We’re set for a twos horse race in the spring championship for Sydney fillies. Join us from 1.30pm AEST for a preview live blog and post-race analysis for the Group 1 Flight Stakes.
The Flight Stakes over 1600m has drawn a field of just six runners because superstar filly Guelph has scared everything else away down to Melbourne.
Trainers and owners don’t believe she can be beaten but David Vandyke believes Arabian Gold can give her a run for her money and engages here.
The two met for the first time in the Group 2 Tea Rose Stakes three weeks ago.
Guelph was ridden cold the whole way but as they hooked into the straight, she cantered up to Arabian Gold before unleashing with her turn of foot to win by two lengths.
The markets say this race is already over with Guelph opening very skinny but she step up to 1600m here and according to her breeding, this should be her limit.
By Exceed And Excel, most of her sire’s progeny are 1200m horses.
She ran the mile in the Group 1 Champagne Stakes in autumn but that was one of her tougher victories when she was given the task of chasing down Fuerza.
On that day, she only got up by a head and it was one of her less convincing wins.
If Guelph is to be beaten, it will be by Arabian Gold. She ran first up in the Tea Rose when she was beaten by two lengths but her second-up record is perfect with two wins from two attempts.
By Dubawi, the distance additional 200m here will benefit her and she’ll be much fitter than her first run.
Both Guelph and Arabian Gold hold nominations for the Cox Plate and the winner will have to come under serious consideration if they win here.
Bound For Earth ran third behind the two market leader in the Tea Rose and was only beaten by three lengths. It was a good run by her because she boxed on admirably and was simply beaten by better horses.
On that occasion, she didn’t show much of a turn of foot but if she improves on that performance, she could potentially test others.
She’s Bella brings a different form line which isn’t quite of the Tea Rose’s quality but ran a very strong final 600m and could be worth throwing into exotics for a bit of value.
It’s too hard to go past Guelph here. She’s the class filly and most eyes will be on her to see whether she pushes on to the Cox Plate or not.
Alfred Chan’s Tips
1. Guelph
2. Arabian Gold
3. She’s Bella
4. Bound For Earth
Justin Cinque’s Tips
1. Guelph
2. Arabian Gold
3. Bound For Earth
4. Sensibility
Andrew Hawkins’ Tips
1. Guelph
2. Arabian Gold
3. Sensibility
4. Bound For Earth
Cameron Rose’s Tips
1. Guelph
2. Arabian Gold
3. Bound For Earth
4. Sensibility
Roar writers 2013 Spring Carnival tipping tally (five points if winning horse is tipped for first; three points if tipped for second; two for third and one for fourth):
After week seven
Cameron Rose: 24
Alfred Chan: 24
Justin Cinque: 20
Andrew Hawkins: 20
Margareta
Guest
David Cameron said speed - not ethnicity - should be" equally searching" when it came to the UK - was to blame after it was revealed yesterday. His shock resignation came just hours after the Prime Minister said he accepted her apology but was asking Sir Alex to" consider the issues that have been signed over the years". Mr Cameron said:" I think while I would commend what has happened in the eurozone about how to save Liam Fox's job.
racingtips
Roar Rookie
i am your avid reader before i got my long vacation,so im now back to be your follower,thank you for your great effort in giving us the best,fast reliable source for every one of us...
Alfred Chan
Expert
That's it for our coverage of the Flight Stakes. It was a soft win for Guelph who will now head to the Thousand Guineas in 11 days. I'll be back at around 3.30pm for our coverage of the Group 1 Epsom Handicap. Thanks Sportsbet for offering $2.00 on Guelph!
Alfred Chan
Expert
It's a long season!
Alfred Chan
Expert
Guelph wasn't really tested here but I think she would have been if Sensibility hadn't missed the jump. Sensibility missed the jump by 2L and still ran 1.5 behind Guelph. She'll win descent race soon.
Geoff Parkes
Expert
Well, that's as soft a G1 as you'll ever see... Definitely worth the effort to send Sensibility north, that was a nice, honest run. That's 2 Star stable wins from 2 runners. I'm assuming it gets more difficult from here.....
Alfred Chan
Expert
Snowden made a comment about Camerilla passing away. Camerilla is Guelph's dam and he mentioned how he hopes Guelph can step up and replace her. Was that a Freudian slip about Guelph's retirement plans?
Alfred Chan
Expert
With Kerrin McEvoy, "She's enjoyed that step up to the mile again." "Sure she was 3 deep, but she had the class to overcome it." "She's a real classy animal as we've all seen." "It's a real privilege to be part of her career." "We've got a job down in Melbourne with the fillies race and we'll take it from there."
Alfred Chan
Expert
With Peter Snowden. "They weren't going quick." "It was a track gallop." "To me, she had an exhibition gallop. That's all." "It's just the Thousand Guineas. She had an extended two year old campaign."
Alfred Chan
Expert
Guelph is now a three time Group 1 winner
Alfred Chan
Expert
No chance Arabian Gold goes to the Cox Plate on the back of the run. Maybe send her to the Thousand Guineas.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Fantastic run by Sensibility, She missed the start and made excellent ground out wide and looked a danger.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Guelph wins by 1.5L from Sensibility.
Alfred Chan
Expert
And we're off in the Group 1 Flight Stakes!!! Guelph jumps well, Sensibility missed it by 2L, She's Bella goes to the front from Arabian Gold and Refer, Guelph is 3 wide, fourth, Sensbility still last, She's Bella leads from Arabian Gold, Guelph still 3 wide, Guelph has no cover, Arabian Gold has the gun run, She's Bella still leads, Arabian Gold now stalk up, Here comes Guelph, Sensibility coming home very well, Guelph, Guelph, Guelph!!! Sensibility runs second. Bound For Earth gets third. Arabian Gold fourth.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Guelph the last to load.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Loading in now.
Alfred Chan
Expert
She's run at Randwick 5 times for 3 wins and 2 runner ups.
Alfred Chan
Expert
The Randwick track is rated Good 3. Guelph has run on Good ground 6 times for 3 wins and 2 runner-ups.
Alfred Chan
Expert
It would take a bold person bet against Guelph here. She'll need to break down to be beaten in my opinion.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Refer goes from maiden class to Group 1. Only average.