Sydney and Geelong will play the AFL grand final on September 28. There, I’ve said it.
Just like before the first round, the 10th round, the 22nd round, everyone has an opinion on who will win the flag. Well, with just three weekends of football to play before the grand final combatants are decided, I’m making my call now.
You may well laugh, you may agree a little or a lot, or perhaps – particularly if you are a supporter of any of the other six finalists – you will vehemently disagree. But here is reasoning behind my prediction.
Starting tomorrow night with Hawthorn versus Sydney, and I’m going with the Swans to cause somewhat of an upset against the minor premiers.
Just which team got the most upside out last week’s clash is debatable. The Swans, with a number of their best players on the sideline, would have been buoyed by staying within a couple of kicks of the Hawks.
Hawthorn would have been happy with the way they worked their way into the game and overpowered Sydney, on the Swans’ turf.
The Swans will have important ins with Dan Hannebery and Nick Smith, and coach John Longmire will be tempted to add the pace of Lewis Jetta, but, there is some talk Kurt Tippett will miss again.
All the talk on the other side of the fence is about Buddy Franklin missing through suspension, but, in the past 14 games Buddy has missed, the Hawks have won 13, and the only loss was against their nemesis Geelong, last season.
It should be the now typical, tight and tough, Sydney-Hawthorn game (similar to the Sydney-West Coast matches of the mid 2000s) tomorrow night, and while the Hawks have the class, I’m going with the Swans, just, in a typically tight finals’ clash.
It was more than eight years ago that the Dockers stunned Geelong at The Cattery. That nine-point win is the only time (albeit in only 13 clashes) Fremantle have won down at Geelong.
On Saturday they get their best chance in some time to double that winning record, and at least will take a number of very fresh players into the game having rested a truckload last weekend.
They may have a woeful record there, but the Dockers won’t fear a September clash with the Cats having ended Geelong’s season in the first week of finals last season.
The Dockers, like the Swans, play a brand of football suited to the finals, and while coach Ross Lyon has played down the significance of playing at Skilled Stadium, there is no doubt it plays a major role.
Geelong were far from their best last start against Brisbane. Credit to the Lions, but after Hawthorn won on the Friday, and Fremantle opted to rest so many on Saturday, the Cats were really playing for very little.
There still would have been some things which Chris Scott would have been far from happy about, but better for it to happen last week in a game which meant zero, than this week.
Geelong are not impossible to beat at home, but I’m tipping they will win this week.
That means, by my predictions, Sydney and Geelong will get the week off and advance to the preliminary finals.
Also on Saturday, Collingwood meets Port Adelaide, and while I admire what the Power have done this year, I think their season might come to a swift end against the Pies.
Collingwood have been hot and cold in recent times but they have players who know what it takes to win finals, and I expect guys like Scott Pendlebury, Dane Swan and Dayne Beams to be truly stepping up this Sunday.
Port did beat the Pies in Round 14 in Adelaide, but their last win against Collingwood in Melbourne was back in 2007.
On Sunday, the big one – Richmond versus Carlton.
They will have the nerves and expectations of being in the finals for the first time since 2001, be playing against a bitter rival in Carlton, a team which has won 10 of the past 11 clashes between the teams, but I still believe the Tigers will win this one and advance to a semi-final clash with Hawthorn a week later.
Carlton fell into the finals courtesy of the AFL’s ruling with Essendon, and their one-point win over Port Adelaide last weekend. If they had lost that they would have finished 12th.
They do have the knowledge that they beat Richmond just three weeks ago, but the Tigers will be primed for this. This is their time, and their youngsters won’t freeze on the big stage.
So that leaves my semi-finals as Hawthorn versus Richmond and Fremantle hosting Collingwood.
While the Tigers have belted the Hawks in their past two outings, if these two met in a semi-final, I’d go with Hawthorn.
Buddy would be back, and having been on top of the ladder all year, it would be a wasted season if the Hawks didn’t move on from here.
The Tigers would make it a great contest, but led by Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis, I’d see Hawthorn just getting home.
At home in Perth, I’d also go with Fremantle to end Collingwood’s season.
The Dockers have had just one loss – that memorable one against Essendon earlier this season – in their last 17 games at Patterson Stadium, and I’m tipping them make if 17 wins from the past 18 games at home.
So we now have the Swans meeting Fremantle in Sydney and Geelong hosting Hawthorn.
The only time the Swans have hosted Freo at ANZ Stadium was back in the 2006 preliminary final when the Swans were clearly a better side than the Dockers. That’s not the case now though with little separating the two clubs.
The Swans have won five of six finals played at ANZ Stadium, their only loss coming against eventual premiers Brisbane back in 2003.
With a surprise move of Adam Goodes as their secret weapon sub coming off the Swans’ bench, I’m tipping a home victory.
And then we have the Hawks v Cats. The grand final prediction of most. It would be a tough, tight, brutal, and entertaining match, and call it the Kennett Curse or not, I think the Cats will extend their streak over the Hawks to 12 wins in a row.
So, there you have it (and I’m sure everyone agrees), it will be a Geelong versus Sydney grand final.
And the winner will be …. I might just wait a couple of weeks and see how these predictions are panning out before I put my neck on the line again.
Matt
Guest
The dream is still alive and Geelong will have a big game this weekend
Matt
Guest
make that 0/4
Jacques of Lilydale
Guest
Yep Maddy, that's what happens when you decide with a hunch rather than your head. Hawthorn finished on top, a game and percentage clear of Geelong, beat the swans twice through the year, (now three times this year) Sydney is nowhere, Geelong have slipped but can regroup. Hawks in the box seat, may have Geelong to beat in a prelim to get to a GF,that game will be worth going a long way to see, they'll be sending Jeff Kennett to Manus Island to get him out of the way. Hawthorn are deserved favourites and should lift Kennett's curse finally this year to play in a GF.
Jacques of Lilydale
Guest
YEP Brian +
Maddy
Guest
Your not doing so well with your predictions are you! 0/3 so far...
Dreg
Guest
Whilst sydney vs geelong is still possible as a grand final you got all your tips wrong for this weekend so far, just carlton and richmond left to play tomorrow. :D
Stewie
Guest
As a Melbourne based Swans supporter, I can reasonably say that we are of a much higher calibre than the Sydney based ones. I freely acknowledge that we haven't been the best side this year, mostly due to injury and the odd shocker (see game against PA). Perhaps more importantly, we haven't won a game against the rest of the top 4. We have at times been up to that standard, but have just been fading away.
Jacques of Lilydale
Guest
Hawks your preferred match up!!!! You've been rolled by Hawthorn three times this year, absolutely outrun and outplayed by their mid field. Swans nowhere against a formidable opponent that has goers all over the ground. Would love to play you guys again in the GF but you're out in straight sets.
Jacques of Lilydale
Guest
I think you were just outplayed by a better team Livvi. Swans nowhere this year
New York Hawk
Guest
Yep, absolutely agree. That is why it must be a Cats vs Hawks GF and I will be barracking for the Cats in every match until then. It will have an amazing chance to be the greatest GF of all time if it happens.can you imagine the build up???
Hamish
Guest
Yes, The extra million dollars in the salary cap certainly helps with the team spirit, that's for sure. Plus preferential treatment on the gap between games and anything else the game can throw in to try to get dodgy Sydneysiders half interested in the Mexican code of football. I find the supporters at matches nice enough but remarkably simple minded - "We won the GF last year, so we are the best team. Why are we losing now?"
Edan Nissen
Roar Rookie
The only way this is now possible is if the Cats lose to Freo in Geelong and then Sydney beats Freo in Perth (after beating Carlton or Richmond) and Geelong beats Hawthorn (continuing the Curse) after beating Port or Collingwood. Hindsight is 20/20, but still, you put yourself out there saying that Hawks were going to lose to Sydney.
Brian
Guest
Geez the way these Swans supporters talk its a wonder they don't win the flag every year. What happened to the Bloods spirit in 2011 when brittle Hawthorn thrashed you, or for 70 years between 1934-2004. Am really sick of this Sydney spirit crap they get a free ride with the salary cap, the fixture etc. of course they're going to challenge every year. People who are constantly amazed by why the Swans (and Melbourne Storm btw) really do amaze me.
Cat
Roar Guru
And if Hawks do meet Cats in GF and the Cats win the pressure will grow on Hawthorn tenfold, the excuse that you'd trade a bunch of H&A wins for the 2008 GF will be gone. As much as it makes me nervous, I want a Hawks v. Cats rematch for a chance to atone for that bitter disappointment.
Penster
Guest
2012 was Hawks big chance to win the GF. I can't see Sydney getting up against the Hawks this Friday tho although, as someone correctly pointed out, they bomb in big games, but I reckon that's behind them. Have played incessantly with the AFL ladder predictor and come up with a Hawks v Geelong GF each time. Would love to see Freo get up against Geelong - has a finals team ever had so much stacked against it than Freo this weekend? Wouldn't back against Geelong with the massive Kardinia advantage and the list. Love to see Port take it up to Collys but the big men in black and white should prevail. Carlton ... seriously. North would have given Richmond a run for their money but the Blues will be cactus by the third.
New York Hawk
Guest
Agreed GAC, we have been useless against the cats in the last five years and I certainly don't expect us to beat you in the GF. But all those 11 wins in a row will count for something so much less than zero you won't even let yourself contemplate it if the Cats lose to the Hawks in the GF. Hawks have always had the pressure on them to end the curse - but if we meet in the GF, all the pressure that has been building up will be on you. All of it. And then some. Best you and your cohort hope the writer of this article is correct.
Livvi
Guest
First, I confess to being a completely biased and 100% red and white fanatic. That said, I don't froth at the mouth like some (Magpie, Bomber, Tiger, blues) fans do, and even Manage to say nice things about other teams when appropriate - which is never the case with Collingwood :) Seriously, Michael's scenario is the same an my own. Hawthorn is a brilliant side but brittle; when doubts set in it is almost visible in their play. I think last week they went out to smash us and establish a dominant mindset, whereas we rested a few and concentrated on structures, alternative scoring plays rather than winning, especially as a win could do nothing to change the following weeks fixture. We gave nothing away we didn't have to, learned some important facts about Hawthorn's set ups and generally took the most value out of the game. Another week of rest will freshen everyone, give Goodes and LRT a chance to play in the prelims, and have all the other team looking nervously over their shoulders that, despite injury after injury, just Will Not Go Away. We know what it takes to win when everyone says you will lose - just ask last years Hawks! The other teams in with a real chance; Hawthorn, Geelong and Collingwood (I think the Dockers are a year early, but watch out in 2014), have each succumbed on the last day of the season because of the pressure they found themselves under to win. No one but we Swans expects our team to win and the hype of the Melbourne media is not as distracting up there either. We may not win the big one but if we don't it will be because a better team outplayed us, not because we folded mentally. In the end, that might just be our winning edge. Sorry my first post was such a LONG one............... Go Bloods
brian
Guest
I disagree with most. Sydney are currently below the others. They may surprise and win tomorrow or even a prelim but cant see them beating any combination of the other 3 teams twice. Of the others Cats look strongest and have the best draw but Hawks have a point to prove and Freo the best coach in the land. The Hawks v freo prelim at the g would be hard to predict as would the winner against the cats a week later.
Cat
Roar Guru
Hawks have been consistent ... consistently losing to Geelong ;)
Dean
Guest
I think it's a great finals series looming. I think no matter who wins this weekend, it will be the top 4 at it again in the Prelim. Cats are probably the most likely to make the GF because even if they lose to Freo this week, they can beat Swans or Hawks away. Wouldn't want to be Hawks or Swans travelling to Freo for a Prelim. Freo might win through to the GF, but they won't beat any of the other 3 in the GF at the MCG, they'd probably still be whingeing that the game isn't played in Perth. Geelong have a very good recent record against both the Hawks and Swans, but that will count for nothing in Prelims and Grand Finals. Very exciting year of finals, with some epic battles between these top 4. The other 4 are wastes of space. If they do manage to scrape into a Prelim, they'll get creamed and their opponent will probably go on to win the GF because any other Prelim between the top 4 will be a fight to the death.