New Zealand’s shellacking at the hands of Mexico in the inter-continental playoff for next year’s World Cup must surely raise questions over the future of the Oceania Football Confederation.
Mexico secured passage through to Brazil on Wednesday following an emphatic 9-3 aggregate (5-1; 4-2) victory over the Kiwis across two legs, with a massive gulf in class between the two sides clearly evident throughout the fixtures.
Currently ranked 79th in the FIFA world rankings, New Zealand are the only side from Oceania in the top 100, and the only nation with even a remote chance of qualifying for football’s biggest stage.
The task the All Whites must face to qualify for the World Cup every four years is a familiar one for those of us across the Tasman.
Upon finishing atop of the Oceania qualifying stage, which the Kiwis usually achieve, they must then be forced into a two-legged playoff with a side from one of the five other continental confederations – in Mexico’s case, Confederation of North, Central American and Caribbean Association Football (CONCACAF).
Any fan of the Socceroos prior to 2005 will recall the dreaded feeling this would cause when a team the calibre of Argentina or Uruguay lay in waiting.
New Zealand Football has made previous attempts to work around this difficult situation, including a 2011 proposal to FIFA for the Oceania qualifier to be allowed entry to the final group stage of Asian Football Confederation (AFC) qualification.
Such a move would see the inter-continental playoff scrapped, however FIFA rejected the initiative.
When Australia was finally accepted into the AFC in 2006, and passage to the World Cup made simpler through more qualification spots, a new era of football in the country was born.
Two successive World Cup qualifications, as well as the subsequent growth in popularity of the sport at a domestic level, has made this progression abundantly clear.
Surely New Zealand’s inception into Asia is now a matter of if, not when.
However, this has the potential to raise more issues than it solves. The All Whites’ departure from Oceania would certainly serve as a nail-in-the-coffin for the Confederation, which would be unable to survive with minnows such as New Caledonia carrying it on its shoulders.
Although the region is mostly made up of tiny island nations in the Pacific, and transition would take considerable time, the appropriate football governing bodies must start considering the idea of Oceania fully integrating into the AFC.
It may not happen overnight, but if FIFA is unwilling to act on the issue surrounding the inter-continental playoff system, then it may be the inevitable solution.
Cozza
Guest
NZ into Asia won't happen in the short term, NZ does not bring anything to the table. No professional league, no TV rights cash, no major corporate backers... Australia snuck out of Oceania at the right time and NZ is now left holding the baby....too bad for them, and they can thank Charlie Dempsey for that. NZ can rot in Oceania for another decade.
Arto
Guest
@ Sleemo: I agree. This sounds like a good way to incorporate the OFC into the AFC... The only obstacles I see to something like this happening are CONEMBOL saying no & the "East Asian" nations saying no - neither region benefits from this (at least not obviously) and so in the FIFA world of politics neither gets anything in return for their approval and thus this is a bad deal for them.
Sleemo
Guest
Matt Rowan's idea is good insofar as the top two OFC teams are ingratiated into the AFC qualifying process. What I would do, though, is not absorb them into the third round of 20 (at the expense of two AFC teams) but I would add them to the fourth round where there are currently 10 teams. The final round would therefore be as it is now except with the sixth team in each group occupying the bye, and instead of the two third-placed teams playing off for the right to play a team from another continent for a place in the World Cup, the two third-placed teams play each other for the fifth spot (adding OFC's half spot to AFC's current 4.5 spots). That way, everybody wins. The AFC as it currently stands does not lose any places, the OFC nations other than NZ have something realistic and meaningful to play for in their qualification round, both the AFC and OFC's intercontinental half-spots are gone, and a qualifying process which is more reflective of the difficulty of qualifying for a World Cup is in place (i.e. top two in a six-team group qualify automatically, the two third-placers play off for the last spot). Wouldn't cause too much disruption to the system as it currently stands and wouldn't (one would think) be a particularly expensive format to implement with only one extra home and away game per final-round team, and two less inter-continental playoff tie costs avoided.
Arto
Guest
@ Kelly Perazzolo: +1 That learned him goodly!!! ;-)
Justin Thighm
Roar Guru
Might be good for NZ but it will destroy the other Oceania football nations. They just need to be better prepared and organise more internationals against higher ranked countries, maybe establish an annual tournament with countries like Australia, Japan and Korea. The AFC is already huge in terms of distance and differences of cultures. Extending it from Uzbekistan to Tahiti will cover more than half the globe. Australia was very very lucky to get into Asia and the chances of FIFA combining AFC and Oceania Federation are remote.
Kelly Perazzolo
Roar Rookie
For the record, there are more people in New Zealand than in Greater Melbourne according to the latest census (3,999,982 vs 4,242,048).
Kelly Perazzolo
Roar Rookie
"Your comments are bordering on insulting to Australian soccer." Jorji, I'm sorry you got that impression - I have nothing but good things to say about Australian soccer. I was simply stating a scenario that might arise if the remaining OFC teams join Asia. "NZ is not even the population of Melbourne" Not sure what your point is here. The population of Guam is 160.000 and they are a full AFC member. "My advice is make soccer your biggest sport, have a fully pro league with multi divisions and qualify for all tournaments and you might be worth talking to." Currently there are 6 divisions in NZ + a separate franchise league. I'd be all for the NRFL Premier to go Pro (Currently semi-pro) They also have the second largest participation in soccer at grassroot levels (boys & girls). The thing is, why should NZ meet all these criterias when most AFC members can't? I'd be shocked if half of the AFC members meet all the points that you've outlined and Australia isn't one of them.
Matt
Guest
Bad idea as this would weaken the world cup considerably. The West Asians need to prove they are good enough and not get handouts when there are clearly not good enough. In that region there is only 1 team that will be at the world cup in 2014 and that is Iran. Otherwise East Asia + Australia is where the strongest area of Asia is at. It is a very flawed idea. There is a reason why it does not happen in world cup qualifiers as teams need to be proven against any team from the confederation that they the best teams. It seems absurd not to send the best teams in the confederation as this idea suggest. The current system is not broken so don’t fix it. So what you are suggesting is that one of Japan, Korea Republic or Australia will have to miss out to accommodate for the likes of Jordan is beyond a joke. THERE IS A GOOD REASON WHY THE OIL NATIONS MISSES OUT. THEY ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH. TOUGH LUCK. IRAN MANAGES TO QUALIFY AFTER MISSING OUT IN 2010 BECAUSE THEY ARE GOOD ENOUGH. END OF STORY.
Matt
Guest
I agree that this is a solution worth considering, but it is not as simple as what you are saying. I would suggest that AFC needs to approve this and the other confederations will also need to approve this especially CONCACAF and CONEMBOL. It doesn't matter for CONEMBOL (South America) as they will win the playoffs but CONCACAF will not look forward to meeting a fifth best South American team (Uruguay, anyone?). CONCACAF will not look forward to seeing Costa Rica or Honduras meet Uruguay (Mexico should qualify directly every time). The hardest nut to crack is the nut Sepp Blatter and FIFA. They are alright giving a world cup in the desert (Qatar) but ...
Matt
Guest
Bad idea as this would weaken the world cup considerably. The West Asians need to prove they are good enough and not get handouts when there are clearly not good enough. In that region there is only 1 team that will be at the world cup in 2014 and that is Iran. Otherwise East Asia + Australia is where the strongest area of Asia is at. It is a very flawed idea. There is a reason why it does not happen in world cup qualifiers as teams need to be proven against any team from the confederation that they the best teams. It seems absurd not to send the best teams in the confederation as this idea suggest. The current system is not broken so don't fix it. So what you are suggesting is that one of Japan, Korea Republic or Australia will have to miss out to accommodate for the likes of Jordan is beyond a joke. THERE IS A GOOD REASON WHY THE OIL NATIONS MISSES OUT. THEY ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH. TOUGH LUCK. IRAN MANAGES TO QUALIFY AFTER MISSING OUT IN 2010 BECAUSE THEY ARE GOOD ENOUGH. END OF STORY.
Ballymore
Guest
It needs to be in AFC's interest to accept NZL. I propose it would be because: - NZL is a developed country, with the infrastructure and wealth that comes with it - The All Whites are a decent team, and would add value to Asian Qualifying / Cup due their quality - It would remove the AFC's issue with the "Cross-Confederation" in the A-League - More members means more bargaining power + new markets - Similar timezone to East Asia (PRC, KOR, AUS & JPN) Also, would an OFC-less NZL open up new opportunties to qualify for FIFA tournaments (WCC + Confeds Cup?) That would be beneficial I suspect.
Football_Wunderkind
Roar Pro
I don't think that New Zealand is really that far behind the best of the rest. (They will struggle to beat a Spain or Brazil) Leading into the World Cup, NZ beat Serbia 1-0. I remember it well because, at one point, Nemanja Vidic had to quell the crowd with a megaphone. Then that Serbian team went on to beat Germany in the World Cup. NZ drew with Italy at the World Cup and on another could have snatched a win. With the right tactics they are a match for most teams. The NZ debacle was not a sign they are so weak but actually it was a great learning opportunity. They will be better off now. Yes it was really tactically naive but all they need is a good European or South American coach and they will be a good shot for Russia 2018. They have all the right ingredients to be more than a handful. * A solid spine with a high class defender in Winston Reid. * A World Class attacking midfielder in Marcos Rojas * A quality FWD line with varying options for different situations. * Up and coming speedy full backs They face the South Americans in the next qualifying campaign so it will be tough to see them in Russia 2018 but don't write them off. Oh and please have them join the Asian Qualifying stages at some point. If not for Russia, then for Qatar 2022.
Johnno
Guest
2400metres above sea-level. Or should I add Brazil vs the Solomons in Rio at the Maracana, 20-0 lol. Think the socceroos were bad vs Brazil, wait to you the solomon islands or Fiji. Or Uguguay in Montevideo at the centanario VS PNG lol.
Johnno
Guest
You can . Oceania are a waste of time, i think fifa shouldn't even bother acknodleging them, NZ go to Asia, let our former colines rot, there tiny and a waste of time. There soccer is going no where, the Solomons what a joke, Tonga,Vanatu, New caledonia and Tahiti still owned by the french, tiny colonial play things we toy with, Aust/NZ and FIFA do not need Oceania, there a waste of time, there soccer is going no where. Do you think Tonga soccer, could afford the operating costs to compete in Asia, heck they could barely afford an affir to Brisbane, and that's jsut for there senior teams. You have to fund 6 teams, 2 seniors (men and women) and the under-20's and 17's. Oceania can be abandoned to rot, there a waste of time little usless countries who contribute nothing to football. NZ to Asia, and abandon oceania, Solomon Islands and Tonga are not worthy of half a world cup spot, to enter a play off. Could you imagine Mexico VS Tonga at the Azteca in front of 105,000 people at altitude, Bigger stadium than all of tonga's popualtion 103,000 lol . 30-0 would be on the cards, and that's a soccer score.
Jorji Costava
Guest
You would need to get all the confederations to agree to this convenient little deal. Good luck now that CONMEBOL is due to play off against Oceania in the next World cup cycle. May I remind you, New Zealand created Oceania. You guys wanted this. Not much in it for Asia to make any changes. I do like the idea of AFC absorbing all the slots for all the FIFA events that OFC "donates" on the proviso the OFC leading team gets to go into the qualifiers in Asia.
Rusty Woodger
Roar Pro
I agree that NZ's future is in Asia, but what then happens to Oceania if the Kiwis leave and it stays? Can't just leave those nations to play among themselves. Do they retain a half-spot for WC qualification? That would potentially bring about match-ups for the inter-continental playoff like Argentina vs New Caledonia or, God knows, American Samoa!
Griffo
Roar Guru
Yes we have always been listed as ASEAN, but have not been a full member until recently. ASEAN had indicated on ratifying our membership that they realise we are on a different level and may not wish to participate in every tournament they have. Will be interesting to see what we do participate in there. The EAFF Cup was by invitation at Japan's request IIRC (not sure about Sth Korea and China but obviously they agreed). Perhaps we will get more invitations from EAFF rather than ASEAN Cup but not as easy I should think as it was prior to membership.
Mike
Roar Guru
Not quite, we joined ASEAN back in August. :) Although at this stage it's up in the air if we'll compete in the AFF Cup or not.
jamesb
Roar Guru
I'd be very surprised if FIFA allows an East Asia, West Asia split. In East Asia as stated above, we have Australia, South Korea, Japan, North Korea and China for 2.5 spots? I don't know about you guys, but that is one difficult confederation for a country like China to qualify from. (and Australia as well). Also FIFA would want China to qualify. That's why in recent weeks there's been talk about a 40 team world cup, with a possibility of two extra Asian teams.
Jorji Costava
Guest
They were 5 to 1 down, what difference would it have made? NZ needed a 2 to 1, 1 all or a win over in Mexico to have a chance. The news actually gets worse for NZ soccer because on the next World Cup qualifier in 4 years they will play off against a CONMEBOL. the South Americans for a spot as they rotate the qualifiers. We had Uruguay a couple of times and Diego Maradona's Argentina going that route. Good luck is all I can say!