It is becoming increasingly clear that people are getting tired of seeing the Australian batting order resemble the village bicycle.
I’ve been one of those harping on like Joanna Newsome about the ‘pick and stick’ principle Australia should apply for the foreseeable future.
But there is a simple and important question when picking a player in a Test cricket side for development purposes: how sure are you this player is going to benefit from your trust and repay your faith?
Such a simple question comes with a simple and unfortunate answer: you can’t be sure.
This is one of those questions that can only be answered with the benefit of hindsight.
The question then becomes, as posed by Ryan O’Connell, how far the fans’ and selectors’ tolerance for failure should stretch?
If a batsman or bowler simply isn’t repaying your faith after 10, 15, 25 Tests, how much longer can you persevere with the chap before giving it away as a lost cause?
When does a development project turn into a discard?
The best we can do, realisitically, is pick players that, to the best of our knowledge and with all the evidence available, will be the best in one, two or five years’ time.
Usman Khawaja and Phil Hughes have both earned their right three times over to be selected in the Australian squad due to intimidating first-class figures.
Another contentious figure is Ed Cowan, who looks to be out of favour with the current coaching establishment.
Cowan was selected on the back of a mountain of Shield runs, and was dropped one Test after being Australia’s second best batsman by aggregate and fourth by average in the Test series in India.
These three players, all of them contentious figures at the selection table, are the ones who have stood out from the crowd in Shield cricket in recent times.
But are any of them going to make the cut as Test cricketers down the track? Or should we give up on them entirely?
Usman Khawaja was recently given three Ashes Tests to push his claims for a spot. Aside from a fighting 50 at Lord’s, he didn’t acquit himself nearly as well as he would have liked.
Hughes was given a healthy-ish run; three Tests against Sri Lanka (for which he can thank Rob ‘Magnificent 9’ Quiney), four against India and two against England.
He was thoroughly sorted out in India, but just as Khawaja was about to earn his call-up, the perennial Test bridesmaid forgot to check his diary and consequently missed both a homework date and the Mohali Test.
Hughes fought admirably with the willow in hand for the last two games in India, and did so again in the first Ashes Test, with that memorable partnership with Ashton Agar.
Three bad innings later and he found himself on the outer once more.
Cowan was given 18 Tests in a row to make his case, and he did make a case of some sort.
He scored one ton against a very good South African attack, and tried hard in India, facing a Cowan-esque number of balls in the process.
He also had a string of low scores to accompany this and his past deeds clearly weren’t enough to earn more than one Ashes Test worth of credit.
Are these the best players in our Shield comp, most likely to make the step up into the Test arena? Past experience would tell us yes.
So who really deserves to go on the scrapheap and who deserves to stay in contention?
Cowan’s definitely the grittiest of these three gentlemen, and offers the most to the team in leadership and unflappability.
He’s also the oldest, which counts against him in the development stakes.
Or does Hughes, the guy with so much aptitude for scoring century after century at lower levels, simply need to make that elusive step up, wart-ridden technique at all?
Then we come to Khawaja, the most elegant bladesman of the trio. He has all the shots, but also an irritating tendency of being dismissed for a low score playing the best looking block you’re likely to see this side of Mark Waugh’s retirement.
It’s an impossible thing to answer. Even after 18 Tests to Ed, 26 games to Phil and a mere nine to Usman, I’m none the wiser as to who’s a discard and who’s a trump card.
Hindsight will reveal the answer, of course, but there’s simply no way of knowing who the ‘right’ guy for the job is, right now.
Follow Paddy on Twitter @PatrickEffeney
Michal Swierczynski
Roar Rookie
Top notch piece
Patrick Effeney
Editor
Like the thinking HH! Paradigm-breaking stuff!
Patrick Effeney
Editor
Great stats pope, and I think appoint well made.
Simoc
Guest
Forrest for me to
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Khawaja Janed South Africa all over the shop and his 54 at Lords was a fighting innings. If he stops helping the bowler get him out he will be dangerous.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Just looked up someone some of you may recall He scored 21 100s and averaged 43, was brave beyond doubt and could play all around the wicket Early on however he was nervous, technically flawed and only occassionally effective. He scored 124 @17.71 in England then followed up with 144 @ 18 at home against England - and that included a 100! David Clarence Boon. Under this careers on the line selection modell he would never have made it, and all our future stars will be shooting.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
If it really was so easy to get picked as a NSW player, you wouldn't think so many NSW players would be moving to other states to try to improve their career prospects. Klinger, despite having a couple of very good SS seasons, still only has a career average of 37 as a 33 year old. Hardly screaming out for selection. Chris Rogers got picked at 35, but he's maintained a consistent career averaging 50+.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
But that is part of the problem with state cricket at the moment. In the past the people who've been knocking on the door have have career averages of 50 and having a great year for them meant averaging 70-80 or even more (like Katich did to force his way back into the team). Someone who averages under 40 and for whom a banner year is averaging mid-50s is hardly going be be someone who'll average mid-to-high 40s in test cricket unless we are talking a 21 year old who is well and truly still developing and on the way up.
Dan Ced
Guest
Yeah those first 6 Shield games will be crucial. Unless you play for NSW.. then you just have to get a few 30s at a 30 strike rate and wink at a selector!
Red Kev
Guest
I think he's in with a good shot, especially if he is averaging 40+ next season
Dan Ced
Guest
I want the selectors to at least MENTION Klinger's name when considering a team for the return ashes. Warner failed again so he should be relegated to ODI and T20.
Pudd
Guest
I'm not sure about Cowan - that 100 against South Africa was magnificent but the rest of his spell wasn't so great. I think if rogers showed us anything it's that if anyone consistently scores big enough runs whatever their age or style they should be considered. -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
matt h
Guest
Of the three I think Hughes still has the best chance of making it one day. He shows the most obvious hunger to score big runs. Cowan has wrung every last drop out of his limited talent pool. I don't mean that to be insulting either. If some of his more talented colleagues did the same then we wouldn;t even need to have this discussion. But I think that is all there is for Ed. Khawaja is the most difficult to judge. I remember Dane Carlaw, the Brisbane League player once described as "built like Tarzan and plays like Jane". That seems to be the case for now. To address the title "Who is our next batting hero". I thought that was obvious. We had him in the first test and his name is Ashton :-)
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Peter Siddle, if he doesn't get a 100 tonight he should retire.
SteveW
Guest
Personally think that management are somewhat to blame (leaving Boof Lehman aside for now as he's only new in the job) and that Australia need to settle on what type of batsmen they want in each position in the order - Essentially Work out do we want an accumlator or a hitter at first drop, do we want two dashers opening or a grinder and a dasher. Who do we want at 6? a keeper batsmen to make room for an all-rounder at 7 or a specialist batsmen to recover things if the top order faulters. etc etc. I think there is enough talent around the provide a balanced order, however ultimatelymanagement need to decide what they want the order to look like and pick the Batsmen that is best suited to that role... Then the Batsmen can actually be quite clear on what type of game is expected from them and whether they are most likely to bat at 1,2,3,4,5,6 depending on how they play. We seem to have quite an unbalanced line up at times, where we have 4 dashers one after the other, or 3 accummulators one after the other. Problem is that the batsmen come into the team and they seem to not bat in the same fashion as they do in Shield, it's horrible to watch the likes of Hughes and Khawaja at times as they seem to be batting how they think they should be in the position they are placed in the order rather then following their natural game....
Patrick Effeney
Editor
Gotcha! Well played (or is it plaid?) from you Guy. My apologies.
Happy Hooker
Guest
Easy one Paddy. Sarah Elliott.
Guy
Guest
Paddy, Did Cowan layed on or laid on those runs? The use of layed is propably the most controversial thing you have written in the whole article.
paul
Guest
Paddy to develop batsmen we need a continuous Sheffield Shield season on decent pitches that take spin late in the game. Not two Shield seasons split by the Big Bash on pitches that have nothing in them for the spinners. Players in form in the Shield before the Big Bash could easily lose it by the time the Shield resumes. How can Australia have its main proving ground for tests totally halted for six weeks or whatever it is to play a totally unrelated form of the game. Also what happened to Forrest for Queensland? He seemed to have a great technique for a number 3 but disappointed last year. I still think he could make the grade,
Dane Eldridge
Expert
Too much sensibility. Again. Patrick, you know as well as I do that we now live in a society of irrational cricket fans. 1-2 Tests is considered a reasonable and acceptable amount of time for a new batsman to produce a spotless run of knocks of the standard of a 'potential future captain'. If you can't reach this modest pass mark immediately, then it's off to the Futures League to look down your nose at bright-eyed youngsters. FOREVER. To be fair, the three Test window given to 'Magnificent 9' was excessive. What a teacher's pet.