There were no surprises over the weekend’s 10 Nations matches, with all games going to the favourites, despite a few scorelines being perhaps different than expected.
Rankings in the top three remain constant however below this change is afoot.
Big movers Australia gain huge benefit, with a dominant performance against Italy gaining them a sufficient differential boost to reverse the outcome of their simulated match against Samoa while holding off the French who, with a relatively good result against New Zealand, might otherwise have managed to overturn their own simulated result with the Aussies.
In the end Australia received a nine point jump up the table for their efforts to fifth, with five points for the real world win and four for the overturned simulated result.
Wales still hold on to fourth with the one point from their real world loss to South Africa and a superior points adjusted differential enough to keep the Australians below them – for now.
They both join England in a three-way battle for third with the Welsh and Aussies needing to win both their remaining matches to finish on equal points and take it to differentials.
England have their toughest challenge coming up in a fired-up New Zealand looking to prove a point after their loss last year at Twickenham.
Victory to the English would strike a huge blow to New Zealand’s chances of finishing number one and put South Africa’s destiny in their own hands.
More importantly, it would seal England third position outright, highly desirable with the chasing Welsh currently holding a superior adjusted differential.
It all points to the final match of the tournament in Cardiff deciding positions three through five in a thrilling finale.
The current points table is below and full details of fixtures and tournament structure can be found on the 10 Nations website.
South Africa 38
New Zealand 37
England 30
Australia 21
Wales 21
Ireland 19
France 16
Italy 15
Samoa 11
Argentina 4
Hauraki
Guest
Its still WRONG !!!! A team with one loss in two years is second to a team they have beaten in 4 straight matches ????
soapit
Roar Guru
it comes from only one game against each team being counted. the other way to go would be to take an average from the two games or apply weighting to having played more than once etc and no doubt that would arrive at the true number one but the irb rankings already do that. this is supposed to be a tournament so individual match results should in some way be decisive more so than if they were only used in some algorithm to rank the teams. if youre going to get benefit for multiple wins how do you treat a teams beating italy in three games compared to south africa in two? would need complex calcs which as i said the irb rankings already do. so it may be a flaw but its a flaw present in all tournaments in the world where the same teams meet across multiple tournaments. the winner of the most FA cup matches doesnt get them counted towards the premier league even if they beat man u for example. aus beat new zealand in 2011 tri nations but it mattered zero when it came to the world cup. i suspect it wouldnt have seemed so bad if i'd set it up at the start of the year and it just unfolded this way.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
Yep, some utterly bizarre choices on that list.
Kia_Ora_Kiwi
Roar Rookie
I like what you are trying to do. Despite your "game in hand" explanation I and others here have trouble with the unbeaten AB's being second behind a team they have beaten 2 of 2 this year. I have been to your site to decipher your approach however there must be a flaw in the method for this to happen. Personally I have gotten over the RWC and I see the world rankings as far more significant. As France almost showed in 2011 you only have to win the right 3 games over the last 14 days to have the World Champs tag for 4 yrs. Really it is BS. As an ABs fan I will be angry till the day I die over 1995 RWC. There was daylight between the ABs and every other team that year and the Bokke could only just beat them when the team was "sick." Remember some ABs vomiting on the sideline at half time? And what if a ref has a bad day like the great Paddy O'Brien did to Fiji (1999?) or worse still 2007 when Wayne Barnes whistled the ABs off the field (also ignoring a call of "forward pass" from the linesman in a French try). After the game the French media examined it to dispel the rumours. They found in the 2nd half alone he had missed 26 penalty offenses by France (mainly cynical off-sides) who won by only a couple of points. Not to get too distracted, how many "World Champs" have done well in the 1st and 2nd yrs after gaining that tag? I know there is no other way of doing it better (unless doing it annually) but as stated would France have been the best team at the tournament if, in the final, they had kicked one more goal than they did to win in 2011?
Colin Kennedy
Roar Guru
Oh please don't let Wales win, we won't hear the end of it for like another 200 years before they win another one.
soapit
Roar Guru
not quite enough effort perhaps in light of the above!
Shop
Guest
I'm assuming the red no.6 got a red card.
Matilda
Guest
Ok thanks soapit. Now you have my interest even though I don't agree with it wholeheartedly but then again this a forum to express yourself! Obviously a lot of effort has gone into this and a good some good talking points. I will keep tabs on this site in future. Cheers.
Tane Mahuta
Guest
Wales deserves to be above Australia when the gain more points in the IRB ranking system and head to head is irrelevant. Didnt see Scotland in the top 3 after beating Australia last year and for good reason. Imo the best teams are 1) NZ 2) SA 3) Eng 4) Wal 5) Ire 6) Aus 7) Fra 8) Sco 9) Sam 10) Arg. But Ire vs Aus will give us more of an indication of where Aus sit. Fra should be higher but 1 from 9!!!
soapit
Roar Guru
SCANDAL ROCKS THE 10 NATIONS!! i discovered due to matildas probing that i'd buggered up new zealands and south africas matches with the kiwis doubling up on their real world matches v france and SA getting a sim match against italy that wasnt required. I'm sorry to those that had money riding on the various permutations of the tournament. should have triple checked and shall have to build that into the spreadsheet somehow. standings dont change but new points are as follows (and shall definitely have to get it right for next year, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE bear in mind that nz has a game in hand over both SA and eng before anyone complains about SA being ahead and england being so close (also bear in mind both have only lost to one nation this year compared to nz's 0): 1 South Africa 34 2 New Zealand 32 3 England 30 4 Australia 21 5 Wales 21 6 Ireland 19 7 France 15 8 Italy 15 9 Samoa 11 10 Argentina 4 big winner out of this is england who have a chance of snatching second if the all blacks lose final last two matches (keep hoping england). matilda everything should match up now, all teams will have total real world matches + sim matches = 9 i guess this is an occasion i'm glad for the tournaments minuscule profile. good to get the kinks ironed out before the eyes of the world are upon us.
soapit
Guest
yes all teams will end up on the same number of total matches. If less real matches are played then more sim matches will be required to make sure all nations have a match up somehow. matilda: I also have a problem with the idea – if AB’s and SA’s won each of their games only 1 real world game would’ve been accounted for 10N matches. This is true and is true of any tournament, sometimes the matches you win don’t count toward the tournament, just aske the all blacks about the world cup. i'll be letting everyone know in plenty of time which is which.
In Brief
Guest
Seems like Georgia match was played in bad conditions and quite an ugly match marred by an ugly fight: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldRScR_qy5Q#t=64
In Brief
Guest
Couple of clips from the Romania match Ionuţ Dumitru running all across the pitch to make a cover tackle. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFQ0jCkaEbU Catalin Fercu's magnificent run (a move unfortunately ended with a drop goal). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1u10jqdpBNU
In Brief
Guest
links?
Chan Wee
Guest
Hmmm some strange nominations here, Fofana at 13, Picamoles at 6, LeRoux at 15 and Folau at 14. And what is Sivi doing here :P :D "" All Blacks dominate new award nominations ESPN Staff November 12, 2013 New Zealand players dominate the nominations for a new international player of the year award, organised by the International Rugby Players' Association, with 14 All Blacks, past and present, among the 45-strong list of contenders. Players and officials alike will be invited to pick their Player of the Year, International Newcomer of the Year, International Team of the Year, and World XV of the Year, from the list of three nominees for each jersey number. Fans can vote for their own Player and World XV of the Year awards using the Ultimate Rugby mobile app. The nominees include 12 players on the All Blacks' tour of Europe, namely fullback Israel Dagg, wingers Ben Smith and Julian Savea, centre Ma'a Nonu, fly-halves Dan Carter and Aaron Cruden, scrum-half Aaron Smith, back-rowers Kieran Read, Richie McCaw and Liam Messam, and second-rows Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick. Conrad Smith is currently on sabbatical while Sitiveni Sivivatu no longer plays for New Zealand but stars in France. Three Wallabies made the list of nominees - Israel Folau, Will Genia and James Horwill - while England are represented only by Alex Corbisiero. World No.2-ranked South Africa have five players among the list of nominees, which also includes eight Welshmen, four France players. The Nominees 15: Willie Le Roux (RSA), Leigh Halfpenny (Wal), Israel Dagg (NZL) 14: Israel Folau (Aus), Ben Smith (NZL), Napolioni Nalaga (Fij) 13: Wesley Fofana (Fr), Jonathan Davies (Wales), Conrad Smith (NZL) 12: Jamie Roberts (Wal), Ma'a Nonu (NZL), Jean de Villiers (RSA) 11: George North (Wal), Julian Savea (NZL), Sitiveni Sivivatu (NZL) 10: Dan Carter (NZL), Johnny Sexton (Ire), Aaron Cruden (NZL) 9: Kahn Fotuali'l (Sam), Aaron Smith (NZL), Will Genia (Aus) 8: Kieran Read (NZL), Sergio Parisse (Ita), Toby Faletau (Wal) 7: Sean O'Brien (Ire), Richie McCaw (NZL), Francois Louw (RSA) 6: Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe (Arg), Louis Picamoles (Fra), Liam Messam(NZL) 5: James Horwill (Aus), Brodie Retallick (NZL), Alun Wyn Jones (Wal) 4: Sam Whitelock (NZL), Eben Eztebeth (RSA), Joe Tekori (Sam) 3: Juan Figallo (Arg), Adam Jones (Wal), Census Johnston (Sam) 2: Bismarck Du Plessis (RSA), Benjamin Kayser (Fra) Richard Hibbard (Wal) 1: Vincent Debaty (Fra), Alex Corbiseiro (Eng), Marcos Ayerza (Arg) © AAP ""
Matilda
Guest
Ok had a look at the site but I'm still not convinced. Although I do think it is an interesting idea however there are flaws in this system. In the case of SA which has 6 real world games and NZ 5 real world games played so far. There are only 2 'Real world games left'. If both teams win both their games and it's a big ask for on both teams. SA may well be #1 at the end. Will a simulated game be given to the AB's to match SA's real and simulated games? Q: There are often multiple matches between the nations involved. How is the particular match that counts toward this tournament selected. A: In the case of multiple matches between nations the match that counts towards the championship will be selected by me (ideally before the tournament commences), generally at random but with an attempt to share home and away matches as evenly as possible. I also have a problem with the idea - if AB's and SA's won each of their games only 1 real world game would've been accounted for 10N matches.
soapit
Roar Guru
have a read through some other comments and have a look at the full table on the website and see if you cant find a reason for that anomaly.
soapit
Roar Guru
mainly because those irb rankings would mean that the ten in the tournament wouldnt be the top ten on the rankings throughout the year and just seemed neater. plus the top irb points minus lowest irb points would get complicated if it kept changing so went for simple to start with. i take your point though, might be worth thinking about for next year but right now leaning towards sacrificing the slight increase in accuracy in the name of simplicity. .
Dasher
Roar Guru
I still reckon the adjustment factor needs improvement, mate. Can't you use the updated IRB ratings each week in your calculations? Probably wouldn't be too hard to do. Nevertheless, it looks like the ladder is evolving nicely to where everyone belongs.
Keeping it real
Guest
And decent crowds too!