The Bart and James Cummings-trained Precedence would add plenty to next Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup (3200m, Group 1, handicap). That’s of course if he makes the field.
In fact, after running quite well in the last three Melbourne Cups (eighth in 2010, 11th in 2011 and ninth in 2012) I think he can finish in the top eight this year. After all, he was so impressive when claiming the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m, Group 2, handicap) by more than a length on the weekend.
Yet even after winning his second Moonee Valley Cup, it seems unlikely that Precedence will make this year’s Melbourne Cup field. But he should be there.
Either Precedence goes to a career high and wins Saturday’s Mackinnon Stakes (2000m, Group 1, weight-for-age) or he doesn’t line-up in a fourth consecutive Cup.
After winning Saturday’s Moonee Valley Cup decisively, his fifth victory at Stakes level, the eight-year-old needed a 1.5kg penalty from Racing Victoria handicapper Greg Carpenter to sneak into the field. Carpenter penalised Precedence only 1kg and that means the Cummings galloper, now sitting in 29th position in the ballot, needs a miracle to make the Cup.
Because, if Precedence doesn’t win the Mackinnon (and he’s never won at weight-for-age in 13 prior attempts), he would only make the Melbourne Cup field if at least five horses ranked above him pulled out. And from what we know, that is not going to happen voluntarily.
And even if it did happen, it still may not be enough because if the winner of the Mackinnon and Lexus (2500m, Group 3, handicap) are ranked below Precedence in the order of entry, they will jump him into the Cup field.
The dead-wood in the ballot was culled on Monday when third declarations were taken by the Victoria Racing Club, leaving 47 horses in Cup contention.
A precedent was set last week when Carpenter penalised the Geelong Cup (2400m, Group 3, handicap) winner Ibicenco (who had the same Melbourne Cup handicap as Precedence) one kilo for his country cup success.
It was Ibicenco’s first Group victory (Precedence now has four) and it came in a horribly weak renewal of the Geelong Cup.
Verdant, the runner-up who carried two kilos less than Ibicenco at Geelong, was only beaten in the last stride of the race and exposed form indicates that he is lengths inferior to Precedence and the Moonee Valley Cup runner-up Shoreham.
In two meetings with Precedence in 2013, the imported Verdant – whose only Australian victory came in last year’s Lavazza (2800m, 0-95 benchmark, handicap) – has been handled with ease.
On both occasions Precedence carried at least five kilos more than Verdant and proved far too good in recording winning margins of seven lengths in May and a length in June over the Robert Smerdon-trained stayer.
Drawing a line through Verdant, Precedence would’ve beaten Ibicenco comfortably in the Geelong Cup. After all, Precedence was very good in winning a Moonee Valley Cup that had plenty on the Geelong staying feature in quality.
And an in-form Precedence is a very good horse. While he has not won at weight-for-age, he has finished high-up in several Group 1 middle-distance races. Precedence has run fourth and fifth in the Australian Cup (2000m, weight-for-age), seventh in the Underwood (1800m, weight-for-age) as well as in the BMW (2400m, weight-for-age).
A winner of the Galilee Series Final (then 2390m, three-year-olds, then open handicap) in 2009, Precedence beat the 2013 Galilee Final (now 2500m and listed) winner Shoreham on Saturday.
Quite remarkably, Shoreham wasn’t born when Precedence won his Galilee Final but trainer Saab Hasan had intentions of getting Shoreham, the third-placegetter in this year’s South Australian Derby (2500m, Group 1, three-year-olds), into the Melbourne Cup before he ran Precedence to a less than a two-length margin on Saturday.
Shoreham is not nominated to race on Saturday at Flemington even though he sits 36th in the current order of entry for the Melbourne Cup. As such, he has next to no chance of making the Cup field.
But like Precedence in 2009, we will be hearing more of this Galilee Final winner in years to come.
Precedence, who won the 2010 JRA Cup (2040m, Group 3, handicap) on the way to finishing eighth in the Melbourne Cup, had this year’s JRA Cup winner, Mourinho, finish fourth to him on Saturday.
The third-place getter Gotta Take Care was also a great and narrow third in the Bart Cummings (2500m, Listed, handicap) that was taken off live Melbourne Cup chance Sea Moon on protest earlier this month. And fifth-placed Tanby ran third in this year’s Australian Cup behind Super Cool, who in-turn was fifth in Saturday’s Cox Plate (2040m, Group 1, weight-for-age).
If Ibicenco, an imported horse whose prior credentials are highlighted by two listed-grade victories, deserved his one kilo penalty for winning the Geelong Cup then Precedence, who I’d argue has been handicapped far too generously for the Melbourne Cup, deserved at least a two-kilo penalty for winning the Moonee Valley Cup.
The Cummings stalwart should be firmly entrenched in Melbourne Cup equations because he is on-track to have a career-best finish in the Cup next week.
History says that when a horse wins the Moonee Valley Cup as decisively as Precedence did on Saturday, they invariably run well ten days later. It happened in 2010 when Precedence was eighth in the Cup.
In happened in 2011 when defending Cup winner Americain, a soft winner of the Valley race, was a slashing fourth ten days later.
In 2006 Zipping, who had performed well in all the key Spring Carnival lead-ups, took the Moonee Valley Cup narrowly before running fourth in Delta Blues’ narrow Melbourne Cup success.
In 2000, one of the weakest Melbourne Cups ever, Brew and Yippyio ran the Cup quinella after running one-two (in reverse order) in a Moonee Valley Cup held under lights.
In 1990, Darren Beadman rode Kingston Rule to Melbourne Cup success in track record time. Ten days earlier, the Bart Cummings galloper had carried 53kgs (Precedence carried 54kgs on Saturday) to Moonee Valley Cup success.
Most famously in 1978, ‘the Professor’ Roy Higgins almost started a riot at Moonee Valley when Hyperno, the hot favourite for the Moonee Valley Cup, was given an easy time in the last 200m of the race.
The gelding (later to be named Australian horse of the year for 1980/1981) was lengths clear of his opposition halfway down the straight and Higgins decided to ride ‘hands and heels’ (rather than vigorously) in attempt to save Hyperno for the Melbourne Cup.
It was a fateful decision because Hyperno was nabbed on the line by Clear Day. The following year, Hyperno – who by this stage had been transferred into the care of Cummings – won the Melbourne Cup with eventual four-time Melbourne Cup winning jockey Harry White in the saddle. Higgins, ironically beaten in the last stride, rode the runner-up Salamander.
The Moonee Valley Cup has been a great Melbourne Cup lead-up from the moment the distance of the race was increased to 12 furlongs (about 2400m) in 1909. Precedence is one of only six horses to have won the Moonee Valley Cup twice.
He is trained by the greatest trainer of stayers Australia has ever seen. He is a seasoned performer who has taken on the best at handicap and weight-for-age level over four seasons.
He’s coming off one of the best wins in his career and as such, could finish as high as in the top five of the Melbourne Cup.
Yet that is not enough to win a place in the Melbourne Cup field. In fact, Ibicenco, the winner of the weakest Geelong Cup in at least five years, is closer to making the field because he received the same weight penalty as Precedence.
Would the Status Quo still apply if Precedence was not New Zealand bred? Of the locally-trained horses, is priority and preference given to horses that are imported from Europe?
Because I can’t believe Precedence is set to miss out on the Melbourne Cup. What a shame!
Patrick Grealy
Guest
I for one will not be betting on the Melbourne Cup in protest of Bart's Horse not getting a run if it was not for a few like Bart,Tommy and other top Australian' Trainers the Melbourne cup would not exist all the races in Australia would b for Sprinters. My Say Patrick { stickitupya }
Justin Cinque
Expert
Hi James, the reason out-of-form horses run in the Cup is just so the owners can say they owned a Cup runner. This race is bigger than the sport - it is entrenched in Australian culture and even has a spot on the school cirruculum. I'd say the reason why horses almost always back-up in Australoa within 14 days or even three weeks is because of the different training merhods often used here. It is not uncommon (in fact it happens a lot) for a horse to run on Saturday (Derby Day) and then win the Melbourne Cup three days later. I'm with you about Mount Athos. There have been murmurs that Luca was protecting his handicap after the Ormonde but I'm not so sure. 12 months ago he came here after smashing Brown Panther in the Freer. But at Goodwood this year, he got killed by the Panther. He's not going as well even though his run in the March was much better.
Justin Cinque
Expert
He is a Valley specialist but Flemington is probably his next favourite track. He got beaten a length in the Australian Cup last year, ran fifth the year before, has always run well in the M Cup. I'm with you about the Geelong Cup being a great lead-up for ten years but this year's renewal was a real shame for the club. By the way, Verdant ran midfield in yesterday's Bendigo Cup beaten five lengths. That's a real guide into the quality of the Geelong race. Ibicenco would run in the top 12-16 I reckon. He will stay the trip and is in decent form. He also beat some good horses in the Slickpix about two months ago. But he doesn't have the class and that will stop him from getting really close to the main players.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Of course it's hands and heels! My bad Jonjoe, that's been fixed. Racing is an outdoors sport. When the weather is crap, the tracks are soft and when it is good they are firm. In Australia, we often race on 'concrete tracks' because that's what our climate produces. Is that conjucive to the best possible racing? Probably not for the Mebourne Cup especially when 80% of the field is European bred but I think a hard track should be part and parcel of Australia's greatest race. In my mind, I like the race having a few things unique about it. In any event, in the odd year that it does rain for the Cup, the imports and overseas runners will clean up like they did in 1993 and 2010 and even in 2004 when Makybe Diva (British bred) beat Vinnie Roe from Ireland in driving rain. As for a lack of 3200m racing in Australia, there has been no demand for it. We breed sprinters and most of our races are for sprinter-milers. Now, with so many imports around maybe there is merit in having a few more 3200m races on the calendar.
Jonjoe
Guest
Higgins rode Hyperno "Hands and Heels " not "Hands and Heals" as you wrote it. Let us hope the going at Flemington will be good for all the horses as too many good horses have already been hurt by the concrete track at Caulfield and or "greyhound tracks" like Moonee Valley and on other tracks already this year..As you may have noticed many of the imported stayers are Irish bred and rarely ever are allowed to run on rock hard tracks by their owners and trainers unlike in Australia where many top class horses are destroyed at an early age. Horses are not machines.And why aren't there more 3200metre races for horses on the Australian calendar in the first place?
James
Guest
Hi, I am surprised that many of the horses running in the Melbourne Cup are doing so after running poorly in their prep races. I appreciate many of your established prep races are over distances well short of the two miles of the cup so this may explain some of the performances. Also another difference is that in England we wouldn't run horses so quickly after their previous race. The European trainers are really starting to aim their horses at the Cup - the prize money is massive so why wouldn't they. Really looking forward to the race and hope it's run at a decent pace. I am shocked you have Mount Athos shorter in the betting than Dandino. I don't think Mount Athos is the same horse this year and he finished behind Dandino in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot.
Darren Farnham
Roar Rookie
I think your forgetting that Precedence grows an extra leg at the Valley having won 5 times and cant produce this form at Flemington. He has1 win from 10 attempts (open handicap in 2010 where he was lengths better then opposition and 2.30 fav). While maybe not the best incarnation of the Geelong Cup this year, the results over the last 10 have been outstanding. If Ibicenco gets a run, he will race well and beat many more fancied runners home. Good top 8 selection at odds. At lest he can stay an win at two miles, while unfortunately Bart's horse can not.
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
Yeah - Railings! Bloody hell... it went around every year. How many times did the AJC Derby winner Fiumicino go around? Sometimes I think these horses are entered so the connections can get a good seat at Flemington.
Scuba
Guest
Pretty harsh on Headturner Will, given that he only ran once in the Cup! Think you might mean Railings, who raced in the same colours.
Justin Cinque
Expert
I agree completely with your comment Will. Well said!
Tyren Hones
Guest
I say that yes, he IS a better horse now than the previous three Melbourne Cups. His breeding suggests he gets better with age, and he's coming off one of the best wins of his career. If he gets in, I'm happy to say he's a chance.
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
"Back to Precedence, & as the winner of a time honoured, current lead-in race to the Cup, he should have automatic entry. Not because he’s Bart’s horse, but because it’s common sense." Yeah, this I agree with. Punters want to see good, in form horses running in the Melbourne Cup, not those living on past glories (watching the likes of Headturner going around year after year with no chance of winning) or Group 3 Europeans we know little about. Although, ironically Precedence would probably have faced a much strong field had a Cup start been on the table, and might not have won!
Justin Cinque
Expert
Well one of them is a joke Scuba. Either Carpenter made a mistake with Ibicenco or with Precedence. They contradict each other. Mr Moet is a Group 1 winner. If that's what it takes to make the Cup for an Aussie-bred horse then this current trend of overseas-bred horses dominating the race is going to continue. I think Precedence's results in the race are very good and if you take his career performances, I think he's unlucky to be so low in the ballot.
sheek
Roar Guru
The Plate/Cups debate is of course as old as well, say 1922 when the Cox Plate first came into existence. Some great WFA & 2000/2400m champion horses never won the Melbourne Cup - Manfred, Chatham, Beau Vite, Hydrogen, Redcraze, Tulloch, Tobin Bronze, Kingston Town, So You Think - to name just a very few. While Bart deliberately kept his champion Galilee away from the Plate, even though he developed into an outstanding WFA/2000/2400m horse. Last year, Green Moon's Cup win put into final clarity for me that the Plate is an entirely separate stream from the handicaps. His run in the Plate was abnormally poor, but it transpired Lloyd Williams had run him in the Plate merely as a top-up run for the Cup. So the Cox Plate should not be seen as a major lead-up to the Cup. To win the Plate requires a different type of horse generally to the Cup. Even the VRC, MVRC & MRC should all know this (Can't we just call them all the VRC?). Back to Precedence, & as the winner of a time honoured, current lead-in race to the Cup, he should have automatic entry. Not because he's Bart's horse, but because it's common sense. Usually Victorian racing is ahead of the pack. But they're showing signs of woeful dithering at present.
Scuba
Guest
Agree with everything Cameron says here, and I'll add something else. If you handicap Precedence against Precedence, he will now (if he gets a run) carry the same weight as 2012, and 0.5 less than 2010 and 2011. Given his results in the race, you could argue he's poorly handicapped. Justin, currently sitting on the borderline at number 24 is Mr Moet. Pretty sure he wasn't bought by a European bloodstock agent in England or France. He's a much better chance than Precedence. The Ibicenco penalty was a joke, but let's not conflate the two issues.
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
The only reason I'd like to see Precedence in the Cup field is because he would attract a lot of money from punters drawn to the Bart factor and push out the odds of some of the winning chances.
Justin Cinque
Expert
In that case (not intereted in horses running in the Cup to finish top ten) then fair enough, Precedence missing out doesn't matter a great deal. But it's disappointing for the industry. The message is clear: Wanna own a Cup runner? Then stuff the Aussie sales, employ a Euro bloodstock agent and spend hundreds and thousands on a tried English or French stayer. That's your only hope.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I'm all for more direct entry races into the Cups, especially because it means you're getting the best chance of seeing stayers in form. I'd add the Herbert Power to your list Sheek in place of the MV Cup, or perhaps alongside it.
Cameron Rose
Expert
A compelling case Justin, laying it out with form and figures, but I'm personally not buying it. Is Precedence a better horse now than when he ran in three previous Melbourne Cups? The answer has to be 'no'. And after finishes of 9th, 11thand 8th in his previous three Cups, he simply isn't up to it. I'm not interested in horses being entered to just run for lower end prize-money. In 2010, he was in the staying form of his life, winning the JRA Cup, followed by an unlucky 3rd beaten less than a length in the Herbert Power, before winning the MV Cup. He got beaten 10 lengths in the big one. Hell, he’s even run in two Sydney Cups and done no better than 7th and 11th. I will concede that Ibicenco shouldn't have got a penalty for winning at Geelong, but 1kg is the right penalty for Precedence. Sorry Bart, but the right call has been made.
sheek
Roar Guru
Hi Justin, Penalties are becoming a problem, especially with some good horses shying away from the Caulfield Cup. Perhaps it's time to do away with penalties & give some 'precedence' to recent form - winners of the Metropolitan, Caulfield, Geelong & Moonee Valley Cups should be given automatic entry into the melbourne Cup as displaying current form. Ditto the winner of the Hotham Handicap (Dalgety) this Saturday. Once upon a time this was the case. If overseas horses are going to dominate our Cup fields, at least have them run a bit more often in our other races as well! I can't say I'm sorry for the Australian breeding industry. We allowed this woeful state in our stayers to develop. We have no-one to blame but ourselves. On another matter, Bart is nearly 86. It's time this great legend moved into the shadows & handed over full running to James. BTW, the WFA stream is now developing separately from the handicap stream, which is not necessarily a bad thing. Even Bart knew 40-50 years ago, that preparing a horse for the Cox Plate wouldn't win you the Cup (except with Saintly). The four who have managed it in the same year were pretty exceptional - Nightmarch (1929), Phar Lap (1930), Rising Fast (1954) & Saintly (1996). Sorry if this is all a bit muddled. In a rush & so much to say but trying to keep it short. Great article as usual.