Can you feel that tingle down your spine? Can you feel the hairs on the back of your neck rising? Can you feel the butterflies churning in your stomach?
Nervous tension has overtaken our bodies. Our wedding day has nothing on this. The birth of a child doesn’t quite compare.
That’s right, Derby Day is upon us again. It’s Christmas come early, and Santa has delivered the highest quality fields in nine Group races, four of them at the highest level. The depth is astounding, the value mouth-watering.
Let’s get into the main race, the AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m) for the three-year-olds, and have a look at each horse individually.
1. Criterion
It’s always nice when a quality two year old becomes a quality three year old, and Criterion is such an example, a Group 2 winner last season and Group 1 placed last start in the Spring Champion, coming home hungrily, giving the impression that the 2500m will be right up his alley.
Like several of the favourites, he has a tricky draw to contend with as his negative.
2. Complacent
This horse just keeps getting better, and has deservedly been battling for Derby favouritism all spring.
He’s looking for his fourth win on the trot after accounting for the likes of Savvy Nature and Criterion in the Gloaming and Spring Champion. He won’t get the cosy run he’s been used to from his wide barrier though, but if you like him, you’re getting great odds.
3. Savvy Nature
The owner of five impressive runs this campaign, and getting better with each one.
Made a mess of them in the Vase last week, and can have only benefited from a run the Melbourne way of going in a way the above two colts haven’t.
Also drawn wide, so won’t get any favours early, but if he gets the breaks passing the winning post the first time, he’s the one to beat.
4. Polanski
There’s no better form than winning form, and Polanski has taken out two of the key lead-up races to the Derby, the Super Impose at Flemington and the Norman Robinson at Caulfield.
His best asset is the ability to sit handy and grind his opponents out of the race, and from barrier one he’ll get the cosiest run of any horse. He’ll hit the front at some stage in the straight, and not many, if any, will get past him.
5. Drago
He caught the eye first-up in the Up and Coming to such an extent that our own Justin Cinque declared him his Derby horse, and it was hard to disagree at the time.
Since then, he’s been disappointing despite his Gloaming placing, and we haven’t seen anything from him that suggests he can turn the tables on Savvy Nature and Complacent.
6. San Diego
Has been running well behind good horses this campaign, without necessarily threatening the winners, but we saw his best last start when he took up the running rather than settling back.
Set up the race for Polanski in the Norman Robinson, but boxed on superbly in an effort that suggested he would make a tough stayer. One of the leading chances.
7. Honey Steel’s Gold
Not the worst horse in the race but, unfortunately for connections, not the best in it either.
Polanski came from behind him in the Norman Robinson, and he couldn’t catch San Diego who was in front, ultimately going down by the best part of five lengths.
8. Tips and Beers
Had won three in a row in the weaker grades before finding himself five lengths in arrears of Savvy Nature in the Vase last week.
It’s hard to see him turning the tables on that horse, which in turn makes him look inferior to a few others as well.
9. Epic Saga
Racing as honestly as any three year old in the country, and giving every indication that he’ll relish the 2500m, but he’s another from the Norman Robinson that will find it hard to turn the tables on the first two home.
Still, you’ll find plenty of worse horses to back at the $10 the place.
10. Tupac Amaru
Couldn’t get within five lengths of Polanski in the Super Impose, despite taking ground off most runners, and followed it up with a second in the Geelong Classic, which hasn’t been the worst form reference for this race in recent years. Needs to find a bit though.
11. Pinstripe Lane
Ran a nice race behind Polanski two starts back, and then was probably a better run than all but Savvy Nature in the Vase, but was soundly beaten. Get the feeling he’ll beat home more than beat him at a good price.
12. Throw The King
Failed to make a dent in the Geelong Classic, but that was on heavy ground, so he can be forgiven. I’m never one to read anything into runs on bottomless ground. Form before that was building to something though.
Obviously needs to find a bit, and won’t be appearing in many trifectas or first fours.
13. Thunder Fantasy
Has a five length win to his credit this campaign, and hasn’t had a lot go right since in good races.
All those that were furious at Fiveandahalfstar for kicking them out in the first leg of the quaddie at 40-1 last year should take note – this horse has the same trainer and same odds. He’ll sit handy from a good draw, and is a value chance.
14. Surging Wave
One of many whose form will be assessed against Polanski, and thus far he hasn’t been up to that horse.
Barrier 15 doesn’t do him any favours either, as he’s almost certain to get snagged back to the tail. From there, he’d have to pass too many horses that are better than him to win.
15. Famechon
No Mike Moroney-trained stayer can ever be completely discounted once they get over a trip, and he was probably already looking for further than the 2000m of the Norman Robinson last start. Might be a chance if they decide to go around for another lap.
16.Bring Something
One of the more interesting runners of the day, and arguably the best ‘odds’ chance of the race. Was able to get within three lengths of Divine Calling and a certain Shamus Award in the Stutt Stakes two starts back, coming from last to do so.
Again got too far out of his ground in the Norman Robinson but hit the line nicely. Bossy won’t die wondering on him, and Cox Plate form has to be good form doesn’t it?
17. Cadillac Mountain (emerg)
A tricky runner to assess if he gets a start, winning a country maiden in the classic Peter Moody style before coming to town and failing with excuses in the Norman Robinson. I don’t see many people backing him.
18. Empire Rock (emerg)
Could very well be the worst horse to ever race on Derby day if he gets a start.
Selections
1.Savvy Nature
2.Polanski
3.Bring Something
4.Complacent
Mackinnon Stakes, 2000m
With the non-acceptances of Happy Trails, Foreteller, Fawkner and Silent achiever, this edition of the Mackinnon, sadly, wouldn’t be out of place as a Group 3.
Still, one set of connections will be getting their hands on the $600,000 first place, and I doubt they’ll be complaining about the strength of the race.
Jet Away is the obvious favourite after his massive Caulfield Cup run that was missed by nobody. Dear Demi, Mr Moet and Moriarty all pleased behind him, without suggesting they could turn the tables if Jet Away settles and brings his best.
Solzhenitsyn is flying, and ready to test himself over the distance. Pakal will win better races than the Cranbourne Cup, and Mourayan did run second in a stronger Mackinnon than this, albeit was probably going a bit better at the time.
Side Glance brings the Cox Plate form, and is a strong blow-out chance.
A tricky little race to assess, and there might be more to it than meets the eye.
Selections
1.Side Glance
2.Solzhenitsyn
3.Jet Away
4.Pakal
Myer Classic
Red Tracer is one of the best horses in the country and entitled to be a short favourite here, but with eight career starts beyond 1400m and not a win among them, you can leave me out of taking $2.30 or so about her over 1600m against the best mares in the land.
Her stablemate, Catkins, is the obvious danger after proving herself at the mile last week, recording a comfortable win giving almost the entire field 5kg’s. She’s as tough, game and honest as Red Tracer, and will do fans of the cerise proud.
Fire Up Fifi is in hot form and will be the strongest at the end of the mile, while Sharnee Rose is blitzing in Sydney, finding the winning form that eluded her when housed in Melbourne. There are plenty of other chances at odds in a race that may well be wider than it first appears – Bonaria, Floria, Molto Bene and Zonza must all be taken seriously.
Selections
1.Catkins
2.Red Tracer
3.Fire Up Fifi
4.Molto Bene
Coolmore Stud Stakes, 1600m
How do you go past Zoustar? As ten rivals are sure to find out tomorrow, not easily.
He’s been set for this since his Golden Rose win, and demolished some smart rivals last time in a pit-stop before Flemington. He’s the one to beat, and the market firmly suggests it.
For second place, I’m going with a horse at precisely the other end of betting, the despised outsider Fast N Rocking.
This horse was so impressive over 1200m earlier this campaign, he started favourite in Zoustar’s Golden Rose in his very next start.
He gave the likes of Divine Calling and Thermal Current windburn that day, and yet is now double and triple their odds over the same distance? Madness. The main danger to the favourite for mine.
Selections
1.Zoustar
2.Fast N Rocking
3.Not Listenin’tome
4.Missy Longstocking
Lexus Stakes, 2500m
Along with the Group 1s, I know we will be live blogging the Lexus Stakes from Flemington as we all keep an eye on who will be securing those final positions in the Cup field.
What a tough, even race it looks to be.
Selections
1.Let’s Make Adeal
2.Bass Straight
3.Araldo
4.Motivado
Might as well give my other selections as well, with only four other races left!
I reckon Equator might just steal a break on Hucklebuck in the Carbine Club (1600m), so I’m happy to take the better odds on him. May’s Dream is the best short-price horse of the day in the Wakeful.
Albrecht has the perfect lead-up form and weight to win the Yellowglen (1200m) as my each-way best of the day.
British General, as the only obvious speed in the race, will take a power of beating in the last over his favourite track and distance.
Settle back, enjoy the greatest day of racing Australia has to offer, and let it all wash over you. Then it’s only 365 sleeps until we do it all again!
Steve harmison
Guest
Nice article with experts comments. I am totally impressed and learned some new things. Thanks very mcuh Cameron rose.
Drew H
Guest
It was hard day of racing. With some short priced winners mixed up with a few value bets, I can see how many people did not capitalize. (or is that normal racing?) I went home early, so to speak. (only kidding) Bass Strait was a bit unlucky in the straight, missing its chance to run on. I thought that it was the each-way bet of the day. The short price winners looked great.
GW
Roar Pro
Thanks to a frigid ride from Dom Tourneur in MR 1 on the hot fav Hucklebuck, I and many others now need to find some money to bet this afternoon. Hucklebuck was a certainty, the jock obviously thought so too. He sat in behind the leaders until it was too late to win. On big days like this, and particularly in Melbourne, there always seems to be a horse on all punters lips as a near cert. Trouble is, they seldom win. I loaded up on Hucklebuck (obviously), so that I'd have twice as much money to bet with for the day. Oops. I don't mind losing, but I do mind it when a jockey with a lap-full of horse, holds it up so long that it needs to be Kingston Town to catch up. No doubt this horse will be $1.50 next time, and I doubt that Tourneur will be sitting on it. Doesn't help much that I backed the winner last start... Last Saturday John Kissick was on Riva de Lago which was a hot fav. At the 350m mark, he was last in a small field, but rather than pull the horse 5 wide (on a track that 24 horses can race side by side), he goes for a split between the outside horse and the one inside. Of course there's no room, so for the next 250m he gets baulked for a run. When the dope finally pulls it out wide, it charges home and just misses the win. Had he pulled to the outside in the first place, he wins by 5 lengths. There are so many ways to lose, hard to accept the stupidity/overconfidence of these jockeys. Slightly different topic, but why can't all senior jockeys judge the pace of a race? How many times do you back a backmarker and the leaders pull up for most of the race and just sprint home? You may as well not have had a bet, cause you have no chance. I backed Dandino in the Caulfield Cup, and Williams was out ridden by a magnificent Hall ride - I don't get upset with this as Williams allowed his horse plenty of room and was going for it for 500m, and Hall rode like he was Bossy on Makybe Diva. I did put a $100 on Fawkner, so it hurt less I suppose.
lozza
Guest
Oh i forgot the Myer - Red Tracy as the fav worries me no end - 4 cracks at the mile for 0 wins and 2 cracks a Flemington for 0 - i'll stay out of this race - we know that it throws up some longshots - Appearance last year at 30s or thereabouts.
lozza
Guest
Enjoyed reading your insights Cam. Derby Day has so many interesting races to consider - just about all have really meaningful links to subsequent races in the Carnival or to Sandown in a fortnight. The only race that really disappointed me is the Mackinnon - what a shame that Happy Trails didnt run - i know that the Cox is a gut buster but the quality has dropped away now - Solzenitzen could do a Desert War, but my money has to be with the fav must win for a Cup run. The Hotham/Dalgety/Saab/Lexus looks to be Araldos as he wont get into the Cup field otherwise - i really rate Sea Moon and we know that they went hammer and tong in the Bart Cummings The Derby - i was thinking of the Octagonal/Nothin and Elvstroem/Kempinsky battles of yesteryear, when assessing this as a showdown between Complacent and Savvy - the market tells me i am clearly underestimating the Norman Robbo - guess we'll see - i can happily back them both at present. The Wakeful - i must be crazy but i'm not sold on May's Dream - way too short for mine, cant see why she beats Arabian Gold and Solicit? Star Fashion looks better placed at HQ also... The sprintis open as usual and the "get out stakes" - who knows - cant wait for the first and the Day will just get better from there!
Steve
Guest
Good to get some informed comment on Derby Eve, I've been over from the Shaky Isles for Cup Week many times and realised yonks ago that Derby Day beats Cup Day by the length of the straight! Great memories of seeing GREAT horses. Just love the atmsophere and excitement of Derby Day, and great value for your punting money! I like Criterion in the Derby, Thunder Fantasy a great rough place bet, Side Glance on the MacKinnon, Kilenni in the Lexus, and Fiorente is a moral for the Cup but should be at 10-1, not 7-1. Heres hoping Flemington is at its brilliant best and the weather doesnt play up! Cheers
Anto
Guest
Brave!
Anto
Guest
Have a look at Pakal's run in the Cranbourne Cup, if you can find it. Was masterful. [Google "Brilliant Boss lands Cranbourne Cup"]
Anto
Guest
Agreed. I think DD could win it. However, now that she's qualified for the Cup and given that the owner, Singo, has a $10m bet riding on her for Tuesday, the instructions to the jockey will be clear: just keep her out of trouble.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Absolutely Brad! Going to be a great afternoon down in Melbourne. Let's hope it has the usual excitement, surprises and talking points synonomous with so many Derby Days of the past.
Brad Durrant
Roar Guru
If your unable to watch Australia's best day of racing, be sure to tune in tomorrow for The Roar's live blog of the Lexus and the four Group 1's. Our own Justin Cinque will be on course at Flemington providing his pre-race expertise and the late mail from the mounting yard. Great preview Cam! It's going to be a sensational day of racing!
Justin Cinque
Expert
Yeah tend to agree Allanthus.
Geoff Parkes
Expert
That's a pretty fair case Cameron. Justin, obviously agree with the logic about Dear Demi but, as good as her Caulfield run was, I can see her running well again on Tuesday but not to win.
Cameron Rose
Expert
The Cox Plate has been such a strong precedent for the Mackinnon, and getting beaten four lengths in it has often been enough to get the job done a week later. Side Glance has his regular jockey back on board, which will be a huge plus as well, and this is not a strong WFA field. Look at the last decade of Mackinnon winners, and almost all have one thing in common - they are legitimate 1600m-2000m horses, which Side Glance also is. How many others can we say that about here? Not saying he's a good thing by any means, but give me the $21 about him to find out.
Drew H
Guest
A good day to be looking over the mounting yard and appreciating the flesh. I'll search for a winner there. I might even lay Let’s Make Adeal. Any takers? It is the best day to have a bet. (and be market savvy)
Justin Cinque
Expert
Allanthus, I'm playing the role of the bunny in The Roar's Star Stable league and i'm bringing in Dear Demi for the reason you mention - Two bites at the cherry! The Mackinnon is winnable. I already have Jet Away.
Geoff Parkes
Expert
Thanks Cameron. I'm not sure that's helped clarify much but a good read all the same! I love Derby Day, on so many counts. The contrast between the train trip on the way in and the way out, good value outside of the favourites, great racing and (dare I say it) great spectating... The Mackinnon is really tough - do you like Side Glance purely on the Cox Plate run, or something else? It's so tempting to throw Jet Away into the Star Stable because if he wins you get the $ plus another cup runner for free. But it's such a hard race to line up, they've come into it from so many different form lines.