Essendon being stripped of points presents a massive opportunity to the teams circling just outside of the eight, but it also creates a bit of a conundrum for Richmond and Collingwood.
The two were neck-in-neck in a race to fifth to secure a home final against Port Adelaide. Now, with the Power shunted up to seventh spot, it’s highly likely the team finishing fifth will be playing a Melbourne derby, while sixth place will be the ones enjoying a home final.
What would Collingwood and Richmond prefer? Port with its dismal Melbourne record, or a local arch-rival revitalised by a last-minute stay of execution?
Carlton would be a scary prospect for Richmond, who have struggled to beat the Navy Blues in recent years. They’d be an equally unwelcome sight in Collingwood’s eyes, who certainly wouldn’t want all the hype, emotion and distraction brought about by the Mick Malthouse factor.
North Melbourne too would be a perilous task – with a top four-esque percentage of 120, they are clearly no easy beats.
Of course it would be a different story if Adelaide or Brisbane scraped into the eight (or the highly unlikely prospect of West Coast). But the two Victorian contenders are most likely to make the cut, and such a scenario would give the Pies and Tigers food for thought.
Of course, setting out to deliberately lose is fraught with peril – flirting with form is generally not a good idea.
More likely, though, is that considering both are up against competitive opponents (Richmond faces Essendon while Collingwood are up against North), they won’t need to go out of their way to drop any points.
Resting any players not quite at 100%, and keeping a bit in the tank for finals should be enough to secure the strategic losses required.
suzi
Guest
Richmond had three smalls out the day they played Carlton, and they were sorely missed. The team balance will be right next week and we will win. And yes fifth is a better spot than 6th for the following week.
Matt
Guest
I think the Tigers and Pies will abide by the old adage, don't flirt with form. The Tigers will be looking for another big win ahead of an overdue finals campaign. The Pies are in transition; this isn't the side from 2010, 2011 and 2012. They've revamped their list with a lot of young, talented and - at times - mercurial players. Going through the motions wouldn't do them any good ahead of the finals.
Connor
Guest
What if this happened (About 1% chance of happening) -Tigers finish 6th and beat Port -Geelong beat Fremantle -Fremantle and Richmond play in Perth -Richmond scrape home (they nearly won there this year) -Richmond play Hawthorn and beat them in a prelim (this is based on Hawthorn winning qualifying final) Richmond are in the Grand Final. I'm not even a tigers supporter but i just wasted a minute of your time with this ridiculous prediction
Connor
Guest
Richmond would be better off finish 5th. Yes, they'll probably play carlton instead of port, but if they win theyll either play hawthorn or sydney, 2 teams who theyve beaten within the last 2 years.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Agree Slane. And all records come to an end eventually. It will happen one day. If Essendon had the drugs scandal break when it did, I would have not been surprised if they did it.
Judy Morris
Guest
Wouldn't it be something if by sheer luck Brisbane lions somehow got in the 8,especially after sacking Voss as coach. I'd like to see the board explain that senario.They should resign themselves. We all know Hawthorn still looks the strongest team but who knows what can happen on any given day at finals.Pretty open this year which is good for all fans. Bring it on.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
If Sydney played at SCG, their actual home ground, then it might be different....ANZ is like an away match for us, we play there as much as any other team. It's like when teams have their interstate games but host home. its not their home ground but its called 'home'. Reason for Collingwood's streak is we play crap at ANZ, and play worse at MCG hence Collingwood's record. Add to that Collingwood have been up there in recent years. We seem to have fixed up the MCG record now, but ANZ is still not our preferred ground. Think I'd rather play at Patersons...
Slane
Guest
Port definitely have more finals experience than Richmond. But the Tigers did win convincingly against Port at AAMI earlier in the year. Would be a good game I reckon.
Slane
Guest
All four of the top 4 teams have lost to the the teams in the lower half of the 8 this season. I'm not convinced the gulf is as big as you think it is.
Brian
Guest
True if Brisbane were to somehow win at Skilled Freo would host Geelong and whoever came 6th would be a good chance to play Geelong in Melbourne in Week 2.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Finally the Richmond Cup takes centre stage.
Max Opray
Roar Rookie
If you continue the sentence you've quoted it goes on to say "Port, with its dismal Melbourne record". One of the key points here is home ground advantage - Port have been sensational this year at home, particularly when they dismantled Sydney and the Pies in successive weeks. As you say, they are a young side with nothing to lose, but the flipside of that is they may feel they've already exceeded their own internal expectations for the year and are probably happy with just making the finals. They had a pretty soft draw having finished so low last year, and are still probably a couple of years away from being capable of doing damage come finals time. I love the way they play though so hopefully they surprise a few teams this year.
Max Opray
Roar Rookie
You're spot on about Sydney at ANZ being Collingwood's preferred opponent, but keep in mind the top four isn't set in stone yet either. Hawthorn still has to beat Sydney to secure top spot, and the other results have to fall the way people are expecting as well.
Edan Nissen
Roar Rookie
Usually I would agree with you, and while it does take a miracle or two the gulf between the top 4 sides and the rest of the comp is pretty big.
Edan Nissen
Roar Rookie
It's not like they wouldn't be training otherwise. It's sport at an elite professional level. These guys train on a daily basis until seasons end. Seeing as the season isn't over, they still have to train for it. Richmond are inexperienced finals campaigns, that could weigh heavily.
Franko
Guest
"What would Collingwood and Richmond prefer? Port" Ok, great. We have already knocked off Collingwood and probably have more finals experience than Richmond. We have nothing to lose with this young side. Most important thing is beating Carlton this week in the black and white prison bar and taking some form to the finals.
Winston
Guest
Miracle B isn't all that impossible actually.
Steve J
Roar Guru
Carlton or North would need a miracle not to make the finals if they both lose this weeks games Miracle A - Brisbane to win at Skilled Miracle B - Power to win by 1 point only and Adelaide to beat West Coast by 10 goals + Miracle C - West Coast to win by 20 goals against Adelaide (or Carlton to lose by 10 goals + and West Coast to win by 10 goals +) Goog form is everything and both Collingwood and Richmond would want to win coming into the finals. You need to start playing finals footy now if you want to continue past the first week of September, and both teams would know that Carlton and Port will be doing just that this weekend.
A Mans Not A Camel
Guest
Statistically you are correct, but I think the flag is winnable from anywhere - all it takes is peak performances for one additional week than the top 4 teams. Just because history shows the top 4 win the flag means zero, in the end the best team over the period of finals footy will take the flag.
Riddos
Guest
There's more to it then form. Richmond, having locked up a finals spot and unlikely to push for top 4, trained hard right up to the day before the Carlton game. Building towards being at peak fitness for the Finals.