2013 Cox Plate: full preview and tips

The Melbourne Cup is the race that stops a nation, but the Cox Plate is the race that stops the racing purist. As Justin wrote yesterday, it’s the race where legends are made or, in some cases, confirmed.

My favourite Cox Plate moment has to be Makybe Diva’s win in 2005. It certainly helped that I was trackside, but who could forget the famous ‘wall of horses’, perfectly captured as such by racecaller Bryan Martin.

Glen Boss would become famous for his riding antics as well as his famed Group 1 ability, and on this day he gave an exaggerated look both ways before pushing the button on the great mare.

He couldn’t believe how easily she was travelling compared with all others under hard riding.

Will we have another iconic moment in the 2013 edition?

While the withdrawal of red-hot favourite, Atlantic Jewel, robs the race of a certain superstar quality, it makes it no less intriguing.

Several horses in the field have shown they can race handy as well as settle at the tail.

Who will go forward? Who will go back? How do we assess the international runners? The three year olds?

Let’s have a look at each horse individually.

1.Green Moon
Lloyd Williams and his team will be looking to take out their second major of the Spring after Fawkner’s successful Caulfield Cup, and this is the horse that could do it for them.

He hasn’t been seen since the Underwood Stakes for one reason or another, but did win the Turnbull Stakes last Spring third up, as he’ll be tomorrow.

He flew home first up in the Memsie Stakes, which suggested he had returned well and might have a race in him this campaign, but he’s never quite been a weight-for-age horse, despite starting favourite in this race last year.

He’s not in the initial lot of horses that you’d think was a legitimate winning chance, but you wouldn’t fall over if he won. Always be wary of a stable that’s flying.

2.Happy Trails
Arguably the most underrated good horse in the country, Happy Trails just keeps winning good races when least expected to.

His best is reserved for when he can settle back in the field and unleash his superior turn of foot, as he did to win the Turnbull earlier this month, but he can also run some very good races when taking a position handy to the speed, such as his fourth in the Underwood, beaten only a length by It’s a Dundeel and Atlantic Jewel.

Only one horse carried more weight than him in the Turnbull, and those that finished behind him that day were the likes of Fawkner, Dear Demi, Jet Away (1st, third and fourth in the Caulfield Cup) and Puissance de Lune and Fiorente, rivals tomorrow that he meets better at the weights.

Barrier two might not be his best friend by the time the race is run, but he can win this.

3.Fiorente
All five of this horse’s runs since arriving in Australia have been amazing, be it his second in last year’s Melbourne Cup, the incredible third behind All Too Hard in the All Aged in the Sydney Autumn, or his three eye-catching runs this campaign.

Fiorente appeals as one that has the turn of foot perfectly suited to Moonee Valley, as evidenced by his last gasp victory in the Feehan Stakes after being all but last on the turn. His wide barrier should be more of a help than a hindrance after eighteen races in less than 24 hours.

This guy is a serious racehorse, and is now comfortably ensconced in the top echelon of thoroughbreds in the country. Trainer Gai Waterhouse only has one of the Melbourne big three to her credit, but is getting better at systematically targeting them.

4.Foreteller
Vying with Happy Trails for that most underrated title, there are still question marks over his class against the very best, and seldom does he start at anything under double figure odds.

Still, he wins every three or four times he steps out, which is almost always at WFA, and this preparation he already has a Makybe Diva Stakes win over Puissance de Lune on his resume, as well as a second to the missing mare, Atlantic Jewel, in the Caulfield Stakes.

He was four lengths in arrears in the latter race, and drawing a line through It’s a Dundeel beating AJ in the Underwood, it’s hard to see him getting close enough to beat them all. He’s tough and honest though, and you could do a lot worse than taking his big place odds.

5.Side Glance
I must confess to not know a great deal about this British galloper, and of the horses we know in this country, he was five lengths behind Red Cadeaux in the Dubai World Cup over 2000m back in March, and all of his runs in 2013 have been at the highest level.

The best an international has done in a Cox Plate has been third, and with Side Glance having only one win to his name in the last two years, it’s hard to see him improving that record after having travelled halfway around the world to be here.

6.Seville
When we think of the last start Group 1 winners in this Cox Plate field, Seville may not be the first that comes to mind, but his win in the Metropolitan sees him as one of four who can claim such a title.

He’s been around for a while now, and despite a few duck eggs and 9’s in his timeline, he doesn’t put in too many poor performances. His second behind Green Moon in last year’s Turnbull confirms that he does possess quality, but it’s hard not to think that the Williams camp is using this as a top up for his main target, the Melbourne Cup.

7.Rekindled Interest
This is a horse that needs everything in his favour to win races, and rarely do the stars completely align for it to happen. He’s not without his share of talent though, and has finished in the top five at Group 1 level seven times, albeit without winning.

His last win was over two years ago, but in favour is that his only two wins outside maiden class have both come at the Valley, and he did run an unlucky third in the 2011 Cox Plate behind Pinker Pinker. If Dwayne Dunn had have made some different decisions on the day, he could well have won it.

One of half a dozen that you’d say couldn’t win.

8.Puissance de Lune
After his slashing Lawrence Stakes win in August, you probably would have got decent odds on this horse not scoring another victory two months later. He’s yet to run poorly this campaign though, despite Justin taking him to task after the Makybe Diva Stakes.

His Turnbull Stakes second is looking a lot better that it perhaps did on the day when he had the stigma attached of being a beaten favourite, and every drop of rain in Melbourne this week would have been welcomed by connections.

He surely goes forward from barrier eight, and I expect him to either lead or take a sit behind one of the three year olds. Possibly the toughest to beat under those circumstances.

9.Masked Marvel
Has been poking along okay up in Sydney at his last two starts, not winning, but making his presence felt despite some poor manners along the way.

If you’ve backed him for the Melbourne Cup, you’d be pleased enough at his seeing a decent turn of foot at the end of those races, but it’s hard to see his form against the inferior Sydney WFA horses standing up in a Cox Plate. While he’s a roughie in this as it is, he should probably be longer.

10.Mull of Killough
The second international in this year’s edition, he’s hard to get a line on. All we can say is that he’s only raced at Group 1 level twice, and couldn’t get closer than five lengths behind the winner on each occasion.

Frankly, it’s hard to see why he was invited, and harder still to see him winning. The trainer is bullish though, as the visitors always are.

11.It’s a Dundeel
Favourite for the Cox Plate, and quite possibly the best horse in Australia. He has to be a superstar to justify both of these claims, and he just might be. He was certainly a superstar three year old, and has barely put a hoof wrong in his four year old year.

Atlantic Jewel will go down in history with only one horse getting the better of her, and it was It’s a Dundeel in the Underwood Stakes. While he hasn’t raced since, which means he has to defy an incredible weight of history, Atlantic Jewel did, by beating Foreteller and Super Cool by an easy four lengths, confirm It’s A Dundeel’s form as the best around.

He has, of course, suffered a setback in the form of a foot abscess. Few are the Cox Plate winners that have had an injury-interrupted campaign. It will be a true mark of his quality if he can salute in spite of it.

12.Super Cool
Arguably the disappointment of the spring so far after high hopes were held for him, especially after his blistering return in the Memsie Stakes. So good was his performance, he wasn’t far behind Atlantic Jewel as the talking point in the aftermath of the race.

He followed it by being gone a long way out in the Feehan, but recovering enough to run fourth, then was ordinary or unlucky in the Turnbull depending on your perspective. After this, he was backed in to beat AJ in the Caulfield Stakes but couldn’t get close.

That all said, he’s far from the worst horse in it, and his best chance is to be ridden cold as he was in the Memsie. Could the racing Gods take from Kav with one hand, but give back with the other?

13.Atlantic Jewel
Scratched.

14.Long John
The first of the three year olds, and the best credentialed of them with five wins from his meagre seven starts, including the last start Caulfield Guineas.

It’s been thirty years since the winner of that race took out the Cox Plate, and it’s hard to know exactly where this season’s three year olds sit in relation to the older horses. Some are already questioning the quality of the crop.

Sure to press forward from barrier 11 to make full use of the light weight, it would be a surprise to see him settle anywhere further back than third or fourth. He’s as honest as the day is long, and should acquit himself extremely well.

15.Shamus Award
The second three year old is clearly the best maiden in Australia, and wouldn’t it be something if he could break his duck in Australasia’s championship? Don’t write it off.

He’s chased home the best horses in his age group at both two and three, but has particularly impressed with his last two efforts. His on-pace Stutt Stakes second is in the top handful of runs I’ve seen this season, while his Caulfield Guineas third, coming from last, highlighted his versatility and talent.

Being out of Snitzel he must be some query at the distance, but he might be our leader, and if he gets the trip in a slowly run race, he can put the frighteners up the rest of them at some point in the straight.

This Cox Plate, like many that have come before, will be an intriguing race of tactics, with many scenarios that could unfold. Almost every runner has some claims to victory, while all have a question mark over them for one reason or another. Rarely do we see a bunched finish in this race, but we just might tomorrow.

Selections
1.Fiorente 2.Puissance de Lune 3. It’s a Dundeel 4.Happy Trails

There is another Group 1 WFA race being run at Moonee Valley this weekend, in the form of the Manikato Stakes tonight.

Samaready is the deserving favourite after her breath-taking Moir Stakes win, and it’s hard to see anything from that race turning the tables. Buffering is one who could though, having pulled up lame and with a bruised hoof after a tough on-pace effort. He did beat the rest by more than two lengths despite these inconveniences.

The Hong Kong visitor Lucky Nine is the other clear and present danger in the race. We draw a line on him through Bel Sprinter, when the former pulverised the latter in the International Sprint in Singapore earlier this year. There is some suggestion that he may need the run, and he’s never seen ground worse than good, but whatever beats him will win.

Selections
1.Buffering 2.Lucky Nine 3.Samaready 4.Arinosa