. The Melbourne Storm are almost the joint No 1 ticket in Melbourne town.
Avatar
Roar Guru
One of the main reasons why the Sydney Swans have been successful in recent years is primarily because they are ignored by the rugby league-obsessed Sydney media, thus, they don't get a lot of media attention in Sydney. Plus, the city has also been seen as a good getaway from the troubles of Melbourne and its' lifestyle for AFL footballers (think Tony Lockett, Barry Hall, Spida Everitt, etc.). Likewise, the Melbourne Storm have been successful in the NRL because they are based in a city where no one cares about league. Melbourne is an AFL-mad city and no one seems to take notice of the Storm's ongoing (though tainted between 2006 and 2010) period of success. The Brisbane Lions had been successful in the early noughties for the exact same reason - no one cared about Aussie rules in Brisbane, let alone Queensland, until they put their name on the map with that hat-trick of premierships between 2001 and 2003. As a result of their successes, not only has there been a new side established (Gold Coast Suns), but now more games were starting to be regularly played in Queensland prior to the development of Metricon Stadium in 2009.
Andrew
Guest
The Sydney Swans are Sydney. If you are not following the Swans 24/7 and turning up to every game, you are not a real Sydneysider. Sydney is a sad town where the people have no passion. Love your rugby league. Love your Swans. Attend and cheer. Go Swans. Up there Cazaly. Please Sydneysiders...grow some passion.
Avatar
Roar Guru
The results over the weekend show that Sydney is the team to beat for the premiership, especially with Geelong and Hawthorn slipping up over the weekend. The Swans' final two matches are undoubtedly tough, they lost three of their last four regular remainders last year but it didn't seem to matter, as they did go on to win the flag. Now, those three teams that Sydney lost to now lie ahead in the run to the finals, so there is no need to panic should Sydney lose to those three again. The Swans did, however, dismantle Collingwood down at the G earlier this year so the team now no longer fears playing the Pies, like they did in the past. Credit to John Longmire for keeping this team in premiership contention when it was thought the Swans would go into a state of decline following the departures of Roos, Kirk and Hall, among others. Their finals record in the AFL (only three missed finals appearances since 1995) is very similar to that of the Brisbane Broncos' in the NRL (only one missed finals appearance since 1991 with a very likely second this year).
megan
Guest
deja vu not de ja matey, as in heading.
Andy_Roo
Roar Guru
You are spot on Michael. There is a great sense of confidence and deja vu for the Swans and their fans. Hopefully the final four rounds will play out a little differently this year though. Fremantle have the best run home and if you use the ladder predictor to look at possible scenarios they will almost certainly finish third. If the Swans can beat Collingwood and St. Kilda then they will finish in the top four even if they lose to both Hawthorn and Geelong. But three losses would see Sydney finish fifth. So this weekend against Collingwood is a massive game. Sydney simply must win. Fortunately they have the home ground advantage, beat the Pies at ANZ Stadium in last years prelim final and beat Collingwood comfortably earlier this year. But with Collingwood coming off a big, confidence boosting win against Essendon and also with their premiership hopes on the line they will be tough to beat. Collngwood overwhelmed the bombers with hard contested footy and relentless pressure, or in other words with 'Swans Footy'. Collingwood also must win if they want to have any chance in September. In fact they must win all their remaining games, and then have other results go their way to even finish in the top four. BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!