AFL games are no longer won or lost in the midfield

Only a few years ago, if you said the half back line was where games are won and lost, people would have laughed.

The rule that had held sway for over a hundred years was that games were won or lost in the midfield.

That’s where you put your best players. And if there was any debate, it was about whether a team still needed a good centre half forward.

Now in 2013, there’s mounting evidence that you don’t have to win the midfield contests. These are no longer the key avenue to goal.

What you have to win is the turnovers at half back and in the centre.

As early as 1997, Malcolm Blight had dropped one of his premier midfielders, Andrew MacLeod, onto the backline to give rebounding power.

Blight recognised the need for speed and for silky delivery off half back, and MacLeod had both these qualities.

This move led to back-to-back premierships for Adelaide in 1997 and 1998, with MacLeod winning the Norm Smith medal in both grand finals.

Yet still the idea persisted that games were won or lost in the midfield.

The all-conquering Brisbane Lions team of 2001-2003 had often dropped Nigel Lappin back to the half back line to boost Brisbane’s speed and precision-passing out of half back, but still the midfield was the priority.

Teams really only dropped star midfielders back to the half back line if they had an excess of star midfielders, and the idea of tagging a half back flanker was just unheard of.

It wasn’t until 2007 that we saw the first signs of permanent change.

Geelong was not dropping its star midfielders back to the half back line, but it was stacking its backline with silky deliverers like Mackie, Hunt, Scarlett and Enright.

Having silky half back flankers was allowing Geelong to rebound through the middle of the ground, where normally the risks of a turnover were considered too high.

These same defenders were also excellent intercept marks, so they could initiate unexpected rebounds.

By 2008, the cat was out of the bag. Coaches were growing increasingly worried about attacks launched from the half back line. Key rebounders like Sam Fisher and Heath Shaw were finding themselves being tagged.

Alistair Clarkson introduced his innovative rolling zone defence, with players guarding space instead of opponents, and his key focus was preventing silky rebounders from kicking the ball through the centre.

In the grand final that year, Clarkson positioned his best play-maker, Luke Hodge at half back on one of the opposition’s least dangerous forwards, leading to a Norm Smith medal for Hodge and a premiership for the Hawks.

The half back line was beginning to be seen as a key weapon of attack, but still people believed that games were won or lost in the midfield .

By 2010, every team was applying a forward press.

If the opposition could rebound through the cage, they might find a lot of space running towards goal, but strategists noted that the two teams who played off in the grand final – Collingwood and St Kilda – were the teams with the best forward press.

Collingwood could win the midfield clearances in the grand final and the grand final replay, but it was only in the grand final replay, when they carried the ball and won the contests across their half forward line, that they blew away St Kilda.

The importance of winning the half back line contests was growing.

Clarkson had seen this coming in the 2010 pre-season when he paid big money to recruit Shaun Burgoyne to add silk to a defence that already boasted Guerra, Birchall, and Hodge.

All could rebound the ball safely through the centre if an opportunity presented.

Statsitics in 2010 were ambiguous. The number of inside 50s continued to be the indicator of success – this stat was lead by Collingwood, Geelong, the Bulldogs and St Kilda.

But what was the main cause of the inside 50s? Proponents of rebound football argued that the inside 50s were generated by rebounds, noting that, statistically, the leading rebound teams were Collingwood, Geelong, St Kilda and the Bulldogs.

These had been the top four teams in 2010. Traditionalists on the other hand noted that the top four teams for centre clearances in 2010 were Collingwood, the Bulldogs, Sydney and Geelong, so midfield contests still decided who won or lost games.

The importance of winning contests across half back was emerging, but traditionalists could still argue that that games were won or lost in the midfield. Even as recently as 2012, the top four teams for clearances – Hawthorn, Adelaide, Sydney, Collingwood – bore a remarkable similarity to the final four.

But in 2013, team statistics are showing a revolutionary new pattern. The top four teams for clearances include the Bulldogs, North Melbourne and West Coast – three teams that will not even make the final eight.

Indeed, the only clear statistical pattern among the current top four teams is that they also sit top four for least goals kicked against them.

Games are not being won or lost in the midfield. The name of the game is turnovers across your half back flank or in your front half.

Turnovers on your full forward line won’t hurt you because your team can normally get back and ‘structure up’ in time.

Losing in the hit outs and clearances won’t hurt as long as you can ensure the opposition clearance is rushed and sloppy.

That’ll give your half back line a chance for a rebound. Hawthorn and Geelong are in the top four because of their intercept marks and creative rebounding from the half back flank.

To aid this, they’ve often dropped Mitchell and Bartel respectively to their back flank.

Sydney and Fremantle are in the top four not because of silky rebounds but because they have the high pressure game to prevent other teams’ creative rebounding.

The Swans have still dropped play-maker McVeigh to their half back line, while Fremantle play De Boer as an almost permanent tagger on opposition rebounders.

Collingwood will miss out on the top four not because of midfield deficiencies – it’s midfield has been intact and competitive – but because it’s running rebound capacity has been depleted by the lack of games played by Toovey, Johnston, Shaw and Dale Thomas.

The most influential contests in the coming finals series will not be in the midfield but across half back lines. I’d expect either the Swans or Geelong to win the flag because these also have an edge in midfield speed to assist their rebounders.

The Hawks and the Dockers will need their pacey Hill brothers to play major roles assisting their rebounders if they are to have any chance. In essence, they’ll need an Andrew MacLeod.