Remember those old battle cards we played as kids? Each one had a super hero or fighter aircraft, with various points for speed, power, range etc.
The cards went head to head and the superior ‘pack’ wins.
Well, if the All Black-Springbok Test tonight was a game of battle cards, the Springboks would win. Here’s why.
In recent hours I’ve come to think the Springboks might just win this one based on my battle card rating.
Of course, other factors like a very strong chance of rain will force more forward play, and more errors from the All Black line.
I also don’t believe that the scrums, under the new laws, are all about technique as I’ve said previously – power is now a game changer.
How do you put the ball in, hook and get the ball out if your scrum is going backwards? Very difficult.
Back to battle cards, considering possible wet conditions. While the starting XVs are evenly matched, the Bok bench appears far superior and will be the difference in the game (of battle cards and the Test) and that’s why I’m predicting the Boks to win by five points.
This is how they teams stack up in a battle cards game (of course you’re welcome to set me straight if you disagree, which is likely):
15. Israel Dagg vs Zane Kirchner
Dagg is reliable, faster and has x-factor. Dagg wins.
14. Ben Smith vs Willie Le Roux
Smith is a good finisher, Le Roux a playmaker. Le Roux wins.
13. Conrad Smith vs JJ Engelbrecht
No brainer, Conrad Smith wins for experience, talent and nous.
12. Ma’a Nonu vs Jean De Villiers
Very even, but Nonu has things on his mind. De Villiers is captain which gives him the win here due to the responsibility he carries.
He will try harder, and in battle cards the commanders are always trumps.
11. Julian Savea vs Bryan Habana
Savea is young, and strong but not as wise as Habana. The South African wing wins on experience and speed, and he has scored more tries.
10. Dan Carter vs Morne Steyne
Dan Carter wins for his attacking skills, strategic thinking and all round game (and because he is the highest Test scorer of all time, or soon to be).
9. Aaron Smith vs Ruan Pienaar
Aaron Smith wins for his speed, game changing x-factor and all round game.
8. Kieran Read vs Duane Vermeulen
Kieran Read for leadership responsibility, experience and talent. Commanders always trump anyway.
7. Same Cane vs Willem Alberts
Alberts wins for experience and power. Sam Cane is young and not battle-hardened this year. This dual emphasis how significant the loss of Richie McCaw really is.
6. Liam Messam vs Francois Louw
Difficult, but I give it to Louw. More all round skills and battle hardened. Messam is coming off a rest.
5. Sam Whitelock vs Flip van der Merwe
Whitelock is more mobile and matches van der Merwe in the line-out, but can der Merwe is a more physical and a superior scrummer.
Conditions will decide the battle between these two. I call it even.
4. Brodie Retallick vs Eben Etzebeth
Etzebeth by a mile, scrumming, line-outs, power… Retallick is close, but a better ranging lock than he is a scrummer.
I think conditions will limit his impact.
3. Owen Franks vs Janie du Plessis
Janie’s power verus Franks’ technique (not saying the other is lacking visa versa, but very close).
Owen Franks wins for being equal in the scrum but better all round.
2. Dane Coles vs Bismarck du Plessis
Steve Hansen made an error here. Coles will get monstered for size, technique and experience. His temper will also get him into trouble, and may even land him a card.
I expect Mealamu will make an early appearance. Bismarck wins by a country mile.
I expect Bismarck will capture a few tightheads from Coles too.
1. Tony Woodcock vs Tendai Mtawarira
Woodcock is coming off a rest but he is unquestionably the superior player. Woodcock wins.
So for the starting XV I make – head-to-head on battle card score – seven points New Zealand, and seven points South Africa, one even.
We go to the bench:
16. Keven Mealamu vs Adriaan Strauss
Strauss is superior in every aspect and could easily be in the starting 15 for the Boks. Mealamu is experienced but showing his age.
Strauss is younger, faster, and multi-skilled as a carrier, forager and scrummer. Strauss wins.
17. Wyatt Crocket vs Guthro Steenkamp
I have questions about Crocket’s technique but Steenkamp is no great shakes either by comparison. I make it even.
18. Charlie Faumuina vs Coenie Oosthuizen
Faumuina is good as a ball carrier, but Oosthuizen is more powerful, younger and better in broken play. Oosthuizen wins.
19. Steven Luatua vs Juandre Kruger
I rate Kruger a better scrummer and line-out jumper. He could easily be in the starting 15 for the Boks.
Luatua has an edge in broken play. Under the new scrum laws, Kruger wins.
20. Tawera Kerr-Barlow vs Jano Vermaak
Kerr-Barlow and Vermaak are similar players, but I back Kerr-Barlow’s smarts and all round skills by comparison. Kerr-Barlow wins.
21. Matt Todd vs Siya Kolisi
Evenly matched but I believe Kolisi’s broken play, his hunger and foraging abilities gives him the win.
22. Beauden Barret vs Pat Lambie
If Lambie has a good day, his kicking and game breaking skills are far superior to Barret, whom I regard as a journeyman, but more reliable.
Lambie wins (if he has a good day).
23. Charles Piutau vs Jan Serfontein
I think Serfontein is a player for the future, has speed in spades and x-factor. Serfontein wins.
So for the bench I make – head-to-head — New Zealand one and South Africa six, one even.
In the game of Test Rugby Battle Cards and in the Test at Eden Park, I predict South Africa to win by five.
jk
Guest
very good comment and you are indeed right. we can discuss endlessly what may have happenned if the ref wasn't an idiot but we will never know. AB loyalists will feel that we stood up more than enough to the inevitable bok powerhouse onslaught and that superior skill levels , movement and fitness would have won the day eventually. maybe so. but on the other i side the boks not only lost a player but their most destructive and outstanding player and will point to the one sided turnover battle as reason enough they could have gone all the way. who knows . ... but your comments are spot on. how much poorer would world rugby be without what the boks bring to the party? and any fellow kiwi that says we are not extremely anxious and nervous before a test like this to see if we can stand up and match the boks power early doors (will never dominate but try to match and therefore potentiall nullify is the goal) is full of it. however at what cost. typical of a heavyweight boks encounter we lost nearly 1/3 of the team (carter, savea, dagg, and sam cane presumably needed a blood transfusion post match). but the monster boks don't seem to get injured. what the hell are they made of? anyway , therefore as per your comments suggest the biggest positive for NZ was the performances of he relative kids who underwent the most pressure cooked baptism of fire possible in world rugby and none let us down. Barrett, cane piatau etc were all great, and some more established AB's stepped up to a new level - Read as a captain, Retallick, aaron smith showed quality under pressure he hasn't had before. these are things we are never really sure off for any young all black until they have faced the boks. unwittingly the SB's helped cement our confidence in a new generation. but also as you say - equally many boks will be better for it also (Etzabeth is only 21??? you must be joking) Bring on ellis park and 2 heavyweights going toe to toe. and lets pray we are not talking about referees at the end of that one
Chikwa
Guest
Ellis park I think the springbok fans are under estimating the all blacks. Dan Coles is not good enough . Sam cane is not as good as willem albert.. if mccaw plays he may be too rusty.All blacks need to strong at set piece to win this game.
WEST
Roar Guru
Well said. At last some understanding of high level test rugby. All Blacks vs South Africa. They are the best games, SA play with such drive and power. The hardest part for the All Blacks at the beginning of most Springbok encounters is just to absorb all the tension and pressure they apply. That is the toughest challenge. Once they have there nerves and adrenalin in control. They can start to put there game plan to use. And apply there own pressure. Fantastic rugby the Springboks played. It was a pity it ended up the way it did. That's typical with these high intensity matches. I was happy to see the SA really cranking and dealing to the All Blacks. That really shock them up. You can see it in the AB eyes and on there faces after the test. That this game has changed many of the players outlook and thinking of how a game is played and won. They will all learn from this test and use it as a building block for there careers. Thanks to South African rugby. SA contribute a hell of a lot to mould and shape the true meaning of what it takes to be a All Black. I have no doubt for the younger SA players that tests like this will also be useful for the future. The next test in SA will be a real battle. just need a ref who can handle the two packs going at it. Oh ..what did you think of Ben Smith. Not to bad aye.
Colin Kennedy
Roar Guru
nick, I don't begrudge the ABs this win and I'm happy to get a dressing down from somebody who actually reads the blog for what it is. The ABs are clearly the better team. The Springboks are up and coming, but they let themselves lose shape after the binning, whereas this All Black team would actually have responded to the challenge - losing McCaw, Carter and Dagg were hard blows too. The Boks did not respond and they let themselves down. They have much to learn about character (so do many Saffa and AB supporters actually). I hoped for a good game of rugby, with 15 on 15. We didn't get that, but that's rugby. You win some and you lose some.
nick
Guest
Whatever, Just accept your dressing down and get on with your life.
Colin Kennedy
Roar Guru
Jonty, I gather your mum wouldn't give you crayons to make your own pack of cards and you're acting out as a result? I'm guessing Jonty is a synonym for Joke? Your mother must be a very perceptive woman. There are two types of All Black fans -- obviously I know tons of fans – those who understand and appreciate rugby (the minority), and the groupies who are there to follow the All Blacks in the hope of meeting one of them and who is a an enthusiastic and uncritical follower (the vast majority). You are a groupie Jonty. A groupie, a troll and a joke -- but I mean you no ill will, I do hope you get to at least kiss and hug Beauden Barret as is so clearly your groupie wish. As concerns netball, it is actually a complex and interesting game. Just because it is played by women does not diminish it in any way shape or form. In fact I would like to see you play my daughter's team on the netball court. They're 11-year-old girls and they would wipe the floor with sexist imbeciles like you. The game, as a contest was over in the first half. How anybody can gloat about that win is beyond me. Take pleasure in notching up another All Black win, sure, but gloat?? I admit I don't know nearly as much about rugby as I would like, but writing about it -- getting it wrong most of the time -- has added an extra dimension to the way I think about rugby and how I watch it. That said, congratulations to the All Blacks (and genuine fans) on their win. They were really up for this game and were prepared to bring it with ruthless execution. It's the sign of a team made up of true professionals who take their work seriously.
Jonty
Guest
Bilwong dong whatever your name is 29-15 me nervous hahaha never
Jonty
Guest
Beauden Barrett not bad for a journeyman u clown shows u know crap about rugby go write about netball or something
DR
Guest
You too. Best of luck!!!
Colin Kennedy
Roar Guru
Thanks DR, I fully expect to be surprised. It was good for a laugh and most people took it with good humour, bar one or two :-) Now let the real games begin. I certainly do rate Barrett, while Lambie seems to have been a bit of a disappointment. I think coaches have killed his potential. Enjoy the game mate.
Lekker ding
Guest
You are all overrating savea habana won't even look back if savea is chasing him.I think springboks to win by 5 because they are a lot more focused and want it more than the all blacks.The boks have a greater hunger to win the rugby championship but for bz it is just another one because they almost win every year
DR
Guest
Haha. Nice write up Colin enjoyed that. :) Can't agree with a few particularly Barrett and you may be surprised by a few as might I. Just over an hour now!!
Gasman
Guest
LOL. Just read the dang article for what it is. Sheesh reading 80% of these comments was painful.
DR
Guest
Hehe. I do think the boks and a lot of kiwis under rate Coles. A fine player he will be. (still no Biz though) Proof will be in the pudding as they say!
allbok
Guest
Your article has put a massive smile on my face. Really enjoyed reading this. Now with Bok jersey on and my other saffa bud with his allblack jersey , we will walk down to the pub in Napier and go watch the game and may the best team on the day win. Have a good game all.
Paul from Melbourne
Guest
Hansen's got ticker alright. If it comes off he is a genius.
Jerry
Guest
He's no has been. His resurgence (after a fairly long lean patch, admittedly) in 2012 was one of the feel good stories of world rugby. Normally once a wing loses the try scoring touch, they never get it back (see Joe Rokocoko) and once Habana lost a step of pace (even though he's still very quick) it looked like he was just going to get worse, but he's scored 11 tries in the last two season, including being the leading try scorer in the Rugby Championship last year and I believe his effort in Dunedin won IRB Try of the Year.
dsat24
one on one cards is dumbing it down and well probably on Ewans list of things to do this weekend. They have their limitations as if you list up hard stats it gets pretty dry quickly and so this subjectivity masquerading as objectivity approach is really just recycled stuff from everyday this week. Fodder for the uninitiated really, and much in the same veneer depth approach that David Lord's WB coach comparison piece this week. If further proof needed it does seem to bring out some seriously misguided d-bags because this is about they can understand.
DilzfromHtown
Guest
Savea is a lot better than habana. Habana is a has been
chuck
Guest
Paul Hansen is going for the big picture with Coles show me what you got he has a lot of ticker and what better then throwing him against Bismarck who is a world class hooker , he Coles would have been picked on their strategies or game plan .