Football coaches quite regularly face tough decisions, but Sydney mentor John Longmire will have some intriguing ones put in front of him after this weekend’s clash with Geelong at The Cattery.
A win against the Cats, and Longmire’s Swans will move into second spot on the ladder and a home qualifying final beckons.
Please indulge me and let’s just briefly deal in hypotheticals.
If the Swans beat the Cats, and other results go as expected (Hawthorn beating North Melbourne and Fremantle getting over Port Adelaide), then heading into the last round the Hawks would have top spot sealed on 72 points, Sydney would be second on 66 points, Fremantle third (66 points) on percentage and the Cats fourth with 64 points.
Freo should beat St Kilda in Round 23, and Geelong should be too strong for Brisbane, seeing them finish the season on 70 and 68 points respectively with their ladder position dependant on Sydney’s result against the Hawks.
Confused? Don’t be.
The Swans will need to beat the Hawks to finish second and gain home field advantage in week one of the finals.
If the Swans have beaten the Cats, and the Hawks beaten the Kangaroos going into the clash, with top spot wrapped up, would Alastair Clarkson consider resting a few of his players with nothing but injuries really to gain against the Swans?
Possibly, but, he would also know in this scenario that a Round 23 win means a qualifying final against the Swans, a loss would see them play their bogey side Geelong in week one.
But what about Longmire? He has injured stars Adam Goodes (knee), Lewis Jetta (shin), Sam Reid (quad) and Lewis Roberts-Thomson (knee) all hoping to make their way back into the senior team for the finals.
If second place was up for grabs, would he want to bring one or two or all of them, into the team stone cold for such a crucial clash? And if he doesn’t, can he then bring them in the following week?
Longmire admitted after the Swans win over St Kilda on Sunday that the quartet, while they have been running, haven’t actually started training yet.
Surely it would be a risk putting them into a game with such high stakes, without having had a run?
But what about the alternative scenario? What if the Cats beat the Swans (and they are short odds to do so on their home turf) this weekend?
If it happens and again if the Hawks and Dockers win as expected, then things change dramatically for Round 23.
Sydney would be staring at fourth spot on the ladder, regardless of whether they lost to or defeated the Hawks. It would mean they would play the Hawks on August 30 at ANZ Stadium, then again a week later at the MCG.
What that would present for Longmire is the perfect opportunity to give either Goodes or Jetta or Reid or Roberts-Thomson – or even all of them, a good solid hitout heading into the finals, without the pressure of so much hinging on that Round 23 clash, and then allow him to consider one or all for the finals’ match a week later against Hawthorn.
Of course the alternative is that he simply sticks with the guys who have taken his team into the top four, but would there be any coach in the AFL who wouldn’t want to slot a dual Brownlow Medal winner into their team for the finals?
And what about having Mr Reliably Versatile, Roberts-Thomson in your 22?
Or the speedy Jetta who can turn the game with a sprint down a wing? Or the athletic Reid, who would be a perfect one-two punch alongside Kurt Tippett in the forward line?
One in, two in, all in, none in?
They are all hypotheticals at the moment, I know. But this time next week, coach Longmire will be facing a decision of some sort about his Round 23 team.
If they are all fit, have managed to get through training unscathed, and – apart from match fitness – are ready to go, put your coach’s cap on, and which way would you go?
I know I’ll be looking on curiously around 6.30pm on Thursday, August 29 when the team is announced.
David
Guest
Maybe parochial Victorians, personally, I'd like to see Syd vs Freo GF. It might not be high scoring but most of the best games aren't.
johno
Guest
Sydney have only played Freo at Subi 4 times since 2001, the last time was in 2010. In fact we can make up silly stats like - Sydney have only beaten Freo at Subiaco once since 1999 .... Everyone thought Freo's soft run (Melbourne in round 23) last year would mean the Cats would romp it in at the MCG in week 1 of the finals.
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
All good points, but as a Swans fan I stand by views. Swans have good record at Subiaco, albiet against the Eagles but were only interstate side to beat them there in 2011 and 2012. Can't read into Home record for Freo V Swans as they hardly play there. Freo's soft run into finals may result in a bit of a shock come week 1 of finals. Whoever Sydney plays it will be a tough game, but I fancy their chances against the Dockers far more compared to Hawthorn and Geelong.
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
That analysis was based on 2012 premiership points. Some teams have dropped off considerably (Adelaide for example which Freo played twice) and others have moved up (Geelong back in top 2 which Sydney play twice) which obviously would change rankings. Understand the way the AFL designed the draw Freo and Swans draw were level pegging statistically, but as the results panned out, Freo's draw was easier than Sydney's. My analysis is based on actual performance and ladder positions in 2013.
Buzza
Guest
Swans beat Collingwood in the Finals last year. No reason why they couldn't do it again.
Buzza
Guest
I love the senarios - let me pose another. What if the Swans beat Geelong & Hawks lose to North. That could mean that the top 2 could finish Freo & Sydney (or visa versa). This is an exciting end to the season. As for winning the premiership, I think it all depends on who plays who & where (MCG vs Etihad vs interstate) in the Top 4. Swans match up well against Hawks, Pies match up well against Swans & Tigers match up well against Hawks (as do the Cats). Freo is the wildcard but their MCG form is yet to be properly tested (apart from 1 game last year against Geelong). Even though I am a Swans fan, I think that if Hawks & Geelong finish 1st & 2nd, only a first week loss by either of these teams will stop a Geelong Hawks Grand Final. Any of the top 4 would be worthy premiers.
kick to kick
Guest
Good points. The permutations are very interesting within an already decided top four. Freo are even a chance at top if Hawks lose to Kangas and Swans, even if Swans win at Geelong. The odds are Freo will win both remaining games with a strong percentage boost. Actually Freo are likely to end with the highest percentage in the league which is usually a sign of genuine quality ... though I think the Hawks will finish top with Swans fourth and probably Geelong second, Freo third - though the last two could easily switch. As a Swans fan I'd settle for 4th. An away qualifying final against Hawthorn isn't the end of the world. I still think Hawthorn is the toughest opponent in the comp. A Swans win would mean a home prelim - a loss would see a home elimination final probably against Richmond - and if that is won, an away prelim likely against Freo or Geelong. That would be better than an away preliminary final against Hawthorn - leaving that to a GF rematch if the Swans are lucky enough to get that far. But the GF could be between any two of that set. No club has yet won a flag from 4th, under the current system . Sydney went within one point in 2006 and actually had an easier run to the GF than in 2005.
Balthazar
Guest
That's interesting as Freo has a better H/A record against the Swans than most. Swans are also pretty unfamiliar at playing Freo at Subi (2 in 10 years? or something like that), as opposed to the postage stamp of the SCG. And plenty of teams make it to the big dance after a second semi final. I think this team - not changed much from last year - will feel comfortable in a finals environment. Swans on the other hand look like they will be struggling with injuries for the remainder of the year. I reckon Horse would have plenty of second thoughts . All of the top 4 are good teams and have different strengths and weakeness. One of Freo's strengths is the fortress that the House of Pain has become for it - only the Cats can claim the same kind of home town advantage and finals are not played at Simmonds
johno
Guest
Don't believe me - here's Champion Data's ratings for the 2013 draw 1 North Melbourne (1036) 2 Hawthorn (1028) 3 Collingwood (1004) 5 West Coast (988) 6 Geelong (982) 7 Sydney (976) 8 Fremantle (970) 9 Carlton (968) 10 Essendon (966) = 11 Port Adelaide (962) = 11 Richmond (962) = 11 St Kilda (962) 14 GWS (942) 15 Adelaide (938) 16 Brisbane Lions (916) 17 Gold Coast (914) 18 (Melbourne) As I said - Sydney and Freo are about equal .....
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
"Freo’s total draw in 2013 is rated about middle, on a par with Sydney actually." Hmm not sure about that. Freo play one Top 8 side twice, that being Richmond. In contrast, Sydney will play 3 Top 8 sides twice including Hawthorn and Geelong who are ranked 1st and 2nd respectively. the other being Collingwood. Swans two matches against GWS are cancelled out by Freo's two matches against Melbourne. The Swans have had a much tougher draw than Freo. For the record, I think Freo 2013 is better than Adelaide 2012 but there are still parallels. Freo is still fairly inexperienced going deep into finals and they only play one top 8 side in their last 6 home and away matches. Not saying a trip to Perth would be easy but if you asked John Longmire which side he would want to play, he would pick the Dockers without a second thought.
johno
Guest
Difference being that Adelaide in 2012 had 2 games against GWS, GC and Port (who were poor last year). They were rated as the softest draw in 2012, and some might argue that's why they ended 2nd, rather than being the second best team. Freo's total draw in 2013 is rated about middle, on a par with Sydney actually. They pay top 8 contender in Port this weekend, and as Ross has said - the opposition doesn't matter it's the way they play the game (113 + 95 point margins shows they are not taking their foot off the pedal) Last year Freo played Melbourne in the final game at home and still came out the following week and beat Geelong at the MCG.
GazzaW
Guest
This could be the worst year of sport in my life Ashes disaster, Eagles faltering, Wallabies humiliated My basketball team lost but if Freo win a flag!. The TV would off for weeks and i'd start going to the Arts and visit museums
Billy
Guest
I don't think it really shows how valuable a top two spot is, I think it more shows that generally the best two teams finish top two.
Billy
Guest
I don't think it really shows how valuable a top two spot is, I think it more shows that generally the best two teams finish top two.
Balthazar
Guest
But Freo is not Adelaide.... I seem to recall Hawthorn felt the same way about a trip to Perth for a finals game. Do not underestimate the intimidation of the purple army in full voice, or the grittiness that Ross Lyon has instilled in this team. I am confortable with Freo paying the Swans or Geelong, the cattery excepted
Pope Paul VII
Guest
I think Sydney are in the box seat but if they lose that's the way it goes. Losses to Collies, Geelong and Hawthorn in closing rounds last year meant nothing on the big day. They are still the most hardworking team and don't have the scrutiny and expectation of Geel and Haw, nor the inexperience of Freo.
GazzaW
Guest
I hate to say it but Freo is sitting pretty if they finish top 2 then they are 80% likely to make the grand final they will desperate and the likes of Pavlich could be a game changer in the finals. There a lot less pressure on a interstate team if they make a grand final they hit Melbourne then run nothing like the build up a Vic team has in grand final week.
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
Agreed. The pies are no certianty to be beat North either.
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
I reckon Sydney would rather play Fremantle even if it is in Perth. Freo have had a pretty soft run in the lead up to finals and I reckon Swans will draw paralells with Adelaide in 2012.
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
Certaintly a double or nothing scenario for the Swans. Irrespective they would like to beat at least one of the teams for their own confidence. Should they lose to Geelong, they might as well put their reserves out against Hawthorn the following week. In terms of the injured players to bring back in, Goodes and LRT are in as they are versatile and experienced. Sam Reid has not shown enough this season and with Jesse White in good form, you keep him in the side. The jury is out on Jetta. He definently has X factor, but he has not had a great season and has gone missing in several games. Maybe take a punt on him and start him as a sub.