Why David Warner is Australia's Ashes x-factor

"He has more off-field accidents than any other player in Australian sport, maybe apart from Todd Carney and Josh Dugan". Totally disagree. Apart from a swipe at Root (was never an assault), I wouldn't put Warner's indiscretions anywhere near many of the NRL and AFL players. Voicing his frustrations on twitter? Some on field banter with players from another team? Going to the races instead of club cricket? Petty stuff. He's never been in trouble with the law, done a DUI, been done for drugs, glassed or raped a woman. Warner comes WAY WAY WAY down the list.

I don't. I don't see him ever becoming consistent in Test cricket. He might do well enough to hold down a place, but he's just not that good a player.

It's a psychological blow if anyone does it. And that's the point - it's IF they do it. Saying that the selection of someone with a pretty modest Test record is so in advance is daft. Shall I say that England selecting four batsmen who average around 50 in Tests is one too? Because it's a bloody sight bigger one.

A New Zealand team that won the test in Hobart, bowling Australia out in the fourth innings on a seaming greentop where Warner carried his bat through the innings for a not-out hundred as his team-mates fell around him in just his second test where the next best individual score of the match was 56. Then the 180 against India where that score by itself bettered each of India's total innings (India being bowled out for 161 and 171 total, and Australia's total innings score only 369, so Warner had almost half of that. By contrast, the only hundred he's scored on a road where there were lots of runs scored was against the might of the South African pace attack in Adelaide. Despite getting his start as a T20 hitter - representing Australia in T20 before he'd even played a first class match - he actually has a very good allround technique to make runs at the highest level, and I expect him to get more consistent and become a very good batsman for Australia for years to come.

The difference is that Warner has shown he has the ability to make big scores at test and first class level. Unlike Finch, averaging sub-30 in first class cricket, and Bevan, who just never worked out how to handle extreme pace and bounce at test level. Warner was pigeonholed as a T20 basher and struggled to get a game in the strong NSW Sheffield Shield team, but when he finally did he scored lots of runs in a short space of time in first class cricket to earn promotion to the test team, and he then scored several very good hundreds at test level. So if Warner can use the Ryobi Cup to find some form to then carry into the early Sheffield Shield rounds before the first test, that can be a real positive for him. In contrast, a player who's shown they are a good one day hitter on flat pitches but never transferred that form into first class cricket can definitely have their one day form completely disregarded.

ChrisUK - That could be exactly why Warner scoring runs could provide a psychological advantage to Australia. If Clarke scores lots of runs they'll feel they can still bowl Australia out for decent totals by knocking off the others around him, but if a player who they fancy their chances against comes out and scores a lot of runs in the first couple of tests that could hit them harder. But at the same time, I think any psychological blow will have to be repeated often to have an effect. Warner could be 180 not out at tea on Day 1 at the Gabba, and at that point England would still fancy themselves to better whatever Australia get in their first innings when they get a chance. But if Warner kicks of the series with a big hundred leading to a big Aussie total, and Mitch Johnson manages to not only get picked, but get the ball bending back in at pace, breaking stumps and fingers along the way to skittling England. Then suddenly England leave the first test having been decimated by two players they loved laughing at to that point. That would probably be a bigger psychological blow than if Clarke scored a double hundred and Harris ripped through England. NOTE: I'm not saying this hypothetical situation will happen. Not that I wouldn't enjoy watching it unfold though...

His record at home is good. It's not in the stratosphere. Especially given it's largely against the seam bowling might of India, Sri Lanka and New Zealand.

We need a match up between him and Pietersen!

Top 10 averages opening pairs partnership (min 1000 agg): Hobbs & Sutcliffe 87.81 Stollmeyer & Rae 71.00 McKenzie & Smith 65.58 Fingleton & Brown 63.75 Rhodes & Hobbs 61.31 Hutton & Washbrook 60.00 Simpson & Lawry 59.93 Gooch & Atherton 56.84 Goddard & Barlow 56.44 Gibbs & Smith 55.24 Just do a Hobbs and Sutcliffe. 8x100 from 10 innings gives them an average of 80. Hobbs and Sutcliffe were together for 38 innings. Neil McKenzie and Graeme Smith could muster 65.58 from 27 innings. Information and knowledge is out there Nudge, you just have to THINK.

Good article We need Warner to score Shield runs and we need him in the Ashes series, no bones about it. Warner on song = match winner If he's not got his head switched on though, leave him out

Agree. I'll take 2/100, 6 out of 10 times.

Geez, I'd take 2/100 in 8 out of 10 knocks at the moment.

0/100 off 30, 8 out of 10 times. Hahahaha. Tell me the last time that happened in the last 130 years of test cricket. Another great laugh. But saying that ill take 0/100 off 30, 8 out of 10 times.

Pffft.

Oh dear the dreaded 'X-factor'.

Khawaja is closing in on a ton. He could well finish the Ryobi close to being the leading batsman as an OPENER ;) -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.

To win back the Ashes Australia needs 450+ in its first innings (batting 1st or 2nd) at a reasonable clip, say 4-5 sessions. They need solid opening partnerships, say 30 overs plus with 100+ on the board in as many innings as possible, 1st and 2nd. They don't need a whirling dervish with 2 spectacular knocks from 10 and the No3 facing a new ball in the other 8 innings. Chris Gayle is an ex factor and as useful a test player as 3 blokes on leave, regardless of his spectacular occasional mega successes. Unreliable...and the West Indies are still at the bottom half of the pole. My question is, do you want say 2 spectacular 100s or solidarity where you get 0/100 off 30 in 8 out of 10 knocks? -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.

Lets see the Shield form in 10 or so days. -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.

Keep Warner - after Clarke he's pretty much our most dangerous batsman (in the positive sense). For his sake though he'd probably want to make some runs in the early Tests.

England will be far more concerned about Clarke. Sure, Warner might come off, and if he does, good luck to him. Still not a massive physiological [sic] advantage if he plays, nothing like.