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Remember those old battle cards we played as kids? Each one had a super hero or fighter aircraft, with various points for speed, power, range etc.
The cards went head to head and the superior ‘pack’ wins.
Well, if the All Black-Springbok Test tonight was a game of battle cards, the Springboks would win. Here’s why.
In recent hours I’ve come to think the Springboks might just win this one based on my battle card rating.
Of course, other factors like a very strong chance of rain will force more forward play, and more errors from the All Black line.
I also don’t believe that the scrums, under the new laws, are all about technique as I’ve said previously – power is now a game changer.
How do you put the ball in, hook and get the ball out if your scrum is going backwards? Very difficult.
Back to battle cards, considering possible wet conditions. While the starting XVs are evenly matched, the Bok bench appears far superior and will be the difference in the game (of battle cards and the Test) and that’s why I’m predicting the Boks to win by five points.
This is how they teams stack up in a battle cards game (of course you’re welcome to set me straight if you disagree, which is likely):
15. Israel Dagg vs Zane Kirchner
Dagg is reliable, faster and has x-factor. Dagg wins.
14. Ben Smith vs Willie Le Roux
Smith is a good finisher, Le Roux a playmaker. Le Roux wins.
13. Conrad Smith vs JJ Engelbrecht
No brainer, Conrad Smith wins for experience, talent and nous.
12. Ma’a Nonu vs Jean De Villiers
Very even, but Nonu has things on his mind. De Villiers is captain which gives him the win here due to the responsibility he carries.
He will try harder, and in battle cards the commanders are always trumps.
11. Julian Savea vs Bryan Habana
Savea is young, and strong but not as wise as Habana. The South African wing wins on experience and speed, and he has scored more tries.
10. Dan Carter vs Morne Steyne
Dan Carter wins for his attacking skills, strategic thinking and all round game (and because he is the highest Test scorer of all time, or soon to be).
9. Aaron Smith vs Ruan Pienaar
Aaron Smith wins for his speed, game changing x-factor and all round game.
8. Kieran Read vs Duane Vermeulen
Kieran Read for leadership responsibility, experience and talent. Commanders always trump anyway.
7. Same Cane vs Willem Alberts
Alberts wins for experience and power. Sam Cane is young and not battle-hardened this year. This dual emphasis how significant the loss of Richie McCaw really is.
6. Liam Messam vs Francois Louw
Difficult, but I give it to Louw. More all round skills and battle hardened. Messam is coming off a rest.
5. Sam Whitelock vs Flip van der Merwe
Whitelock is more mobile and matches van der Merwe in the line-out, but can der Merwe is a more physical and a superior scrummer.
Conditions will decide the battle between these two. I call it even.
4. Brodie Retallick vs Eben Etzebeth
Etzebeth by a mile, scrumming, line-outs, power… Retallick is close, but a better ranging lock than he is a scrummer.
I think conditions will limit his impact.
3. Owen Franks vs Janie du Plessis
Janie’s power verus Franks’ technique (not saying the other is lacking visa versa, but very close).
Owen Franks wins for being equal in the scrum but better all round.
2. Dane Coles vs Bismarck du Plessis
Steve Hansen made an error here. Coles will get monstered for size, technique and experience. His temper will also get him into trouble, and may even land him a card.
I expect Mealamu will make an early appearance. Bismarck wins by a country mile.
I expect Bismarck will capture a few tightheads from Coles too.
1. Tony Woodcock vs Tendai Mtawarira
Woodcock is coming off a rest but he is unquestionably the superior player. Woodcock wins.
So for the starting XV I make – head-to-head on battle card score – seven points New Zealand, and seven points South Africa, one even.
We go to the bench:
16. Keven Mealamu vs Adriaan Strauss
Strauss is superior in every aspect and could easily be in the starting 15 for the Boks. Mealamu is experienced but showing his age.
Strauss is younger, faster, and multi-skilled as a carrier, forager and scrummer. Strauss wins.
17. Wyatt Crocket vs Guthro Steenkamp
I have questions about Crocket’s technique but Steenkamp is no great shakes either by comparison. I make it even.
18. Charlie Faumuina vs Coenie Oosthuizen
Faumuina is good as a ball carrier, but Oosthuizen is more powerful, younger and better in broken play. Oosthuizen wins.
19. Steven Luatua vs Juandre Kruger
I rate Kruger a better scrummer and line-out jumper. He could easily be in the starting 15 for the Boks.
Luatua has an edge in broken play. Under the new scrum laws, Kruger wins.
20. Tawera Kerr-Barlow vs Jano Vermaak
Kerr-Barlow and Vermaak are similar players, but I back Kerr-Barlow’s smarts and all round skills by comparison. Kerr-Barlow wins.
21. Matt Todd vs Siya Kolisi
Evenly matched but I believe Kolisi’s broken play, his hunger and foraging abilities gives him the win.
22. Beauden Barret vs Pat Lambie
If Lambie has a good day, his kicking and game breaking skills are far superior to Barret, whom I regard as a journeyman, but more reliable.
Lambie wins (if he has a good day).
23. Charles Piutau vs Jan Serfontein
I think Serfontein is a player for the future, has speed in spades and x-factor. Serfontein wins.
So for the bench I make – head-to-head — New Zealand one and South Africa six, one even.
In the game of Test Rugby Battle Cards and in the Test at Eden Park, I predict South Africa to win by five.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.