Group 1 racing returns to Moonee Valley tonight with the running of the 2013 Manikato Stakes. Join us from 9.15pm AEDT for a preview, live blog and post race analysis.
Run over 1200m under weight-for-age conditions, the Manikato is the second of the three major sprint races in spring.
Samaready took out the first leg, the Moir Stakes a month ago. The Moir Stakes is run under the exact same conditions as the Manikato which is why it is no surprise to see Samaready well clear at the top of the market.
The rain has been unrelenting over the past few days in Melbourne, so the wet ground may require expert navigation and favour some more than others.
Samaready cruised home by four lengths in the Moir to firmly place one hoof on the title of Australia’s best sprinter. Not much has changed since that run and she comes in nice and fresh.
This will be just her third run this preparation and based on how easy she did it in the Moir, she has a target on her back as the one to beat.
Buffering rand second behind Samaready in the Moir Stakes and is again chasing his first Group 1 after running second six times.
Four lengths is a lot of ground to make up but the wetter the conditions are, the more they should suit Buffering.
He has raced on wet ground six times for three wins and a second. It’s an excellent record for a Queensland horse which spends the majority of its training on dry ground.
Because it was quite early in the season, the Moir Stakes was largely contested by Victorians. Tonight we get to see a few interstate travellers as we as the highly credentialed Lucky Nine who has come from Hong Kong.
Lucky Nine has won just about every sprint race there is to win in Hong Kong as well as claiming the Singapore Krisflyer, ahead of Bel Sprinter who also lines up here.
He has been a mammoth money spinner, collecting over $5million in prizemoney which is more than a sprinter can make in Australia.
Despite his excellent success, he has never actually won first up. Australian turf is considerably different to what he found in Hong Kong and Singapore. This is why we don’t often see the Cantonese horses fare as well as they do at home.
Sha Tin has a nice long straight and can best be compared to Flemington. The Manikato Stakes would be nice but Lucky Nine’s main focus should be the Patinack Farm Classic on the final day of the spring carnival. It won’t surprise to see him fill the placings though.
Australia’s most striking grey journeys down the Hume from Sydney for her first crack at a Group 1. She has been the most improved country comes off a win in the Group 2 Premier Stakes where she produced an effortless last to first run.
She runs well second up and over this distance but this is a big step up in class for her. Her racing pattern is not suited to Moonee Valley and he cause has not been helped by drawing the widest gate.
Nonetheless, she has not run a bad race in the past 12 months but a place looks more likely than a win here.
Rebel Dane steps up from handicap conditions after winning the Group 1 Rupert Clarke Stakes. He loses his regular rider with Glen Boss out suspended but as a horse that races on the pace, a win is not out of the equation.
The wetter the track is, the more suited he will be. Last time he ran on a heavy track, he was only centimetres away from beating Pierro in the Group 2 Hobartville Stakes.
On wet ground, Temple Of Boom looks a touch over the odds because he has an excellent record in the wet.
It’s a bit hard to go past Samaready. A heavy track me be a concern but to have won the Moir by four lengths is a pretty big deal.
Should you want to look away from Samaready, Sportsbet are offering a money-back special where if your horse runs second to Samaready you will receive a full refund.
The Manikato Stakes will be the final race of the night and be run at 10.00pm AEDT.
Alfred Chan’s tips
1. Samaready
2. Temple Of Boom
3. Buffering
4. Rebel Dane
Justin Cinque’s tips
1. Samaready
2. Lucky Nine
3. Rebel Dane
4. Arinosa
Andrew Hawkins’s tips
1. Lucky Nine
2. Samaready
3. Arinosa
4. Buffering
Cameron Rose’s tips
1. Buffering
2. Lucky Nine
3. Samaready
4. Arinosa
Roar writers 2013 Spring Carnival tipping tally (five points if winning horse is tipped for first; three points if tipped for second; two for third and one for fourth):
After the Geelong Cup
Justin Cinque: 52
Cameron Rose: 50
Alfred Chan: 48
Andrew Hawkins: 39
peeeko
Roar Guru
agreed, it was great to see BUffering get its group 1 - 1 million race as well
Shaun
Guest
I backed Lucky Nine, and I can't remember if I've ever felt so happy when my horse missed by a half-head. Go Buffering, you beauty. There is not a horse in racing history that deserved a Group One win more.
Anto
Guest
So, to the Cox. It will be run on a track which will have had another nine races on it. No rain predicted tomorrow. Will the footing hold up? Will the rails remain OK? [Yes, they are moving it out by 3m, so today's rails become tomorrow's 3-4 wide.] As Alfred said, the rails didn't work for many as a strategy tonight. The two three-year olds are widely expected to take to the inside and pace tomorrow's Plate. Based on today's results, I say that they get swamped, unless one of them runs the fastest race of its young life. Big sweep around the outside onto firmer ground by one of the bigger, older horses.
Scuba
Guest
Funny run Lucky Nine - couldn't go at the 400 but strongest on the line. Said here weeks ago that Browne is in the top echelon of riders. He is proving that, week in, week out.
Alfred Chan
Expert
This ends our coverage of the Group 1 Manikato Stakes. Buffering finally broke through at Group 1 level after running second, six times. The connections thoroughly deserved that but the run of the race was the Hong Kong raider who ran second, beaten by a short head. We're back to Moonee Valley tomorrow for the Cox Plate and'll be back here live blogging all the action! Thanks for joining us.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Moment Of Change ran fourth.
Alfred Chan
Expert
The final dividends were: 1st - 2. Buffering - $8.10 / $2.30 2nd - 1. Lucky Nine - $3.00 3rd - 8. Session - $4.50
Alfred Chan
Expert
Rebel Dane still isn't a WFA horse just yet.
Anto
Guest
Hmm, well isn't that interesting? You can win on a chopped up track at the Valley, but only if you're the better horse. The other interesting thing is that Buffering doesn't seem to have a "kick" - just a solid, consistent sprint. He was always beaten on the line. The track was good enough to let him run his preferred race, even after a whole programme before he started.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Samaready was never in it. She was pulling a lot after 400m and Dwayne Dunn had to restrain her. She never looked comfortable. Even when she got clear, she couldn't keep up with Sessions.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Lucky Nine probabaly produced the run of the race. The short Moonee Valley straight didn't suit. I'd expect Lucky Nine to now be favourite for the VRC Classic Sprint.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Buffering stayed on the fence the whole way. It hadn't worked for anyone all night but Buffering held on. When they swung into the bend, Shamexpress loomed up on Buffering's outside and may have headed him for a moment, Buffering fought back on the fence and gave a kick, Lucky Nine was about three or four of the fence and was storming home but Buffering gave one last kick and just held on by a short head.
Anto
Guest
Yes,well done Cam. Good work.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Buffering was purchased for $20,000 and has now won over $3million.
Anto
Guest
Alfred, all I had was the audio, not the video. How did the rails runners go, vs. those wider on the track? Interested to know how chopped up things got in close.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Didn't have things all his own way either. Price seemed to send the other one out to pester him, but he saw him off, and then Shamexpress went way too early. Lucky Nine's odds for the sprint on Stakes day will be halved.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Fantastic tipping from Cam Rose to keep him on top after being let down so many times. Cam now takes over the tipping tally going into tomorrow's Cox Plate.
Alfred Chan
Expert
The money is finally off his back. He has been the bridesmaid for so long and there was no horse in my mind more deserving of winning that than Buffering.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Nicely done, Anto. Outstanding run from Sessions.
Alfred Chan
Expert
With the winning rider, Damien Browne. "We're always confident, the team." "I was quite surprised they let me get away as long as I did." "At the furlong, he really dug in." "He just need to win that Group 1 and for him to do it tonight, it was fantastic."