This week the Adelaide Crows play their second last game at AAMI Stadium for the year and forever.
With the end of this era fast approaching and finals seemingly out of reach for the Crows, list management for 2014 will be at the forefront of many Adelaide fans minds.
Despite slipping from a preliminary final in 2012 to out of the eight in 2013, there is reason to be optimistic if you follow the Crows. The team is reasonably well balanced in terms of positioning across the ground and importantly seems to be fostering talented and promising youth.
While there are many promising new or near-new players coming up for the Crows, despite their slide down the ladder, there are a few players who have not added value in their roles so far this season.
The most significant of these disappointing players has been the captain Nathan Van Berlo. Although Van Berlo has not been the single worst player on the list this season, it is my belief that he is no longer in the best 22 at this club.
Now you might argue several things: that his slip from the best 22 shouldn’t necessarily warrant his dismissal. You may even believe he is in fact still in the best 22. And that getting rid of a good club servant and current captain is suicide for club culture and performance, just look at the Demons.
Let me address these concerns by outlining the following reasons for trading out Nathan Van Berlo:
1. Underperforming/career trajectory
I base a lot of my ideas on a formula that I use to evaluate a player’s entire statistical contribution. Across season 2013 Van Berlo has, in what I would call ‘real terms’, cost his team 0.09 of a goal per game. In other words, he has detracted from the overall value of the team rather than adding to it.
Last week, in a good team performance against Port Adelaide, he was worth -.37 of a goal. If you look at Van Berlo’s previous two seasons he has been declining in every statistical category across 2012 and 2013. The upshot of this long term projection is that at 27 years of age one wouldn’t be expecting Van Berlo to be trending upward.
Even if he arrests his decline in form you would not expect him to produce his career best standard. Looking at his statistical specifics reveals a player that is not truly proficient in any area. As a midfielder Van Berlo can’t really be defined as either an ‘inside’ or ‘outside’ player.
His 3.5 tackles a game is ok but he’s only getting it 17 times a game (lower than at any time since his first two seasons). Of these possessions less than half are contested and he is using the ball at an unbelievably poor 63%.
This sort of stat would only be acceptable if an Berlo contributed as a goal kicker or brute strength clearance player but he is lacking in these areas also. Ultimately the form line both current and projected does not bode well.
2. New era
On the verge of a new era away from AAMI stadium perhaps it wouldn’t be ridiculous for the Crows to consider a leadership change? The future of their club lies with players like Dangerfield and Sloane, who are by all reports very mature leaders for their age.
That they are excellent players is beyond dispute and arguably the opportunity to lead the club would not only provide the recognition these players deserve but also enhance their status and performance.
While keeping Van Berlo and changing captains is a more likely and less drastic approach under the right circumstances, having the captain leave the club does not have to mean opening the door to a leadership vacuum.
3. Van Berlo still has currency
Aside from the fact that I believe he is past his best the other big advantage to trading Van Berlo now is that he might actually still have currency. As a leader and formerly good midfield presence, there are many clubs who would happily welcome Van Berlo to their club.
As a native West Australian one of these clubs might prove attractive to him or alternatively GWS might be interested in adding his experience to a very young midfield.
In return Adelaide could go in a couple of directions. They could look for high draft picks and continue to regenerate the list from the ground up or seek a value trade by getting a similar but younger midfielder ready to enter their optimal form window.
My preference would be for Adelaide to look for a ruckman. Sam Jacobs is a very good tap ruckman but has had a poor year and looked very one dimensional.
At 25 it is worth persisting with Jacobs even if he needs to add strings to his bow however a good first choice ruckman would create competition for the role and potentially be better for the Crows.
In a perfect world with Walker and Jenkins fit the number one forward and second ruck/forward spots are theirs. However, with Jacobs out of form and unable to play other positions and an injury to either Walker or Jenkins (or both!) there is simply not enough size and quality at these key posts (Shaun McKernan could be delisted/traded also).
A more mobile or versatile first ruck would be a very useful puzzle piece for Adelaide and could see them recapture 2012 type form.
4. Qualifying statements
Finally, I’d like to finish by qualifying my previous statements and defending Van Berlo somewhat. I realise there are intangibles to take into consideration and if Van Berlo is loved and respected as captain trading him could have disastrous implications for club culture and morale.
Unfortunately, I am not privy to that inside information. Moreover there are some worse performed players in 2013 on the list (Tambling, Porplyzia, Brodie Martin) and some players only slightly ahead of him who could still be used as trade bait in the way I have described here (Bernie Vince, Sam Jacobs, Shaun McKernan, David McKay).
Obviously it is more likely that one of these players or other players deemed to be underperforming would be traded out before Van Berlo and the club would simply hope for improvement from their captain.
My feeling, however, is that not only is Van Berlo not adding value according to my formula but that his nominal output in all statistical categories is declining and at his age is unlikely to rebound significantly.
The most likely chance for a form/career revival is probably a role change. Figures would suggest Van Berlo isn’t effective as a genuine midfielder any more.
Potentially a defensive forward role or half back sweeper could work although these are the immediate thoughts that came to my mind without much thought for Van Berlo’s particular skills and talents. At the end of the day I’m not sure that his statistical results indicate that he has any unique talents to offer.
No doubt I will be pilloried for suggesting that a club captain be stood down from the role and traded from the club, but how many teams can afford to stand on sentiment?
Why should it be such a big deal to trade a captain anyway? I think a club’s first priority is to have value added players, irrespective of position, age or ‘intangibles’.
These concerns are secondary though, and if a 27-year-old player is both underperforming and has limited upside the club has a duty to replace them irrespective of how well liked they are by their teammates.
Nick Croker
Guest
Alan did you take a look at my site? Www.truefootyvalue.com. The run down I have of the Crows list draws exactly those conclusions. It is interesting to see that Dangerfield disposes the ball at less than 65% efficiency. The fact that he's so valuable despite this underpins how much he contributes in every other area. He would only need to bring his disposal up to close to 70% to be the crows most valuable. If he started using it at a truly elite rate, around 75% he'd be top 5 in the league. Sloane is truly a gun. I barrack for collingwood and I wouldn't part with Pendlebury but I'd give you virtually anyone else for sloane. He works both ways, tackles, contests marking situations where he's outsized, uses it very efficiently and gets as many contested possessions as he gets uncontested. I realise getting rid of established leaders and experienced players has bad press right now because of the situation at melbourne not to mention Carlton and even teams like GWS who struggle because of their extremely young list and lack of established leaders. I think however there are examples of young leaders stepping up. Wayne Carey was a very young captain and north melbourne became an outstanding 2 time premiership team. I think in the right circumstances this type of move can work. From the outside I think they should put the responsibility on sloane and shed the under performers even if it means losing the captain.
Alan
Guest
Could not agree more. VB and Mckay have been underperforming. VB has no current strong point that adds to the team and is being outperformed by the new young players, Crouch Grigg, Kerridge, Laird and Lyons. These younger players should not be on the sidelines behind VB anymore and need more game time not less., McKay is tackle shy and avoids the hard stuff. Time for him to go. Dangerfield needs to work hard on his disposal as his recent efforts have devalued his worth to the team. Sloan has passed him as the most valuable crows player now equal with Taylor Walker and they should be paid more than Dangerfield. Crouch will be a better player than Dangerfield because he uses the ball so much better. Then again so does half the team. Time for Dangerfield to work on his disposal big time if he is to justify his salary.
Steve
Guest
Martin untouchable? I have seen him play 1 or 2 good games and I have seen almost if not all his games, unfortunately gone are: Johncock, Graham, Martin, Tambling, Atkins, Riley and Orval... McIntyre Klaosen and Osborn maybe, and L.Thompson Porplyzia and Callinan are in need of form, S.Thompson is yet to resign, I dont see a great deal of trade bate so I see the club targeting free agents maybe a poor club trade for Bellchambers Bettes Cooney Watts etc if they dont or havent signed. VB should stay on but make Sloane / Dangerfield / Crouch Co Captains, let VB focus on just defensive jobs not both, also Trigg can move on and see if Vossy wants to move to SA
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
Cheers for the comments guys - you should jump on www.truefootyvalue.com and follow me @truefootyvalue. I did a more comprehensive look at Adelaides whole list which was a bit long to publish on theroar I reckon Adelaide are an interesting team. At the end of the day injuries have probably allowed them to try players and put them in a somewhat better position for next year. There probably aren't too many definite delistings, outside of Tambling who is just a sad sad story all round. Get Walker back and fit and keep getting improvement from Jenkins, Dangerfield, Sloane , Talia and the likes and the Crows could be a really dangerous team. Can anyone tell me why they dont give ANgus Graham a go? I thought he was serviceable at Richmond but hasnt got a crack at the Crows. Injured?
Lroy
Guest
Lycett has improved out of sight, don't think the Eagles will let him go. The great man Dean Cox is begining to show his age.. hes only got one more year left in him.. Lycett will probably be the backup to Naitanui going forward.
Dan Ced
Guest
I'd give McKay and VB 1 more season to find their best form. Unsure about Porps, I like him, but he hasn't delivered this season. Didn't impress enough as sub earlier in the year. Seems Petrenko has taken his place and at least showed bursts of form. I'm happy that Laird re-signed he has been good for a rookie, probably better than Luke Brown in the back line. Also happy that Rutten has stayed on, his previous few years had me screaming for a trade but he has had a very good year in 2013. Disappointing losing so many winnable games this season, having a sniff week after week against top shelf opposition but not being quite up to standard. I still think we should've finished in the 8 this year because I rate the players, but oh well.
Shane Jones
Roar Guru
Good article Nick. Van Berlo has played very well the last few weeks. I still believe he is Adelaide's best captain for the time being. The caution of putting Dangerfield or Sloane as captain is highlighted by what's happened at Carlton. They had Murphy as captain and he has struggled to grasp the leadership while also struggling on the field. If you add this pressure to the likes of Dangerfield and Sloane at their still young age, it could translate into their footy. Van Berlo is the right fit for now and the next two years, then transition the right way to Dangerfield. In relation to these players Tambling, Porplyzia, Brodie Martin, Bernie Vince, Sam Jacobs, Shaun McKernan, David McKay my answer is this. Tambling is gone. Porplyzia will re-sign. Martin, Vince, Jacobs & McKay are untouchable and won't be traded. McKernan is trade material and is out of contract.
TomC
Roar Guru
I don't know much about his leadership abilities, but presumably they're pretty significant. Hence being made captain. Adelaide need an experienced defensively minded midfielder more than most other teams at the moment. Their midfield is younger than most and slanted towards outside rather than inside players. Players like Crouch, Grigg and Riley might carry more of the ball-winning burden in years to come, but right now they need experienced legs in the midfield rotation. He's a stable presence at a footy club which has had a lot of personnel changes over the last few years. He's a solid player, but doesn't have any standout abilities that would make him a particularly attractive commodity on the trade market. There are quite a lot of players like him out there at other clubs. If the Crows traded him now, after his worst season in some time (statistically at least), they'd just be trading him at his lowest possible value. And any potential trade customer would have to factor in the risk that he might just not fit in at his new club, and wouldn't be able to perform the same role he did at Adelaide. So that would further diminish his trade value. Players like Van Berlo don't get traded very often. For some of the reasons stated above, it's very hard to engineer a win-win situation. Let's say Adelaide wanted to trade for a young ruckman. My own team, the Brisbane Lions, have a high-drafted ruckman in Billy Longer who is developing in the reserves, so that might be a possible target. But how would Van Berlo fit into a team that already has Moloney, Rockliff and Redden, who all play a pretty similar role?
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Interesting debate you creating here Nick. As someone has said early, the negating role he's played this season goes along way to explaining the drop in the statistical out put. Whether he's worthy trade bait is an interesting one? I agree with good Ruckman to help out Jacobs would be what they are looking? Not sure if VB is enough to get that.....
Nick Croker
Guest
I think personally the tagging role can be overrated. If you take out an opponent but don't add value yourself I'm not sure that the zero sum result is enough to justify your place. The best taggers of all time - people like Cameron Ling - were ofensive weapons as well. Even someone like Ryan Crowley is at his best as a tagger when his opponent has to chase him for portions of the game. It's not to say that he couldn't be valuable as a tagger, VB is obviously super fit and like one of the other comments said he's not so old that he doesnt have a career ahead of him. He could easily go somewhere and play another 100 games. I just think if he's going to be limited to the role of tagger for the rest of his career he needs to lay mroe than 3 and a bit tackles and win more contested ball at the very least. I also reckon tagger or not its hard to justify your spot as a midfielder of any kind with disposal efficiency around the 60% mark. Now that I've written this article he'll probably win a Brownlow, all Im saying is his form has consistently declined over 2 seasons and he doesnt play any specific role with great proficiency or consistency. Having said that they might release him to play with more freedom in 2014 and all the declining stats will start to improve because of where and how he gets his possessions.
Nick Croker
Guest
Explain? Are you saying his leadership qualities are phenomenal? THey would have to be to justify his form.
TomC
Roar Guru
He's worth more to Adelaide than to anyone else.
Franko
Guest
A young and promising ruckman like Scott Lycett and a mid-range pick from the Eagles is probably the best they can get if they want to send him back west. They are probably better off holding on to him to be honest. At 27 and with his fitness, they can get another 4-5 years out of him and trading your captain is not a very good msg to send to the rest of the side.
Mark
Guest
-- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Mark
Guest
Interesting article Nick. The Crows need to trade this year and as you say, players like VB, Vince, Mackay, McKernan and a few others will no doubt be thought of as trade bait. It's worth noting VB did restrict Boomer Harvey to 16 touches on the weekend (he's averaged over 30 for the last 4 weeks). It's a tough one, you'd want to get something decent for him. As a Crows fan I'm 50/50 on this one. -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Radelaide
Guest
Still has currency???
Dan
Guest
I think the main thing this article misses is that VB's output is down due to the defensive midfield role he's been playing most weeks. Any tagging player will have to sacrifice their own stats somewhat in order to get the job done.