The year is 2023. The AFL is two years off being officially handed the keys to the Docklands Stadium in Melbourne and owning outright a $1 billion asset and money-making machine for the code.
The 18 teams have enjoyed varying levels of success over the past 11 years, none more so than the Suns and Giants who between them amassed four premierships from a total of six grand final appearances (combined).
Gary Ablett Jr was able to retire as a premiership winner and Brownlow Medal winner at two clubs, as well as add a Norm Smith Medal to his personal collection of accolades.
The Giants managed to keep intact their forward line from the drafts of 2011 and 2013, and the three-pronged attack of Boyd, Patton and Cameron has been one of the most damaging the league has ever seen.
Eddie McGuire is still whining that everything is set up to “not allow” Collingwood to win the premiership every year, even though Collingwood now manage to travel outside of Victoria just twice per season.
The plan from the AFL money men is to once again increase the size of the league now that the two new teams are well and truly settled into the AFL.
The above hypothetical scenario is what the AFL would want to happen. They want to see a return on the investment that they have made into the Gold Coast and West Sydney, though I don’t think they want Collingwood to travel only twice a year.
The AFL want everything that comes with success for those new teams: increased sponsorship, increased membership, increased crowds and increased awareness.
Where, then, are the areas that the AFL may consider for any new teams in the future?
For that discussion we come back to the current day, to consider what locations the AFL may have already identified and the strengths and weaknesses of those respective options.
The following locations will be thoroughly scrutinised and investigated, with all due diligence completed before any official decision is made.
Perth (Population: 1.9 million approx)
A third team from the Western Australia capital and a footymad state would be a no-brainer.
Both the West Coast Eagles and Fremantle will be playing out of the Burswood Stadium with a capacity of 60-65,000. For the AFL, a third team in WA allowing two games a weekend in Perth would be enticing.
The WA government would also be thrilled at the prospect of an additional 11 games at the venue during the AFL season. Guaranteed support from the locals and the local media and a plethora of playing talent make this an attractive option.
North Queensland (Population: 400,000 approx)
The AFL has ensured that one game per season has been played in Cairns since the Suns debuted in 2011, and that continues again in 2014.
The team could be predominately based out of Cairns and play three or four home games in Townsville as it will be representative of the whole region.
The top end of Queensland and the south-east corner will be serviced by full-time team, ensuring an additional 11 games in the state.
Canberra (Population: 412,000 approx)
The nation’s capital has been hosting three Giants games a year since their inception in 2012, with the deal expiring in 2022.
Would Canberra be ready to add an AFL team alongside the Brumbies and Raiders?
Population will be a key factor but so will proximity to key markets such as Sydney and Melbourne.
Northern Territory (Population: 235,200 approx)
The team could be based in Darwin and play out of a redeveloped TIO Stadium. There’s also the possibility of playing two games a year at Alice Springs as once again this team is representative of the entire Northern Territory, not just the Top End.
There are two games scheduled for NT in 2014, with Darwin and Alice Springs to host one each.
The population of Darwin will be one of the key factors that drive any decision on a team here, as will the incredibly hot weather. A positive on the weather front is that at least it is dry season throughout the AFL season.
Tasmania (Population: 512,200 approx)
A lot has been written about the great divide between the south and the north in the Apple Isle. Would the lure of a full-time AFL team representing the state be enough to bring the two areas together in compromise, playing half the home games in Hobart and half in Launceston?
If not, I guess that Hawthorn (Launceston) and North Melbourne (Hobart) will continue to play there and reap the rewards.
A lot is also made of there not being a big enough economy or enough local corporate support for an AFL team. I don’t know if I fully subscribe to this theory only because any corporate backing would not need to necessarily come from Tasmania itself.
Corporate backers would also not necessarily be looking at only the team. Rather, they would be looking at getting exposure in the league.
I think that the above areas are the most likely for the next two new teams, which will be looked at in 10-15 years.
The outside possibilities for expansion after the above areas have either been included or dismissed could possibly include Newcastle, Wollongong/South Coast, the Sunshine Coast, and Wellington.
The biggest decision that the AFL will need to make is how many teams they see as the ideal number for the top tier of the game.
Do they consider relocation of a Melbourne team as an option? Possibly entice a team to base themselves in a new area (say Canberra or NT) while attempting to do what the Swans and to a degree the Lions have and maintain a fanbase in Melbourne?
I doubt whether many fans would accept their team being relocated and only playing away games in Melbourne, even if it ensured the long-term survival of their club.
You cannot add teams continuously and expect the quality of game to be upheld. Australia does not have an endless supply of athletes like the USA, but we do have just as many sports that are played at the professional level.
The league is set up in a way where, over time, each team will have a legitimate chance of winning the premiership for a few years based on the draft, salary cap and reasonably strict player movement regulations.
In recent years we have seen teams buck the trend for the need to ‘bottom out’ in order to rebuild a competitive side, particularly Geelong, Hawthorn and Sydney.
It is those teams that are leading a new way of innovative thinking on how to remain competitive for an extended period of time, regularly playing finals and giving themselves a shot at multiple premiership glory without the low picks that accompany poor on-field results from the previous year.
To be kept in mind is that the more teams that get added to the competition, the less chance your team has of winning the Premiership.
So where will the next two teams be located? What is the ideal number of teams for the AFL? If there is a relocation to accommodate a specific number of teams, which Melbourne based side will be most closely looked at to move?
And will the current format of the league remain intact with a eight-team finals system, or will the league look to conferences?
Jarrah Hoey
Guest
It's fair to say that considering new franchises continue to take part in the AFL in the past, there will likely to be even more in the near future but will that mean that will definately be the case? That's a good question. Say we assume it does sooner or later in years to come, here's my suggestion of potential future AFL expansion teams. 19. GREATER HOBART GREENS Enter comp: 2023 Colours: All dark green with exception to white monogram Having a team that's exclusive to Hobart rahter than an all-Tasmanian regional team takes away the fuss of the divsion between Launceston/Northern Tassie and the South and therefore Hawthorn's fan base in Launceston can continue to take place including their four home games played there per season. As for the Kangaroos, lets face it - people in Canberra thought they were there to stay and so did those on the Gold Coast - they are a club that seem to fly in then nick off after a while letting down all the regional locals whom became attached to the club so why would a repeat not occur to Southern Tasmanians in this case? Lets assmue the Kangas will find another 2nd home base for example, Ballarat. Also have the word 'Greater' in the club's name removes the idenity of the club restricting supporters to those in the south and therefore provides Tasmanians an option over whether to follow the Hawks or this new club Greater Hobart Greens. 20. PERTH PATRIOTS Enter comp: 2024 Colours: Black, Red and Mid-green A 3rd WA team is not an impractical decison and while it might seem a question of what specific part of the west the potential franchise should be exclusive to, to remove such fuss, it should be noted there is no WA based team currently in the AFL known as Perth and therefore perhaps removes such fuss due to it being the captal of the state nonetheless. Although there is team known as the Perth Devils in bombers colours in the WAFL, the new franchise could be a paralell to )similar to Port Adelaide from the SANFL to Port Power in the AFL) to that club hense adding an extra colour to their uniform being green in this case thus a different nickname. I think also, punters would probably request no more cheesy big headed colours such as oranges, teals, purples etc.
Declan McAllister
Guest
Maybe they should be 2 new teams in the 2015 afl season. New teams Wollongong dragons and Newcastle scorpions.
Declan
Guest
I Think they should be more teams in the afl like a team in Canberra called Canberra Scorpions and another team called Wellington Dragons.
Gerry
Guest
Set up a promotion/relegation system like the soccer leagues in Europe. This will settle where the next teams can come from, generate vitally required excitement and interest and probably cash back into the local state competitions, which act as feeders for the AFL teams at present. It will also give the winners of those competitions some great rewards. Possibly ease and clean out some of the struggling Melbourne clubs and each state will be given the opportunity to field its current team set up. The only thing that will need changes are the colours of the jerseys and their nicknames. There seems to be a lot of doubling up when it comes to nicknames i.e Eagles, Magpies, Demons etc. For instance Norwood or Subiaco could get the chance to play in the AFL as their own team. The other side of that coin is that Western Bulldogs or Melbourne could see themselves drop back to their local state comp the VFL. Have not quite worked out how many teams would go up or down but probably two, with the team who wins the state premiership comp as automatic promotion and maybe a play off for the second spot. I realise that if any of the current AFL sides go down they would lose most if not all of their best players, hey but so maybe its time they needed a start afresh approach. There could be a second tier comp that say would include the two best teams from each of the state comps currently 5, correct me if I am wrong as I believe NSW,QLD, NT and ACT all play in the new NEAFL. that would make 10 and the remaining two teams would be the bottom two in the AFL. The second tier comp could be called the AFL Championship and the main AFL comp the AFL premiership. Yes I know its like the English EPL and you may not want anything like the poms but call them something different then. I am just suggesting those to demonstrate my point. Obviously the reserve teams of the AFL teams playing in the state comps would not be eligible for promotion, but I am sure this would not be a huge issue. If they do end up being premiers, then the promotional place would need to be decided by play off for the next best teams. Ahh I hear you say but that means the state comps would be missing two sides. Well ok just go to the next tier of competition down. You could say the plan is flawed as the gulf in skill etc between the AFL and local state comps and any amateur comps currently in play is too huge. Well this is the case in the soccer leagues too, but it seems to work to a certain degree. Just a suggestion. Probably will be poo pood but this would solve the argument as to where in the country the next teams are to come from; the parochial fan base will not be upset and historical significance of the respective clubs will remain intact. Listen if I was a Norwood or NT Thunder fan I would jump for joy at being able to play the AFL big boys wouldn't you??
Charles Goldstraw
Roar Rookie
That probably wont work. Although Norwood already have a reasonable amount of supporters, a 3rd South Australian team would cannibalize the supporter base.
Norwood SANFL
Guest
How about getting NORWOOD to join! This was the plan back in 1982, NORWOOD were going to leave the SANFL and join the VFL, but the Crows and Port got in their way!!! NORWOOD is one of the greatest clubs in Australian Football Histoty - former premiers, prime ministers and state founders have played for this club. Many of the Adelaide Oval grand stands are named after its former greats!
Gerry
Guest
Another Melbourne based team?? Outrageous!! this would be a disaster they cannot even support the current teams. Agree with Ballarat though as this is regional Victoria and historical. NT team would make the AFL unique as someone else stated. So would be great. Tas team is a MUST can't believe they have not got one already. Anybody who does not live in WA must understand that attempting to build another metropolis north is crazy most people cannot stand the heat in Perth now. More realistic would be to go south, past Bunbury and towards Albany. A third WA team is definitely workable. Either the Peel or Swan district areas. A team from NZ is good idea to give some global appeal. Canberra has to be there too. Further NSW and QLD teams are not plausible for a long time. So yes Melbourne teams would need to consider merging or relocating and to keep the number to 20. I do not think any more teams than this can be sustained.
Gerry
Guest
In my opinion there should be no more than 20 teams in the AFL competition. To make it a truly national game you will need teams representing The Northern Territory and the ACT (Canberra). Two new teams could come from Tasmania and WA and two struggling Victorian teams can relocate to the NT and ACT. Or if this does not seem plausible the two new teams from NT and Tasmania and one struggling Victorian team to relocate to ACT (Canberra).. After all WA already has two teams. In this way there will still be 8 or 9 Victorian teams in the competition to preserve its VFL roots and so as not to disrupt too much the history and fan base for the game.
Gerry
Guest
Names speak for themselves - Darwin Dingoes, Tassie Devils and Canberra Crusaders to complete the National set up.
Charles Goldstraw
Roar Rookie
Cant imagine Canberra ,North Queensland or Northern Territory having the support for an AFL team. The footy mad state of Tasmania could well have a team in 2023 if not before. A 3rd Perth team would easily work. And cities like Ballarat and Bendigo have a small hope in actually finding enough support for a team there. Personally I feel another Melbourne team would be the go. It would easily find enough support, mostly from disgruntled Fitzroy supporters who gave up following AFL when there club merged with the bears in 1996.
Glenn Innes
Guest
Ian - I know this thread is dead but are you really telling me the AFL wouldn't love three mid season games that consistently draw TV numbers over 3.5 million including good numbers in their non core states? Without State of Origin Rugby League would still probably virtually unheard of in the AFL states it was Origin that made the Melbourne Storm even thinkable.It gives Rugby League four grand finals a year in TV ratings terms something the AFL simply can't match.
The_Wookie
Roar Guru
I dont know about right, but its tough to schedule without hurting the season proper. I still think Origin should revert back to a carnival every 4 years in place of the preseason or post season. Combine it with the International Cup and youve got a quasi world cup situation.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Origin is the most dangerous competitior that rugby league has. It's pulling away sponsors, and cripples the middle third of the season. The AFL was right to abandon Origin.
The_Wookie
Roar Guru
The real reason is probably somewhere in between. Yes they take it for granted, but the economic concerns are daunting. ITs not just government funding, and a clean stadium. That wont get you to 35 million a year (the lowest AFL clubs) without a crap load of government input.
Gleen Innes
Guest
The point the AFL are missing (and a Tassie team would be big - forget about them following Melbourne clubs the same applied in NQ pre Cowboys) Having teams that represent areas that have a real passion for the sport mixed with harcore parochialism is never going to be a negative for a sporting League.
Gleen Innes
Guest
A team in Tasmania would be the AFL equivilant of of The North QLD Cowboys - similar population base and the Hobart Launceston thing is much like the Townsville Cairns rivalry,Also just as NQ is hardcore League territory Tasmania is about as hardore Australian Football as you can get. The real reason the AFL has not gone to Tassie is they take the joint for granted.They realise no rival code isever going to base a team there and look on a Tassie team as simply preaching to the converted.At least Rugby League were not so cynical about North QLD- they easily could have taken the same line as the AFL have in Tassie.
Gleen Innes
Guest
It would be a much tougher gig for a Rugby League team in Perth now (and I am a League man but the League threads are boring at the moment so I drifted over here) When the Reds first started there was no Union franchise and Fremantle were still in their infancy (indeed from memory they arrived the same year as the Reds)A WA team would just leak money simple as that. Storm boy is spot on better spending that money on media coverage with the aim of entering a team further down the track when the game has stronger foundations(ie mainstream public interest) As far as the AFL becoming an Australian NFL -will never happen - wherever you go in the States American Football is the dominant winter sport the AFL will never be dominanti in QLD or NSW just aint' gonna happen. The real battle is which of the two codes can build the bigger minority following in their non core States and I concede that Australian Football is winning that battle (comfortably) but there are some positives for Rugby League. AFL has nothing that can match State Of Origin - sure there is the AFL grand final but that is a one off game League has a trilogy with origin - quite ironic given Australian Football invented the concept. Also Australian Football has had widespread FTA coverage in the Northern States for forty years (I remember it was on seven live on Saturday Afternoon in SE QLD back in the seventies so people in the Rugby States have had plenty of time to look at it) Rugby League is relatively new to FTA down South so arguably has much more potential for growth.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Storm Boy, You can tell a real code warrior when they start blathering about codes they dont understand. The NBA plays an 82 game schedule, so thats 41 home games a year. The base salary cap is $59m - and if you want to talk Larry Bird exemptions, mid-level cap exemptions, sign-and-trade deals and the cap impact of The Alphabet's existing contract with Zaragosa, I'll play. If not, just remember sixty mill on payroll. With 41 home games, and a team being expected to spend $60m on payroll, the difference between Milwaukee bringing in 730k per game and the Knicks bringing in $2.3m is clearly important. http://wagesofwins.com/2013/03/28/the-best-nba-markets-of-2012-13/ http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm (oih yeah ... and that NBA lockout ? Management lied through their teeth)
Storm Boy
Guest
"The dirtiest secret of the Code Wars is that the codes arent in competition with each other." Come on. There's a limited amount of tv money, sponsor money and corporate spending on boxes. Of course the codes are in competition and some win while some lose. Fans at games are a long last in importance now. Look how financially big the NBA and NHL are and how little crowd numbers they have.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Storm Boy, The dirtiest secret of the Code Wars is that the codes arent in competition with each other. They are in competition with a culture of not turning up to see live sport. Theres enough sports fans out there for everyone, if we can get them off their couches. Specifically, theres a nice little rectangular stadium in Perth that isnt in regular use during the winter, theres a bunch of eastern states miners working out west who love their league, and theres a bunch of money in Perth. Putting the National into the National Rugby League should be a no-brainer.