Roar Guru
Joined December 2009
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The Carlos Cup is a hypothetical challenge-defence rugby trophy developed in a similar manner to New Zealand Rugby's 114-year-old Ranfurly Shield. The current holder…
Shortly after selecting the Wallabies team on Tuesday, it is alleged that the immediate backlash on online sports forums has forced coach Robbie Deans…
There has been a lot of banging on in the media (especially here) about the imbalance in strength within the Australian conference and how…
Yeah but the winner of the series and keeper of the Gallaher Trophy was decided on points difference. The kiwis were famously filthy about it
NZ View: 'Drastic change' demanded with Foster and Cane in crosshairs as 'woefully flawed' ABs need answers fast
All this talk about it being the first series loss at home for the Kiwis, why doesn’t 2009 v France count?
NZ View: 'Drastic change' demanded with Foster and Cane in crosshairs as 'woefully flawed' ABs need answers fast
Argentina can still save us!
MATCH REPORT: 'Horrendous'! Rennie anger as 14-man Wallabies beaten at the death
We probably need to rethink the draw and stop agreeing to play the first two games of the Rugby Championship against New Zealand. Since 2012, this has happened 9 times and we lose both games. Only twice have we played either South Africa or Argentina first (2015 and 2019). And in both those years, we went on to win the first game against New Zealand.
The simple, infallible way the Wallabies can stop losing the Bledisloe Cup every year
Also go back and watch Sevu Reece drop his knee into Alex Newsome’s head as he scores that late try in the Tahs Crusaders game.
Dave Rennie explains why Swinton should escape lengthy ban for red card incident
I think the call by the ref was Barrett was “trying to do the right thing”… well aren’t we all??
Dave Rennie explains why Swinton should escape lengthy ban for red card incident
Bobby, the ref in the SR AU GF did his absolute best to keep his cards in his pocket to make the final an even spectacle. I’ve watched the game three times now and noticed that Wright was not penalised or carded for a neck roll, Valentini escaped a red for head high contact and Swain didn’t get a yellow or penalty try for deliberately collapsing the maul at the end of the game with the Reds camped on the line and the Brumbies repeatedly infringing. I was in the crowd at that game and I was prepared to wear those decisions and accept the Brumbies win.
"That's rubbish": Reds in utter disbelief after copping the two worst decisions of the year
You talking about the legit call to red card Mackenzie for hitting McDermott in the head or the deliberate knock down by Tiatia with an open goal line that was yellow carded but given no penalty try? Or are you talking about the Super Rugby AU GF where Tom Wright was not carded or even penalised for a neck roll, or Valentini wasn’t carded for the head hit, or Swain wasn’t carded for deliberately collapsing a maul 1m from the line during a series of Brumbies infringements with 5 mins to go?
Reds fail to make final-round statement
Yet it was this try that almost cost the Brumbies the win … score under the sticks mate …
Brumbies catch Hurricanes napping with great short-side play
Is it really an “embarrassment”?
Reds hold their nerve to break Australia's Super Rugby drought
“Appoint Australian referees to oversee matches played in Australia.”
Am I the only one who caught this sentence? Not that I disagree! Why was Mike Fraser (NZ) calling the Reds Crusaders game when every other game has had a non-neutral ref? Wouldn’t have changed the outcome because the Reds played so utterly badly, but I’ll scratch my head if it turns out the other 24 TT games have non-neutral refs.
Separate point, but I actually think one overlooked problem in Australian rugby has the been the distinct absence of top-level Australian referees for about 10-15 years – particularly ones calling games in other countries – and the absence of proper pathways for those refs in Australia.
Is there a way, way back for Australian rugby?
I like what you’re doing. I’ve also been using Elo Ratings system for about 5 years now. Although Elo will never perfectly predict the game, it does do pretty damn well for a ‘blind’ algorithm! This season I’m getting about a 72% accuracy and a margin error of 12.7 (overall since 1996 it’s 67% and 12.1). What I think might be working better for me this season is the post-match rating points exchange and the mean-reversion between seasons (no coincidence they are the hardest parts to calibrate!). Keep it up!
Super Rugby: The super stats Round 4 wrap, Round 5 preview
Genia-Cooper-Toomua played together in the 2013 Bledisloe in Dunedin and that combination looked excellent. A very entertaining game. Cooper scored 18 of Australia’s 33 points. McKenzie was coach. Oh those were the days.
Don’t cut Quade Cooper from World Cup contention just yet
This comp sounds a lot like your idea from a few years back Alan.
World Rugby exploring brand new 'league of nations' tournament
I’ve seen this guy play at U20 world champs and he looked quite promising. He’s exactly the kind of guy we need to keep in union and nurture.
Mack Mason in line to replace Bernard Foley for Waratahs
Robbie Deans’ Grand Slam Tour of 2009:
• England W 18-9
• Ireland D 20-20
• Scotland L 8-9
• Wales W 30-12
Grand Slam on track with Wallabies' last-minute win over Scotland
The freshly-reappointed Reds coach would have you know that Frisby offers cover at both 9 and 10 too…
Another Bledisloe loss, and still more RWC questions
Oh man, too hard to pick. Where’s that German octopus?
Super Rugby Expert tipping: Semi finals
You mean this one? http://www.theroar.com.au/2015/04/22/the-carlos-cup-the-trophy-youve-never-heard-of/
SPIRO: The ARU must honour the Anzacs by creating the Tom Richards Shield
Only considering cross-conference games:
Team——-P-W-Pts
Hurricanes-7-6–29
Chiefs—–5-4–19
Crusaders–5-3–15
Bulls——4-3–14
Highlanders4-3–14
Stormers—6-3–14
Lions——5-3–12
Brumbies—4-2–11
Waratahs—4-2–10
Cheetahs—6-2—9
Sharks—–3-2—8
Reds——-5-1—7
Blues——5-1—6
Rebels—–3-1—5
Force——6-0—4
Structural unfairness destroying Super Rugby
I’ve looked into this as well back in 2011 (http://www.theroar.com.au/2011/07/08/reds-strong-but-australian-rugby-is-weak/). If you recreate the leader where you only consider “cross-conference” games, you see who are the genuinely good teams. That then correlates well with their finals performance. I’m at work now, but I’ll get back to you with numbers on 2012, 2013, 2014 later.
Structural unfairness destroying Super Rugby
A trophy similar to the Ranfurly Shield? Sounds just like an article I read here last week…
SPIRO: The ARU must honour the Anzacs by creating the Tom Richards Shield
Why is nobody talking about the chance there are no Kiwi sides next week?… 😂
Super Rugby Pacific tipping week 15: Everyone playing for second