We all know the drill by now, too well unfortunately. Reasonably decent build-up into The Rugby Championship season, players picked from the best-performed Super Rugby sides, things are looking up.
Then the first flogging comes. And the Wallabies promise they’ll learn from it. But they don’t change anything. And they get flogged again. And this time they promise they’ll really learn from it. And we stupidly believe it to a degree.
Then comes a lucky win, and with it some signs that perhaps they are learning from their mistakes, heading in the right direction.
Give them a bit of time, you know – new coach, injuries, new personnel, new approach, new game plan.
However, the beatings continue, and moral does not improve. Stupid mistakes prevail. Worse, the same stupid mistakes prevail.
They may or may not be the worst group of players to ever wear the Wallabies jersey, and everyone has an opinion on why.
Then comes the win. That really good win that comes from a display of which we all knew they were capable.
Things have clicked. Combinations are blooming. Predictions are made, and confidence swells. We’re back, we’re on our way, again.
Then it happens again. The earth-shattering loss. And the cycle resumes.
That’s where we are with the Wallabies again right now. After a display at Twickenham last weekend that most of us would prefer to forget about, the Wallabies have again put an impressive win on the board, accounting for Italy 50-20 in Turin.
It’s just a shame I’m not game to get excited by it.
That even seems a touch unfair, too. There were so many improvements on the previous week in London that it’s hard to believe it was essentially the same side.
Breakdown intensity was better, defensive realignments after first phase were better. The scrum was even better, though that’s coming from a low base.
The backs looked dangerous when setting up option runners and set-plays. The ‘shovelball’ was handled pretty well by the Italian defence, on the whole, but when Quade Cooper, especially, and Matt Toomua really turned on their deft passing games, the Wallabies looked every bit like a team ready to bring up the half century.
It was, genuinely, a wonderful performance.
Nevertheless, we all know what that means, don’t we. And we all know how Ireland rarely let the Wallabies have their way. We know what’s coming.
And this is the worrying bit. Again.
So what was good against Italy, and should continue against Ireland on Saturday?
The attacking intent, certainly. In the last four outings, the Wallabies have put on a neat 150 points and scored 18 tries.
In the eight games prior to the Rosario win, the Wallabies had managed only nine tries and tallied 132 points.
Straight away, the shift in mindset is obvious. The Rosario game was the first time Toomua was used at inside centre – he replaced Christian Lealiifano at halftime – and there’s very little doubt that his structured game has been the perfect foil for Cooper’s ad lib play at 10.
It will be important to keep this up against Ireland, too, because as hard as we know they’ll be at the breakdown, they have only crossed the stripe 16 times in eight games this year.
During their five Six Nations games, they could only average one try per game, and there were two games in there where they didn’t score at all.
Certainly, it will be in the Wallabies’ interests to be the front-runners in Dublin.
What else?
Well, if Rosario is to be used as some kind of line in the sand for attacking mindset, what else sticks out is that the Wallabies are getting more out of their limited time with the ball.
In their last four outings, they’ve averaged less than 48 percent possession and just over 48 percent territory as well.
Only the third Bledisloe Test saw them finish with more territory and ball than the opposition. So while the Wallabies have managed 18 tries with less than half the ball in play, they’ve only conceded 11 despite spending more time in their own half.
In fairness though, the Wallabies first-phase defence hasn’t been the issue in 2013; it’s been the inability to re-align after broken play that’s brought them undone.
And what wasn’t flash in Turin? All the usual stuff, if we’re honest.
The scrum held reasonably well against a strong pack, but there are still a number of areas that will need addressing this week.
I think I counted three free kicks given against the Wallabies for packing too early, and even if Italian loosehead Michele Rizzo amplified things by not really taking the hit, this goes to Scott Allen’s point last week about adapting for opposition illegalities in-game.
There did look to be a more concerted eight-man scrummaging effort this time, but I’m still not entirely happy with the locks’ engagement height. I’ve been going on about this all year, I know, but it’s still there.
Rob Simmons was surprisingly good at blindside, but if Scott Fardy is declared fit to play Ireland, I expect Simmons will go back to lock for Sitaleki Timani, who once again was conspicuous by his absence around the park.
He wasn’t literally invisible, but it still amazes me that such bulk can have so little impact. I just don’t get it, and I wonder sometimes if I’m judging him harshly. Perhaps someone can tell me what I’m missing.
Anyway, the worry for the Wallabies now is their consistent inconsistency. Think the Second and Third Lions Tests, or Newlands to Rosario, or Dunedin to Twickenham.
They’ve got a shocking habit of winning one in a row, which makes this game in Dublin all the more dangerous.
So I want to get excited about the win in Turin, I really do. Sadly, and perhaps finally, recent experience is ruling the emotions. And because of that, there’s just no way I’m letting myself get too far ahead.
Simoc
Guest
What we have seen is that Australia can beat weaker teams as expected but not the strong teams at the moment. Hopefully it is a work in progress and keeping the same combinations of players should help. If it takes to the World Cup to get it right, thats ok. So far we see Cooper is capable at 10, Folau is a world beater, Genia is out of confidence, the forwards are competitive but not dominating and there is plenty to improve on generally. The team is capable but not currently up to SA or AB levels.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
'The Irish will reckon that if the weather is in their favour and BOD’s body can just hang on for another 80 minutes' I often wonder whether this sort of view is only a fan's view or whether it's mirrored by the players. Why would Ireland prefer to play in wet weather? They have a number of world class backs.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
Pot: one edit - Murray was only sub for the 3rd Test.
Bakkies
Guest
What's annoying about Timani is his lack of skills application (you could say he is not the only one). His handling is poor and he isn't convincing in the lineout either. I am not sure what Montpellier see in him as they play a fast offloading game which requires hitting rucks and they need extra depth in the lineout. They are also very strong in the scrum and that is much higher then what's expected in Australia.
jeznez
Roar Guru
Scott - my frustration is that in his first season with the Tahs he was playing much tighter and doing the job I wanted him to do. Against Samoa on his Wallaby debut he started presenting himself as a runner and dropped about four passes cold which had him cop a heap of flak. Since then it is like he has been under instruction to make himself a ball carrying option. I just want him to revert to playing hard over the ball. Both focus in his game to play that tighter role and fitness/discipline to maintain his feet and be effective smashing rucks seems to be missing - and has been for a couple of years now.
scottmit
Roar Rookie
The tahs seem to play him in pods 2 off the ruck - where you'd expect the 6-8 to be. The games I saw of him playing for South were the same. He's just not been taught to play tight and its huge shame.
onetruegame
Guest
Starchild and moa, however annoying her voice was I bet she had a full set of vowels, and not every country in Australasia can boast that.
ChrisT
Guest
Maybe, although I'm not sure the Saffers should feel so secure after their performance against an injury hit and under cooked Wales. Yep, took all three chances and all credit to them - but there were only three, and one of those was from a knock-on followed by an off side. Does 2015 count as anytime soon?
Squirrel
Guest
Timani is a scapegoat, Mowen, Simmons and Horwill, BA and Slipper aren't exactly setting the pack on fire. Why pick on the biggest forward just cause he is meant to get over the gain line when none of the others are.
riddler
Guest
great point suzy about the locks binding.. drives me crazy whenever i see the overhead view.. sharpe used to do it as well.. amazes me that the our specialized coaches do not fix this..
Suzy Poison
Guest
I can see what Link is trying to do. He wants height in the line out and weight in the scrum. Hence he has picked two second row forwards as loose forwards. Fardy and now Simmons. On the soft grounds of Europe this is a good option. Jake White did the same thing in 2007, when he picked Danie Rossouw as a blind side in his WC winning team, for England. On another note, second row forwards are called lock's in the republic, which implies the scrumming position. The second row is the key that locks the whole scrum. I still maintain Australian second row forwards never bind correctly at scrum time. Next time you see an aerial shot of the Aussie scrum, you can see what I mean. The gap between the "locks" is massive. The AB's and Bok second rowers bind differently. But that's another story. The fact is Australia haven't had a single forward with any mongrel for some time, and that's a big problem in Europe. I don't rate Simmons either. Sorry he is a toiler, but he wouldn't make any of the Super 15 teams in South Africa, maybe the Kings first 15. The fact he has so many Gold caps, speaks volumes about the current crop of Wallabies. Probably the weakest Aussie forward pack in about 20yrs.
Muzza
Guest
Someone above made a comment about "attitude". You have to admit that the forward pack that turns up hungry on the day usually comes out on the winning side, all things being reasonably equal. At club or professional level we all know this and it is obvious on tv even that the WB forwards lack hunger and passion. The backs maybe suffer here too but with the right mix there is no denying their skill and attacking ability. The WB's need better forward leaders and coaches, plus at least one hard nut enforcer (if not eight of them).
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Very good point frustrated, did you happen to go by a previous moniker of cranky old prop ?
fredfunk
Guest
It was not wonderful. It was borderline against a very weak opponent. Honestly it is like watching club games. There is no physical edge no urgency and basic skill errors repeated week after week.
Squirrel
Guest
Agree Oliver, we are not a top 3 nation and wallaby fans expectations including my own were too high. Our forwards are still fairly woeful compared to previous wallaby sides and top 10 sides. I just want to see improvement and ticker. Without ticker it is not worth watching big mouthed talkers getting thrashed and then making excuses such as blaming refs, the grounds, linesman etc. It makes matters worse. This side wont be in contention in RWC 15 and Deansy semi will be seen in good light compared to this team who will struggle to get out of the pool as the forwards are crap still. Our backs maybe our saving grace but we still need some form of forwards. We have to see what 2014 brings but we cant keep the current forwards who have just not earned a gold jersey, Hooper and Moore exempt.
Oliver Matthews
Expert
stillmissit - feel free to expect them to be #1. You shout loud and proud at the TV when they play. All I'm saying is that those expectations are based upon a bygone time when the Aussies were world beaters. The memories of that period still linger and as a result so do the expectations. If you are happy with the frustrations and pain that the inconsistent Wallabies bring many fans, good luck to you. But you are going to feel frustrated and pained for a while to come. Whatever the reasons causing the lack of current success, and I agree with you there are a number, the truth is that Australia are not really a top 3 rugby side anymore and as each match comes along, there is a good chance they are no longer a top 4 side. They are lucky they are not playing the French this tour because based on how Les Bleus played on the weekend, they would rip the boys in Gold to pieces. If we were talking about just this year being a poor year then fine we could say that it's just a bit of a bump in the road. But this lack of consistently high quality performance has been going on for much longer. Long enough in fact that you could argue that their level of performance is now the norm - not a hiccup. So I'll get stuffed while you keep expecting them to be #1. I'll be happy and contented that my England side are beginning to rock and roll and you can look forward to more weeks of screaming at the TV.
frustrated old forward
Guest
Gentlemen In my humble opinion all the wb followers here are missing a major point. Whilst we have the situation where we have colts teams playing uncontested scrums why bother. In Brisbane we have the ssituation where at under sixteen level the clubs structure a competition based on " pre, post and mid" .This refers to the private school comp.of 8 games.How are we to develop anything when any player who is not correct at sixteen at their school can't get a game.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
One constant of this Wallaby roller coaster of the last 10 years has been the solid defence. Teams even the AB's had to work damn hard to get over the line. This year starting from the 3rd Lions game it has been abysmal leaking far too many tries. I'd like to see the Wallabies regain there defensive mojo with saturday being a good start.
niwdeyaj
Guest
Surely Scotland is also a banana skin?... and Wales?... we're due for a loss against them... Get excited Brett, the Wallabies aren't doing THAT bad... the situation is not as catastrophic as many Roarers seem to believe. Personally I think the loss to England will prove to be a good thing in the long run - the boys were genuinely hurting after that one and I think it's one of those experiences that will make the team tougher in future. Too often (almost always in recent times) we've been on the sunny side of close calls so it's good to be on the recieving end for a change... that's what builds character, not get-out-of jail wins against Wales, SA and the AIG's...
Suzy Poison
Guest
I think McKenzie, is obviously still learning at this level. His concept of a running game that Australians can buy into, was brutally crushed by the AB’s and Boks at Suncorp. The running game will work against the lower ranked teams, (no disrespect to Argentina and Italy), who are not as good at counterattacking play. But it’s failed badly against teams that have a good defence like the AB’s and Boks. Teams that will hurt you on turnovers. Earlier this year, the Boks racked a 44-10 scoreline, in the first game of the season against Italy. Then in the next game, they really struggled to grind out a win against Scotland. Let’s see what Wallaby team turns up against Ireland?