Australia’s team, especially its pace attack, for the first Test in Brisbane looks good, and gives an Australian fan hope we could pull off an upset this summer.
Fans are encouraged by Ryan Harris staying fit for four Tests in a row in England, as well as Mitchell Johnson’s apparent newfound confidence; predicting (or praying) there’s no way he’ll reach the lows of previous Ashes series.
Among the starting pace attack, however, there lies a number of big uncertainties.
One is whether Harris can stay fit for five Tests (especially if Shane Watson is unable to bowl early on in the series).
Secondly, the biggest if, is whether Johnson can put his talents to good use and deliver an at least servicable performance.
Only if these two scenarios play out can Australia win the Ashes, and even then, it will be extremely tight.
Even the most enthusiastic Johnson backer should not expect him to have average under 25 with the ball this summer. It won’t happen.
The fact is, Johnson will go for runs, but the key is whether he’ll be able to, in between the inevitable wides and loose balls, roughen up the English batsmen (and tailenders), and take crucial wickets to break partneships.
If he has 20 wickets at an average of 30 after five Tests, he’s more than done his job.
This writer doesn’t expect Nathan Lyon to run through the English at any stage in the series, so Johnson’s firepower becomes crucial in us taking 20 wickets.
The doomsday scenario would be, say, if Harris breaks down by the third Test and is ruled out for the rest of the series, and Mitch, perhaps used wrongly by Michael Clarke, gets it completely wrong early on in the series; leaving the selectors with no choice but to drop him before any more damage is done.
If this occurs, and halfway through the series we see an attack with the likes of Ben Hilfenhaus and Ben Cutting partnering Peter Siddle, we stand little hope of winning another Test.
Fans may scoff at the possibility of this eventuating, but given Harris’ fitness record and Johnson’s career record, it’s an all-too-real possibility.
This danger gives even more merit to the idea of playing James Faulkner instead of Nathan Lyon at the Gabba if the wicket looks quick, bouncy and grassy, as has been reported.
With Shane Watson unlikely to bowl in Brisbane, Australia must be wary of putting too big a workload too early on Harris and Johnson.
With the wicket seaming, the combatative Tasmanian, as part of a four-pronged pace attack, may be Australia’s best chance of not only going one-nil up after a Test, but also setting the other quicks up for a consistent Ashes series.
Since being introduced to international cricket early in the year, Faulkner has not let Australia down yet.
If the Johnson and Harris stories don’t go to script and the doomsday scenario is played out, Australia could be two Tests down by Sydney.
Even if Faulkner plays only a couple of Tests this summer, the variety and tenacity he offers could be vital for Australia’s hopes.
Bobbo7
Guest
Good post. I still think England will be too strong. Warner and Watson need to fire if Australia have any chance... And that's a big if at this stage
Timmuh
Roar Guru
Both Hazelwood and Faulkner have been rested and/or had bowling restrictions placed on them, apparently in readiness for Adelaide. That suggests both Siddle and Harris will have management enforced time on the sideline in one Test. Though, it may be that Johnson would not play in Adelaide.
James
Guest
well trott just made 80 and kp got to 50 and then just started playing the fool which i cant see him doing at only 50 in a real test. kp doesnt look injured at all. little dissapointed that no one went on but i suppose england probably had a plan that you get to to 50 then take chances and hopefully get out and so let everyone get a bat which is what happened bar carberry
JimmyB
Guest
That's the spirit Nudge. ;)
Nudge
Guest
2 all or australia 2/1
Calum
Guest
Strong post bayman. A balanced review. Still think that home advantage, a demising trott, a cook slightly beneath his best due to captaincy and potentially a couple injuries (prior, KP) mean that it should be closer than the 3 zip in in England, but still England have got be favourites. Fingers crossed for plenty of exciting cricket
ScottUK
Guest
I'm rather looking forward to a follow up post from you bee bee if Broad gets off to a flier.
JimmyB
Guest
Great post Bayman.
Bayman
Guest
Good point, Christo!
Mark
Guest
Absolutely! The bowling looks strong and there is good backup. The batting is the problem and has been for quite a few years. Come on batsmen - makes some hundreds and big ones at that!
Christo the Daddyo
Guest
"in the meantime, keep away from Tom Waterhouse!" Well, this is good advice at ANY time!
DJW
Guest
Not to mention an accurate summary of Nathan Lyon
James
Guest
i actaully think the english batsmen will be looking forward to the green tops then the english bowlers
Pope Paul VII
Guest
>
Bayman
Guest
Nothing would please me more than seeing Australia win the upcoming Ashes series. The only thing which could match it is to see England get beaten. That is what I want. It's not, I fear, what I'm going to get. As much as I love the sight, and the idea, of tearaway Aussie fast men terrorising English batsmen I fail to see the logic that implies our vast array of quicks will simply overwhelm England out here in God's country. Let's not forget that the attack we all thought we might now have, Cummins, Pattinson and Starc, will be watching from the grandstand. What's left is serviceable and, it must be said, not bad for the second string. Johnson is, well, Johnson. Talented, mercurial but undeniably Johnno. Can any of us, hand on heart, confidently predict a Johnson inspired collapse of English batting. Siddle, who's heart is bigger than the Collingwood president's ego, is a worker but not exactly a cutting edge. Faulkner has played one Test only and was not disgraced but that does not necessarily imply an untamed brute. Harris is of proven quality and, unfortunately, also proven quantity. History suggests all five Tests are beyond him. The often under-appreciated Lyon is unlikely to be running through many England batting lineups. He has a couple of Test five fors to his name and he has played more Tests and taken more Test wickets, at a better average, than Tim May who some rate as a pretty decent Test off-spinner. But Nathan Lyon is no Graeme Swann. The wicketkeepers match up reasonably well if we ignore the fact that Prior has more of everything than Haddin. Tests, runs, hundreds, fifties, catches, stumpings, batting average. Still, Haddin is a fighter but then he's going to have to be. As for our batting we've got Clarke and..... Clarke and....then, well, there's Clarkey. His 24 Test hundreds is three times more than the rest of the top six put together. Rogers (1), Warner (3), Watson (3), Smith (1) with Bailey yet to get off the mark. England, meanwhile, has Cook (25), Trott (9), Pietersen (23), Bell (20) and Root (2). Carberry, at least, balances out George Bailey. Looking at the numbers it is not beyond the realms of possibility to assume that England's batting lineup will handle our fast men slightly more convincingly than our batsmen will handle Anderson, Broad, Swann and pick any other fast bowler you like out of Bresnan, Finn, Tremlett. So while I would love to see an Aussie victory the notion that all we have to do is unleash our quicks and the job is done is fanciful at best and downright illogical at worst. Any deck which suits us will suit them and when it's no longer green they have Swann while Lyon has already shown that he is no guarantee on a fifth day pitch. My advice to Aussie fans is to sit back and enjoy the cricket. Support the boys, scream and yell, but don't go running to Tom Waterhouse to put the house on Australia - and I don't care how many fast bowlers we think we've got. I don't think it will be 5-0 England, as Sir Ian Botham suggests, but I do think the tourists deserve to be favourites and they will emphasise that point by winning the series. An Australian series victory will defy form and logic but it is still something for which to strive. Of course, stranger things have happened. Benaud leading us to victory, 4-0, in 1958/59 when many claimed the England team to be the best ever. That team, however, had names like Benaud, Harvey, Davidson, O'Neill, Grout, McDonald, Burke and Lindwall. Maybe after this series we'll all be lauding the names of Bailey, Smith, Warner, Watson, Haddin, Johnson et al. Let's hope so but, in the meantime, keep away from Tom Waterhouse!
Pope Paul VII
Guest
The bowling is fine. The batting is the dodgy bit.
Hookin' YT
Guest
"This writer doesn’t expect Nathan Lyon to run through the English at any stage in the series" Is an attack? A teaspoon of cement for table 9 please.
Disco
Roar Guru
Oi! Oi! Oi! Yawn.
Hookin' YT
Guest
"Ben Hilfenhaus and Ben Cutting partnering Peter Siddle, we stand little hope of winning another Test." But we can win with Johnson? "playing James Faulkner instead of Nathan Lyon at the Gabba" is a smart move. Kudos.
Tom
Guest
I stopped reading after your ad hominine attack on Nathan Lyon.....Keep churning out this level of article and you will probably be a 'rookie' for a while...