The first Group 1 of the 2013/14 season is upon us, and while many had a legitimate problem with the elevation of the Memsie Stakes from its previous Group 2 status, its arrival is more exciting for it.
Recent history suggests there’s a greater than 50 percent chance we’ll be seeing the 2013 Cox Plate winner contesting tomorrow’s edition.
Last year’s Memsie produced three subsequent Spring Group 1 winners, including the Melbourne Cup and Emirates Stakes.
Class always wins out in a Memsie, and it’s either a top-notch seven furlong or 2000m weight-for-age horse that gets the job done.
Atlantic Jewel is the headline act and even-money favourite, an unbeaten potential superstar and the owner of some breath-taking wins.
Anyone who saw her Wakeful Stakes win in 2011 still cries themselves to sleep over the decision not to run her in that year’s Cox Plate instead.
Not seen since winning a weak All-Aged Stakes with ease in the autumn of 2012, the word out of the Mark Kavanagh camp has been extremely bullish once more.
We’ll see a much bigger and stronger mare, as expected, and according to trackwork reports, the same or improved acceleration.
Drawn to sit wherever jockey Michael Rodd wants to be, she shouldn’t have too many excuses upon her return.
More so than usual as we approach the spring carnival, all racing fans are desperate to know where the four year olds sit in the weight for age pecking order.
It’s a Dundeel is the marquee name among last season’s three-year-olds, is in the top two or three in Cox Plate betting depending where you look, and will start as second favourite here.
His only failure was in the Vic Derby last year, and he was very good first up last campaign behind Pierro and Rebel Dane.
Yet to be seen publicly, his heavyweight clash with Atlantic Jewel will have long-lasting repercussions and provide plenty of material for Justin’s Monday review.
Super Cool is something of the forgotten horse with his glamour girl stablemate stealing all the headlines, but is an exciting prospect in his own right.
Three-year-olds don’t win Australian Cups without being exceptional as a rule, but is he ready to figure in the finish here?
Ajeeb won’t have any challengers for the lead, and can give a sight as he did in the P.B Lawrence, where he ran an honest second to Puissance de Lune.
He looks a very nice horse in the making, and Mick Price is surely eyeing off the Caulfield Group 1 handicaps, the Rupert Clarke and Toorak for him.
Happy Trails and Second Effort ran second and third respectively in this race last year, so it would be good to see both run well again to give an early indicator as to how this spring is going to stack up compared to last.
This edition appears a couple of lengths stronger, so it’s hard to see either taking it out, although it’s worth noting that the trainer of Happy Trails, Paul Beshara, thinks he’ll win it.
While not quite a weight-for-age galloper yet, he’s one of the genuine sprinter-miler’s in the field, and is sure to give a good account of himself.
Fiorente put in the one of the most talked about runs of the Sydney autumn when resuming over this distance in the All Aged Stakes, savaging the line late.
Like many Gai Waterhouse first-up runners, he’s had the two trials, as he did on that occasion. He’ll be forward enough to have a say if she wants him to be.
Luckygray has found himself in trouble or been in unsuitable races in his Melbourne starts. Finishing next to him in the Aurie’s Star was Ferlax, finding the line well from last.
Both have question marks on their class at this level, and have something to prove to the doubters.
Green Moon, Seville, My Quest For Peace and Silent Achiever will all look to be running on with an eye to longer races, and while one of these could run a bottler into fourth or fifth, it’s difficult to think they’ll be in the placings.
What a race this is going to be, with the replay to be watched many, many times over the weekend. I couldn’t back Atlantic Jewel at the current odds, but I certainly don’t want to bet against her either.
Selections
1. Atlantic Jewel
2. Happy Trails
3. Fiorente
4. Ajeeb
The Golden Rose is quickly becoming one of the best races in the country, and all the major players, with the exception perhaps of Drago, are in action tomorrow.
The Run to the Rose shapes as a deep race of many chances.
Va Pensiero won the San Domenico on his merits, beating Cluster and Windjammer by less than a length. All three start in double figures here.
Golden Slipper place-getter and Golden Rose favourite, Sidestep, the unlucky runner out of that particular lead-up, is the easing favourite but could be the best horse in the field and win accordingly.
Cluster looks the value of those runners. Anthony Cummings can get them home at odds, but who knows what to make of his claim that his colt is the best three-year-old in the country.
Eurozone and Dissident ran the quinella in the Rosebud. The former keeps doing enough to win every time he steps up a level, while the latter has a touch of class but might already be looking for further.
Zoustar has a boom around him and should be right there for Chris Waller, and the best backed with Sportsbet has been Napayshini, $11 into $8.
Ike’s Legacy and Into the Red could have something special about them, while Equator, the forgotten Waterhouse runner, could be the ‘War’ of this field. Criterion, which has continuously raced against he best, can’t be left out of calculations either.
Selections
1. Cluster
2. Sidestep
3. Eurozone
4. Zoustar
The winner of the Golden Rose could well be running at Caulfield though, albeit as a maiden, in the McNeil Stakes.
Everything about Fast ‘N’ Rocking screams big field, hot pace, and 1400m, which the Golden Rose will surely provide.
He doesn’t even need to necessarily overcome a crack field tomorrow to prove it, although victory would almost secure him favouritism and give his army of supporters some good cheer in the process.
I sense that if you back him all campaign from this point on, you’ll be up rather than down at the end of it.
Miracles of Life has made a mess of all opposition in her short career, but this might be her toughest test to day given the conditions of the race and awkward barrier.
She bolted in during a recent trial over a couple of handy types and hasn’t lost any admirers over her break. Will the fairytale story continue?
Tony Vasil thinks Prince Harada might be the best colt he’s trained, which is saying something considering Elvestroem and Haradasun were under his care! Tomorrow we find out if he can live up to those wraps.
Il Cavallo was a black booker from the Vain Stakes where Fast ‘n’ Rocking was desperately unlucky, fighting on valiantly after working hard on the speed. While this may not be his race having drawn poorly again, he’ll be winning something shortly.
Pyrrolic stays under notice due to an impressive debut win back in May, while Gai Waterhouse has chosen this for Divine Calling ahead of the Run to the Rose, and must be respected.
Selections
1. Fast ‘N’ Rocking
2. Miracles of Life
3. Prince Harada
4. Il Cavallo
Haradasun
Guest
AJ and Ferlax!! good times!!
GW
Roar Pro
This doesn't belong here, but is anyone else getting crapped off with a number of Sydney jockeys on horses in sprints that go straight to the front out of the barrier, then the jock takes hold and sits in behind the pace, only to run second to the horse they let lead? Other than Rain Affair, so many Sydney front runners have won in the past few weeks, so these guys should not be giving up the lead so easily unless up against a Karuta Queen or Chance Buy type of horse that will lead at all costs. No doubt trainers are trying to teach their horses to relax and perform better in the long run, but when you have your last $50 on them and they run a really nice second, it's no good to me.
Bondy
Guest
I've marked AJ at about 5/4 she's unders currently at evens I dont want her being thrashed first up, ironically she's the only horse to get near BC time wise for the past three years at most journeys. The rail is out 6 mtrs at Clfld so horses on the speed should hang on or backmarkers should be disadvantaged . Run to the Roses, laying Sidestep (set weights next time) and Zoustar, Eurozone looks beautifully weighted and should win today and go into the Golden Rose the Fav. Ajeeb should win the Clfd Gns Justin a nose beaten by Puissance, handy form. Good luck on the punt lads.
Cameron Rose
Expert
All good stuff there Andrew. The sprint is a very open affair for mine, and your points on Undeniably are excellent. Similar for Yosei, she won't know herself with this weight in this grade, and her first up run last prep is enough to win this if she gets the breaks (rare for her admittedly). Jolie Bay might just be too good, but she's not well weighted. If she wins, she's probably the real deal. Agree on Strawberry Boy, too good anyway and drawn to dominate the race.
Andrew
Guest
star fashion over the odds in race 1, its basically a class 1 of promising horses, many come of maiden form, just as she does. tried hard on debut, but you could see her flounder in heavy going. her mother elegant fashion was very classy, but a wet track duffer. flash of doubt is a 1000m specialist who is going well at present and the best weighted horse here on ratings and gets a cosy run and is hard/fit and overs at $16's in a race where 2 faves step up in class considerably off prior runs. mosse diva has a simple formula to her form. 1400m, dry track, light weight. she is a dual sat grade winner in such circumstance. get across from draw easily with stablemate other on-pacer drawn just outside her. strawberry is just too classy for this lot and wins rather comfortably. undestimation gets a cheap run from draw and isnt hopeless for a place and form is better than reads last autumn when regularly with big weights and tried over a trip, but best form at 1400m undeniably is good ew bet and is all class with WFA form around whtiefriars and typhoon tracy at his best. injuries struck down since, but he last prep last summer was very good and some good caul runs in similar grade and 4th/5th placings in oak pate and newmarket suggest he is surely competitive in this lower grade race.
paulywalnuts
Guest
Mosheen was one of the better fillies we've seen in recent years and AJ absolutely toyed with her. Sometimes its not just who they beat but the manner in which they do it. This is a special animal.
Andrew
Guest
i very rarely miss a meeting at caul and would be shocked if this is correct. i recall descarado has won there twice, more joyous twice. aqua damore but that was more than 5yrs ago anyway. and mot much else. she had had a few placings tribal rock ran 2nd to sertorious, kabayan ran 2nd last year in the mc neil. im probably missing one or two but would love to see the full stats on this (appreciate you are just 'passing on a message')
Trent Masenhelder
Roar Guru
On face value Nash's ride on Rain Affair would be well worthy of a place in the "slaughter files". However, in his defence, trainer Joseph Pride did say before the race he made it perfectly clear that he wanted Rain Affair lengths in front topping the rise, not just half length in front and save him for a sprint home. His plan was to break the hearts of the opposition but unfortunately this only broke the heart of Rain Affair. I'm sure they didn't bank on Streama taking them on. So as bad as it looked, Nash was only riding to instruction. He'd have been crucified for holding him up and getting beaten. Case of damned if you do, damned if you don't perhaps?
Trent Masenhelder
Roar Guru
I just interviewed Mark Kavanagh on radio and while he didn't give too much away, I feel even more confident about Atlantic Jewel's chances. I got the feeling he's pretty confident but being guarded. And rightly so given the length of time she's been away from the races and the outstanding field she's up against. I actually think we might see something pretty special tomorrow. If she does win, let's not underestimate how good the achievement will be. Firstly, not many come back from tendon injuries (certainly not at the level they were at pre-injury). And 16 months is a very long time to be off the scene. Then there's the opposition she must beat. It's such a deep race. Group One winners all over the place and some handy, fit, in-form middle distance gallopers. 'Kav' told me she's not a normal horse...the way she recovers from her races, the way she eats up, her manner, her professionalism, etc. We could be on the verge of witnessing something pretty special. Bring it on.
Haradasun
Guest
I heard that said Gai has had a record of 10 winners from 55 attempts at Caulfield or some such over the last 5 years (courtesy of ticking all the boxes), which isn't bad, so despite people saying Gai can't win in Melbourne the stats at Caulfield would say otherwise. Some more food for thought.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Also, you're far too sensible Cam. But more seriously, put a small quaddie on with a few one-outs, and then a wider one - if you're having AJ beaten, anything could win!
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Hehe! She's a gem. People forget too easily ;)
Cameron Rose
Expert
Great last line there Rob, and it is certainly food for thought. I love putting on long-term doubles at this time of year, a few a week for a bit of fun. Haven't gotten one up in years of course, since Elvestroem / Makybe Diva at 225-1 in fact. The year earlier was Mummify / Makybe Diva at 180-1, and I was thinking "how easy is this!" Haven't gone close since... Jet Away into Royal Empire is one I've done that I'm keen on.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I agree that Ajeeb will be thereabouts in the finish, although I don't see him as a winning threat. Class always beats the fit horse in this sort of event. I see his main job as giving us a link between PDL and the rest of the Memsie field. Is certainly a decent place bet. I'm a bit Cool on Super at this early stage, and I'm not really sure why. I'll be watching him with interest. Agree with all posts on Happy Trails not quite being up to this level, but he should slot in up front somewhere, and he does have a turn of foot. The lack of speed in the race, plus wins in the Feehan and Emirates (with 58kg) has him a very good place chance here.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Haha, I love Tristan's love of this horse! Seldom do I back anything at under $3 or $4, so I won't be playing on her. The only question is whether she's a one-out to come home in the quaddie. To offset Kav's words, plenty of trainers have talked down expectation resuming in a race like this, but class is class and she'll win if good enough.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Loving the debate over AJ's prospects, all points are valid and it's part of what we love about racing. The ride on Rain Affair last week was ridiculous, it's almost a forget run, and he wins that if ridden more conservatively. In a sit and sprint, it's AJ's turn of foot that should see her win if Rodd can get her in the first four or five, which I think he will. The more I think about it, the more I like Fiorente for any upset though, similar to Haradasun above (confusing name if we ever want to reference the real Haradasun!!).
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Nice addition here Justin. Very exciting.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
I don't think she's a massive risk. She's a risk, and that's why she's at $2 instead of < $1.3 ;)
Haradasun
Guest
I have to also echo sentiments about how exciting it is to have spring racing back!! Massively looking forward to tomorrow! I have it on good authority that Will Sinclair has already pencilled in Will's choice in the last in Brisbane as his get out of stakes backup. I have no idea why though. I am firmly in the AJ camp here. I just think she wins. The swoopers won't catch her and I have doubts about Ajeeb and PDL form out of that race (slow finishing time of 36.24). Admitedly he went hard early but I will be very surprised if AJ et al don't finish right over the top of him. Super Cool, IAD, Fiorente all have some acceleration not to mention Happy Trails as well can sprint. I agree though that HT isn't a genuine G1 horse though. Great start to the Spring, can't wait to see it all unfold.
Haradasun
Guest
Rain Affiar was murdered in that ride though. He should still provide a solid gauge for Atlantic Jewel. I certainly can't see anything running past her and most of the favourites in the Memsie are backmarkers. I will also be watching Ferlax with interest. He is a solid horse and has the benefit of a run under his belt. And at 50-1 I won't be complaining if he runs a cheeky place. From a betting point of view I think Fiorente is the value here.