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We’re set for a twos horse race in the spring championship for Sydney fillies. Join us from 1.30pm AEST for a preview live blog and post-race analysis for the Group 1 Flight Stakes.
The Flight Stakes over 1600m has drawn a field of just six runners because superstar filly Guelph has scared everything else away down to Melbourne.
Trainers and owners don’t believe she can be beaten but David Vandyke believes Arabian Gold can give her a run for her money and engages here.
The two met for the first time in the Group 2 Tea Rose Stakes three weeks ago.
Guelph was ridden cold the whole way but as they hooked into the straight, she cantered up to Arabian Gold before unleashing with her turn of foot to win by two lengths.
The markets say this race is already over with Guelph opening very skinny but she step up to 1600m here and according to her breeding, this should be her limit.
By Exceed And Excel, most of her sire’s progeny are 1200m horses.
She ran the mile in the Group 1 Champagne Stakes in autumn but that was one of her tougher victories when she was given the task of chasing down Fuerza.
On that day, she only got up by a head and it was one of her less convincing wins.
If Guelph is to be beaten, it will be by Arabian Gold. She ran first up in the Tea Rose when she was beaten by two lengths but her second-up record is perfect with two wins from two attempts.
By Dubawi, the distance additional 200m here will benefit her and she’ll be much fitter than her first run.
Both Guelph and Arabian Gold hold nominations for the Cox Plate and the winner will have to come under serious consideration if they win here.
Bound For Earth ran third behind the two market leader in the Tea Rose and was only beaten by three lengths. It was a good run by her because she boxed on admirably and was simply beaten by better horses.
On that occasion, she didn’t show much of a turn of foot but if she improves on that performance, she could potentially test others.
She’s Bella brings a different form line which isn’t quite of the Tea Rose’s quality but ran a very strong final 600m and could be worth throwing into exotics for a bit of value.
It’s too hard to go past Guelph here. She’s the class filly and most eyes will be on her to see whether she pushes on to the Cox Plate or not.
Alfred Chan’s Tips
1. Guelph
2. Arabian Gold
3. She’s Bella
4. Bound For Earth
Justin Cinque’s Tips
1. Guelph
2. Arabian Gold
3. Bound For Earth
4. Sensibility
Andrew Hawkins’ Tips
1. Guelph
2. Arabian Gold
3. Sensibility
4. Bound For Earth
Cameron Rose’s Tips
1. Guelph
2. Arabian Gold
3. Bound For Earth
4. Sensibility
Roar writers 2013 Spring Carnival tipping tally (five points if winning horse is tipped for first; three points if tipped for second; two for third and one for fourth):
After week seven
Cameron Rose: 24
Alfred Chan: 24
Justin Cinque: 20
Andrew Hawkins: 20
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